I posted a diary — "It's Over for Biden" — this morning, and took a lot of flak for it. Rather than respond to all the comments there (some of which were favorable), I decided to start a new story to explain why I really do believe it’s over for Biden and he should bow out of the race.
First, Biden made an unforced error yesterday: Biden’s latest excuse: Blame it on the travel
President Joe Biden is now chalking up his fumbling debate performance to a heavy travel schedule ahead of the face-off with Donald Trump — the latest in a series of explanations for an episode that has caused some Democrats to call for him to drop his reelection bid.
The president told donors Tuesday that he was offering “not an excuse but an explanation” for his struggles during the debate.
There are two big problems with this line of explanation. First, Biden (and/or his staff) organized those major trips precisely to show of Biden’s stamina. So blaming the trips for his lack of stamina during the debate completely undercuts that rationale. Second, Biden came back from the trips eleven days before the debate, and spent much of that time holed up at Camp David preparing (IMO overpreparing) for the debate. If he couldn’t recover from jet lag or trip stress in 11 days, in an environment specifically designed to provide R&R for the president, he doesn’t have the stamina to be president.
There is also a third problem, of a more general nature: In politics, if you’re explaining, you’re losing. President Biden shouldn’t have to explain. But he does.
Second, yes, the media does have it in for Biden, particularly the New York Times, which remains miffed that Biden will not genuflect to their greatness and consent to an interview. But that doesn’t mean that the media is wrong. Biden hasn’t given anywhere near the number of interviews to any media outlet that his predecessors have. The media is also paying way way too little attention to Trump’s many significant gaffes and nonsense, and way too much to Biden’s slips — but, again, that doesn’t mean Biden’s problems aren’t real. At some point, this becomes blaming the messenger for the message.
And it’s not just the NYT. MSNBC, Biden’s equivalent of Fox News (though far more honest), sat in shock after the debate and never really had anything good to say about Biden (though plenty bad to say about Trump).
Third, Trump would much rather run against Biden, this Biden, than anyone else. Aside from the fact that he hates Biden personally, he has to know this is the easiest Democrat to beat now. The Trump campaign is uncharacteristically laying low for now, saying very little about Biden’s performance (though I did hear a leak that Trump himself was shocked at how Biden looked and performed). Normally Trump would seize on any slip (or even make one up) to put down an opponent (or a one—time ally). Yes, this could be gaslighting, but I don’t think so. I will bet the three bridges I just bought against a stale doughnut that, five minutes after Biden gets the nomination, the Trump campaign will release a series of ads using clips of Biden at the debate — shuffling onto the stage, staring open-mouthed at Trump (for his brazen lies, but that doesn’t matter), and perhaps closing with Trump’s more-in-sorrow-than-anger comment that he couldn’t understand what the president had just said. (Neither could I.) It will be devastating, because it is all true.
(There will be no second debate. Trump got exactly what he wanted from this one, and he sure as hell isn’t going to give Biden a chance to redeem himself.)
There’s also this report that just showed up: Inside the GOP Effort to Make Sure Biden Is the Democratic Nominee (this assumes that the Democratic convention nominates Biden, which they haven’t yet).
Fourth, the NYT anonymous “ally” story notwithstanding, there are an increasing number of Democrats willing to go public with their concerns. That is not a good way to project confidence in the candidate.
WaPo: A shift in how Democrats talk about Biden’s dropping out
Nancy Pelosi:
[O]n Tuesday, Pelosi called it a “legitimate question to say is [Biden’s debate performance] an episode or is this a condition” — saying the same of Donald Trump, for good measure — and suggested this was a conversation Democrats needed to have.
Pelosi — who is Biden’s age — is one of the most canny politicians of the past 2 or 3 generations. If she is saying this in public, she knows what the impact of her words will be. Jim Clyburn, Andy Beshear, J.B. Pritzker, are all also quoted on the record. These are major players in the Democratic party, and they know that every word they say on this topic will be dissected.
These are not the kinds of things you say if this isn’t something you want Biden to at least think about. And they are a marked contrast to the Biden campaign’s line that this just isn’t a consideration at all. . . . You don’t entertain those questions unless you think it’s a vital conversation, because the conversation itself could damage Biden by elevating these concerns.
And this: House Democratic leadership to hold call as anxiety over Biden rises (Hakeem Jeffries says he is reserving comment — another bad sign).
And this: (ABC) Biden privately signals 'open mind' on path forward, sees next few days as critical (though the White House pushed back on this as well).
Fifth, while it’s not my main point here, I have now become confident that Harris can beat Trump. She has gained a lot of seasoning; she is a successful Black woman and former prosecutor — exactly a combination that can snap back at Trump in ways that Biden should have and didn’t. (While I was watching that debate, I came up with any number of retorts on the spot that Biden could and should have used, e.g., instead of getting into that ridiculous golf hissy fit, he should have said — “you spent your whole time in office playing golf — and cheating at it — instead of doing your job.”) Harris will also stop whatever hemorrhaging of Blacks, other minorities, and women that the Democrats may be experiencing — and these are the voters who are most important ones to reach. Harris can also defend the Biden record — which is well worth defending. She will also make Trump look old — a tactic Biden can no longer use himself.
(Also, Harris can legally tap into all the funds Biden/Harris raised for the election. It’s not clear to me that another candidate could do so as easily.)
Other side note: Biden should not resign and let Harris take over now. For one thing, as VP she has all the time she needs to campaign; as president, she would have to run the country at the same time, and both are full-time jobs. Plus, it would put Mike Johnson next in line; how much do you want to bet some religious fanatic would sacrifice themselves while assassinating Harris if it meant putting a real religious nut (as opposed to the fake one, Trump) in charge of the country? The risk is too great.
I write this mostly in sorrow, and some anger, and a lot of fear. I wanted Biden to succeed, not just because he would keep the Republican wolves at bay, but because he is a genuinely good man and a very effective president. But as I watched that debate — and I made myself sit through the whole thing — my thoughts were that the job has drained him, as it drains anyone who puts in what the job demands (which immediately excludes Trump). I had this awful image in my mind of the Biden who was on that stage sitting down with Putin or Xi and trying to cope with them. He may have had good moments since, but moments are not enough. A president needs to be on the alert all the time — the 3 AM phone call moment. It was Biden’s own performance that convinced me we need a different candidate.