UPDATE: Wednesday, Jul 3, 2024 · 3:48:27 PM +00:00
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RedTwo
We now have some battleground state polling info from CBS.
Bottom line: they report no change at all in the battleground states. Nationally, only a 1-point drop.
"No statistically significant movement, and an essentially tied head-to-head race still."
With both the pundits and media, as well as the masses, so eager to post their hot takes on whether Biden should stay in the race or step down, it's mind-boggling to me why no one waited for any data to come in before making a snap judgement. In particular, if we're all worried what the voting population thinks, why not wait until some polling comes in? Yes, polling has its deficiencies, but taken in aggregate, there is still great utility, especially in looking at the trends.
Ideally, we should wait until a full polling cycle to occur before trying to draw any conclusions, but since this is a pressing issue, I thought that I would share the seven post-debate polls so far. So, what do they say. Overall, they indicate a 1.0-point drop for Biden.
So, the race has essentially stayed the same. But what does that suggest? As elections data expert Lakshya Jain notes, that the polling moved so little supports the idea that our opinions of both candidates were already "priced in." That is, we all pretty much knew that Biden was old and the Orange A-hole was a firehouse of lies that is a threat to our democracy. The debate simply reinforced that. And so far, the polling indicates that voters have largely accounted for this anyway.
Alternatively, maybe the debate damaged Biden and the Orange Douchebag, and that's why the polling average (so far) moved so little.
In addition, it should be noted that the effect of any particular event, like a convention or debate, is often short-lived. Oftentimes, a candidate will get a surge of enthusiasm from their national convention or a debate win (a "bounce"), but that will often dissipate over time. To get a true gauge of any lasting effect, data experts say that you have to wait a cycle or two to see the net effect. Usually we see bounces off 3.0+ after a convention, so a 1.0-point bounce (so far) is relatively small.
As it stands now, there is little evidence to suggest that Biden should step down. In Lakshya Jain's view, "the danger to his candidacy comes from Democrats panicking about its implications."
That said, I am pretty sure that there are folks out there that are still concerned and would like Biden to step down. How about we wait for at another week's worth of polling (but ideally two), and then re-evaluate?
If the rest of the poll cycle dramatically alters the average poll shift to something really frightening, then, yes, we obviously have to consider putting in Kamala.
Whoever winds up our nominee, my wife and I will be working our asses off. With three little toddlers, we do not want them to grow up in a kingdom instead of a DEMOCRACY, with fewer rights (abortion, voter suppression separation of church and state, same-sex marriage, etc.). And I would implore all of us to do the same. The polling continues to show that this race is statistically tied and eminently winnable, so let's go do it this November!