Russian forces conducted limited missile strikes against Ukraine during the day on June 28.
Ukrainian military officials reported that Russian forces struck Odesa City with a ballistic missile, likely an Iskander-M armed with cluster munitions.[75] Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Military Administration Head Serhii Lysak reported that Russian forces conducted an unspecified missile strike against Dnipro City.[76]
Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast Military Administration Head Svitlana Onyshchuk reported on June 28 that previous Russian missile strikes have damaged the Burshtyn Thermal Power Plant (BTPP) so severely that Ukraine cannot repair it.[77] Onyshchuk reported that Russian forces have launched over 12 missiles against the BTPP, and Ukrainian outlet Suspilne Ivano-Frankivsk reported that Russian forces have conducted strikes against the energy infrastructure in Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast at least five times between March 22 and June 1.[78]
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Ukrainian forces reportedly struck an oil depot in Russia on June 28 and reportedly struck a microelectronics plant and a military unit on the night of June 27 to 28. Tambov Oblast Governor Maksim Yegorov claimed that a drone struck an oil depot in Michurinsky Raion and started a fire on the morning of June 28.[9] Russian opposition outlet Astra stated that the drone hit the Transnefteprodukt "Nikolskoe" linear production and dispatch station in Novonikolskoe.[10] Astra also reported that Ukrainian forces struck an unspecified military unit in Karachev, Bryansk Oblast and the "Kremniy El" microelectronics plant in Bryansk City - one of the largest microelectronics manufacturers in Russia that makes components for military equipment - on the night of June 27 to 28.[11] Bryansk Oblast Governor Alexander Bogomaz claimed that Russian forces suppressed a Ukrainian drone with electronic warfare (EW) over Bryansk City and that drone debris damaged an administrative building.[12] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces destroyed 12 drones over Bryansk Oblast but did not mention any drone strikes against Tambov Oblast.[13]
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The Ukrainian Armed Forces Center for Strategic Communications (StratCom) reported on June 28 that Ukrainian forces have damaged or destroyed more than 30 Russian military aircraft in the first six months of 2024, although ISW cannot confirm this report fully. Ukrainian StratCom stated that Ukrainian forces destroyed or damaged nine Su-25 aircraft, one Su-57 aircraft, two MiG-31 aircraft, roughly 13 Su-34 aircraft, two Su-35 aircraft, two A-50 long-range radar detection aircraft, one Il-22M11 airborne command post aircraft, and one Tu-22M3 strategic bomber in the first six months of 2024.[14] Ukrainian StratCom stated that most of the strikes against the Russian aircraft occurred in occupied Ukraine except for a handful of strikes over the Sea of Azov and within Russia.[15] Ukrainian StratCom did not specify what portion of these Ukrainian strikes were air defense interceptions of Russian aircraft in flight and what percentage were strikes against Russian aircraft at airfields. Russian officials acknowledged that Ukrainian forces downed an A-50 long-range radar detection aircraft in February 2024 after Ukrainian forces reportedly shot down another A-50 aircraft and Il-22M11 airborne command post aircraft in January 2024.[16] Satellite imagery indicates that Ukrainian strikes damaged at least one Russian Su-57 in June 2024, and footage indicates that Ukrainian forces downed a Russian Tu-22M3 strategic bomber in mid-April.[17] Satellite imagery indicates that Ukrainian forces destroyed two MiG-31 aircraft in occupied Crimea in an ATACMS strike in May 2024.[18] Ukrainian officials reported the downing of numerous Su-34 aircraft in February and March 2024, although ISW cannot verify these reports or Ukrainian StratCom's figures concerning Su-34, Su-35, and Su-25 aircraft.[19] The downing of Russian aircraft, especially critical aircraft like the A-50 and Il-22, has previously temporarily constrained Russian aviation activities over occupied Ukraine, but Ukrainian forces have yet to be able to significantly attempt to contest the air domain.[20] Ukrainian officials have routinely highlighted a need for additional air defense assets and advanced fighter aircraft in order to significantly contest the air domain and pursue air parity with Russian forces.[21] Russian forces have exploited continued constraints on Ukraine's air defense umbrella to field Russian tactical aircraft regularly along the frontline that conduct widespread glide bomb strikes against Ukrainian positions in support of ongoing Russian offensive operations.[22]
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Ukraine's forces may have struck Russia's newest S-500 air-defense system using U.S.-supplied ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile System) missiles, according to a journalist in the country.
"It is reported that the newest Russian S-500 air defense system was destroyed by ATACMS cluster missiles. The cost of one of these reaches $600 million," Andriy Tsaplienko, a Ukrainian journalist, said on his Telegram channel, without elaborating on when or where the system was allegedly destroyed.
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- Russian President Vladimir Putin directed on June 28 the production and deployment of nuclear-capable short- and intermediate-range missiles following the American withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty in 2019, likely as part of the Kremlin's ongoing reflexive control campaign to influence Western decision making in Russia's favor.
- Ukrainian forces reportedly struck an oil depot in Russia on June 28 and reportedly struck a microelectronics plant and a military unit on the night of June 27 to 28.
- The Ukrainian Armed Forces Center for Strategic Communications (StratCom) reported on June 28 that Ukrainian forces have damaged or destroyed more than 30 Russian military aircraft in the first six months of 2024, although ISW cannot confirm this report fully.
- Many Russian elites have reportedly shifted from criticizing Russia's war effort in Ukraine to supporting it because they assess that Russia is prevailing.
- Russian officials called for harsher punishments in Russia's criminal system, likely in response to the recent terrorist attacks in Dagestan.
- Russia may be creating a shadow fleet to transport Russian liquified natural gas (LNG) and circumvent Western sanctions.
- Ukrainian forces recently regained lost positions near Vovchansk and Kreminna, and Russian forces recently advanced near Chasiv Yar.
- Russian opposition outlet Vazhnye Istorii used Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) data to estimate that over 71,000 Russian men died in the war in Ukraine in 2022 and 2023.
Ukrainian forces recently recaptured positions in northern Kharkiv Oblast amid continued fighting in the area on June 28. Geolocated footage published on June 28 indicates that Ukrainian forces recently advanced within central Vovchansk (northeast of Kharkiv City) along Heoriv Chornobylya Street.[33] A Ukrainian drone battalion commander operating in the Kharkiv direction reported on June 28 that the situation in northern Kharkiv Oblast has stabilized and that Russian forces have not made any significant progress since roughly June 12.[34] The drone battalion commander stated that Russian forces are using both "Storm" assault units staffed with poorly trained personnel and regular Russian units in the Kharkiv direction. The drone battalion commander also reported that Russian forces are quickly replenishing their losses in the area despite suffering heavy losses. Fighting continued near and within Vovchansk on June 28.[35] Elements of the Russian engineering "Phoenix" Battalion are reportedly attempting to remotely mine areas in northern Kharkiv Oblast.[36]
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