Polls:
- AK-AL: Public Policy Polling (D) for Tech Solidarity: Don Young (R-inc): 46, Alyse Galvin (I): 43
- MN-08: Siena for the New York Times: Pete Stauber (R): 49, Joe Radinovich (D): 34 (Sept.: 44-43 Radinovich)
- NC-13: SurveyUSA for Civitas Institute (R): Ted Budd (R-inc): 44, Kathy Manning (D): 41 (July: 40-35 Budd)
- NJ-03: Stockton University: Tom MacArthur (R-inc): 47, Andy Kim (D): 45
- NY-01: GBA Strategies (D) for Perry Gershon: Lee Zeldin (R-Inc): 50, Perry Gershon (D): 46
- PA-01: Public Opinion Strategies (R) for the NRCC: Brian Fitzpatrick (R-inc): 50, Scott Wallace (D): 42
- PA-01: Siena for the New York Times: Wallace (D): 50, Fitzpatrick (R-inc): 43
- UT-04: University of Utah for the Salt Lake Tribune: Ben McAdams (D): 46, Mia Love (R-inc): 46 (June: 45-39 Love)
- VA-02: Christopher Newport University: Scott Taylor (R-inc): 50, Elaine Luria (D): 43
- WA-03: Lake Research (D) for Carolyn Long: Carolyn Long (D): 45, Jamie Herrera Beutler (R-inc): 43 (June: 42-37 Herrera Beutler)
The Alaska poll was done for Tech Solidarity, which has endorsed several Democrats in House contests, including Galvin. The poll identifies Galvin, who won the Democratic primary even though she isn't registered with either party, as an independent. (Galvin will be listed on the ballot with a U next to her name for undeclared, as well as the phrase "Alaska Democratic Party Nominee" off to the right.) A recent survey from local pollster Alaska Survey Research, which identified Galvin the same way, gave Young a similar 50-46 edge.
Siena finds a massive swing to the right over the last month in Minnesota's 8th, an open and ancestrally blue seat that veered from 52-46 Obama all the way to 54-39 Trump. The only other poll we've seen here was a Radinovich internal from the end of September that gave him a bare 45-44 lead, which is the same margin that the first Siena poll found. One other difference between the two polls was this time, Siena asked about Independence Party nominee Skip Sandman, who takes 4 percent of the vote; the Times says Sandman, who earned 4 percent when he ran as a Green in 2016, takes almost all of his support from voters who disapprove of Trump.
One other big difference between the two Siena samples is how popular Trump is. In early September, Trump posted just a 47-48 approval rating, while he’s at 54-38 in their new survey. By contrast, the HuffPost Pollster average found Trump going from a 42-53 approval rating on Sept. 9 (when the first Siena poll was finished) to a slightly-better 44-52 score now.
That doesn’t mean we should just dismiss this new result, though, since it's possible Trump’s numbers just disproportionately improved in this rural seat or that the first poll’s sample wasn’t conservative enough. The Times’ Nate Cohn also explored Siena’s big shift between polls and suggested that part of the move might be real, but part might be due to the lack of party registration data in Minnesota, which makes it hard to weight a poll like this properly.
In New York’s 1st, Gershon released his poll a few days after Siena found him down 49-41. A mid-September Gershon poll from a different firm (Global Strategy Group) found Zeldin up 47-44, which is similar to what this new poll finds.
In Pennsylvania’s 1st, in an odd move, the Times announced on Saturday afternoon that they'd keep polling there even though they'd hit the 500 sample their polls aim for, with Cohn tweeting that they "didn't successfully execute our game plan and we're going to need more calls to make up for it. Most/all of those calls will go to registered Republicans."
Cohn didn’t specify what that “game plan” was or where it went awry, but Wallace held a 10-point lead when the poll had 500 respondents, and he ended up with a 7-point edge when all was said and done. (While the poll was still running, with Wallace far ahead, the NRCC released its survey.) The only other poll we've seen over the last month was a late September Monmouth poll that gave Fitzpatrick a 50-46 lead.
This is the second poll of Utah's 4th to show movement toward McAdams. A recent McAdams internal gave him a 47-46 lead after he trailed 46-44 in August.
An early October Siena poll of Virginia's 2nd found Taylor up 49-41, which is very similar to what Christopher Newport finds now; an early September Luria internal found a very different result, putting her ahead 51-43. This new poll also finds Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine beating Republican Corey Stewart 47-42 in this seat; Trump won 49-45 here as he was losing statewide 50-44, though Gov. Ralph Northam carried this district 51-47 while he was winning 54-45 statewide.
This is the only poll we've seen of Washington's 3rd since Long's last internal in June, though Siena has now begun polling here.