• IN-Gov, IN-04: Monday was the deadline for major-party nominees in Indiana to take their names off the general election ballot, and―despite speculation to the contrary―no notable candidates ended their campaigns.
The Democratic nominee for governor remains Jennifer McCormick, a former Republican state education superintendent who won her new party's primary without opposition in May.
Powerful Republican attorney Jim Bopp instigated rumors that she'd drop out last month after far-right pastor Micah Beckwith won the party convention for lieutenant governor, a development he argued would hurt the party's nominee for governor, Sen. Mike Braun. (Nominees for governor and lieutenant governor are selected separately in the Hoosier State but run together as a ticket in the general election.)
However, while Bopp predicted in a memo that McCormick would step aside so that party leaders could replace her with former Sen. Joe Donnelly, there was never any indication that Democrats were considering such a swap. McCormick's team quickly said she would not be dropping out, while Donnelly, who recently finished his stint as ambassador to the Vatican, didn't show any obvious interest in running.
McCormick and her running mate, former state House Minority Leader Terry Goodin, will be the underdogs in a conservative state. Braun also ended June with a $1.7 million to $700,000 cash advantage over McCormick.
Over in the 4th District, meanwhile, GOP Rep. Jim Baird remains his party's nominee for his safely red constituency despite some chatter last year about his plans.
Howey Politics relayed speculation in September that Baird could retire this cycle and time his departure to ensure that his son, state Rep. Beau Baird, would succeed him without facing any serious intraparty opposition. However, while one unnamed source confidently predicted that the elder Baird was "definitely not going to end up running," the congressman proved this skeptic wrong by easily claiming—and then keeping—his party's nomination.
• NC-Gov, NC-AG, NC Supreme Court: North Carolina Democrats hold a huge financial advantage in the races for governor and attorney general, according to new campaign finance reports. The situation is different in the race for a crucial seat on the state Supreme Court, though, as Republican Jefferson Griffin finished June with a small cash edge over appointed Democratic Justice Allison Riggs.
We'll begin with the state's most prominent downballot contest: the race to succeed termed-out Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper. Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein outpaced his far-right rival, Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, $13.8 million to $5.1 million during the period of Feb. 18 to June 30. Stein likewise finished with a $15.9 million to $6.6 million cash advantage.
Over in the contest to replace Stein as attorney general, Democratic Rep. Jeff Jackson took in $4.2 million during this time―about three times as much as Republican colleague Dan Bishop's $1.4 million haul. Jackson ended June with $5.7 million in the bank, while Bishop, who is a notorious election denier, had $2.7 million available.
Riggs, for her part, outraised Griffin $650,000 to $464,000, but it was the Republican who ended last month with a $1.4 million to $1.1 million cash advantage. Democrats, as we've written before, need to hold this seat in November as part of a multicycle plan that represents their only realistic path toward rolling back the GOP's iron grip on state politics.
• NJ-Gov: Several powerful Democrats in populous Hudson County announced Tuesday that they would support Rep. Josh Gottheimer should he run to succeed termed-out Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy next year.
The New Jersey Globe's David Wildstein reports that this group includes County Executive Craig Guy, who is also the county party chair, and Union City Mayor Brian Stack. Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop, who leads the largest city in Hudson County, is running, and Wildstein writes that he and Stack have a contentious relationship.
• WA-Gov: SurveyUSA, polling on behalf of the Seattle Times, finds that Democratic Attorney General Bob Ferguson and former Republican Rep. Dave Reichert remain poised to advance past the Aug. 6 top-two primary for governor of Washington. Ferguson leads with 42%, while Reichert leads his fellow Republican, former Richland school board member Semi Bird, 33-7 for the second spot in the fall general election. Another 4% goes to Democratic state Sen. Mark Mullet.
This release did not include numbers testing Ferguson and Reichert in their likely general election battle to succeed Gov. Jay Inslee, a Democrat who is retiring after three terms as chief executive.
• FL-01: Florida Patriots PAC opens its new commercial against Republican Rep. Matt Gaetz by reminding primary voters of some of the most salacious allegations that have been leveled against the incumbent. "According to a witness, Congressman Matt Gaetz has sex with a 17-year-old girl" in 2017, the narrator says at the ad’s start.
The narrator then brings up former Seminole County Tax Collector Joel Greenberg, a onetime Gaetz friend who pleaded guilty to sex trafficking of a minor in 2021. "His 'wingman' Joel Greenberg later tells investigators that Gaetz had sex with the underage girl and knew she was getting paid."
After accusing the congressman of paying Greenberg to "'hit up' the same teenage girl," the narrator warns that "your daughters are never safe with the real Matt Gaetz." The congressman has denied the allegations.
Florida Patriots PAC, according to FEC reports, has spent $1.5 million so far to attack Gaetz or promote Navy veteran Aaron Dimmock, who is challenging him in the Aug. 20 primary for the 1st District. The group is funded entirely by America Fund, an organization that also financed the effort to deny renomination to Virginia Rep. Bob Good last month. (Good has requested a recount following his apparent loss against John McGuire.)
Gaetz, like Good, was one of the eight Republicans who voted to end Kevin McCarthy's speakership last year, and McCarthy is reportedly trying to unseat Gaetz as part of a "revenge tour." Gaetz, though, recently publicized an internal poll from Fabrizio, Lee & Associates that gave him a huge 67-20 advantage over Dimmock. No one, including the challenger, has released any contradictory data so far.
• MO-03: State Rep. Justin Hicks announced Tuesday that he was dropping out of the Aug. 6 Republican primary for Missouri's conservative 3rd District, a move he said he made to honor Donald Trump's decision to back former state Sen. Bob Onder. But Hicks, who did not mention or endorse Onder himself, was already struggling to raise money or pick up big-name support even before Trump made his preference clear.
Onder and former state Sen. Kurt Schaefer remain the front-runners to succeed retiring GOP Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer, who supports Schaefer.