Rep. Matt Salmon is considering a primary campaign against John McCain
On Tuesday, Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick announced that she would challenge Republican Sen. John McCain, but the senator may have more immediate problems. Republican Rep. Matt Salmon initially showed little interest in opposing McCain in the primary, but he
began to change his tune in April. Conservative groups like the Club for Growth and FreedomWorks have been working hard to recruit Salmon, and the congressman's camp is letting them know that their efforts are bearing fruit. An unnamed source close to Salmon tells
The National Journal that Salmon is "
taking a serious look," at running, and will likely decide by early August.
If Salmon gets in, McCain is not going to have an easy time beating him back. A May PPP survey gave McCain a wretched 41-50 approval rating with primary voters, and found McCain beating Salmon only 42-40. We haven't seen any other recent primary polls, according to Salmon's allies, they've seen similar numbers. McCain is no pushover, and he proved in 2010 that he's willing to exploit his opponent's weakness. It's also far from clear if state Sen. Kelli Ward will get out of Salmon's way if he jumps in, or if she'll take away some anti-McCain votes that he could badly use. Still, there's little doubt that the GOP base is tired of McCain and that they'll take a serious look at an alternative.
Team Blue will be rooting for a bloody McCain-Salmon primary, but it's anyone's guess who would be an easier general election opponent. PPP found McCain very unpopular statewide with a 36-51 approval rating, while Salmon is more of a blank slate with a 22-25 favorable score. (Salmon lost the 2002 gubernatorial contest by just 1 percent, but it's not shocking that many voters have forgotten about him since then.) However, Salmon's tea party stances could cost him some support even in this conservative state, and his poor relationship with GOP leaders could hamper him in a general election. No matter what, both parties will be watching Salmon's moves closely.