As the election count continues, Kristen Sinema, the next Senator from Arizona, leads at this writing by 30K. In the House, the Democrats will flip between 36-39 seats. At state level, D’s won 7 governors and 6 trifectas (Gov, House, Senate). So even without Florida, Election Day 2018 was a full blown disaster for Republicans and a repudiation at national level.
Yes, redder areas went crimson. No, that’s not the majority of the country. Democrats will win the popular vote by 7%. (The generic ballot poll averages were spot on and told us what was coming, maybe underestimating a tad.) House popular vote as of now represented a 4.4% swing in our favor from 2016. And exit polls, flawed though they may be, suggest the Democrats won indies by 12 points (in 2016 D’s lost those voters by 4 points). Interestingly, D’s and Rs were way more partisan this election (only 4% this year voted for the other party, compared to 8% in 2016), so independents are how we won. They also suggest Democrats winning on the issues (more below).
Brookings:
The 2018 exit polls indicate that a considerable share of Democratic gains came from shifts in white voting patterns, even as Democrats retained strong support from racial minorities. Moreover, in key Midwest statewide elections, Democrats lost fewer white working-class male votes while retaining support among white female college graduate voters.
That’s not to say we won everything. Florida is being Florida, and the lost Senators were a good bunch that did the right thing on Brett Kavanaugh.
CNN:
Voters didn't support Kavanaugh's appointment to the Supreme Court
Almost half of voters opposed Brett Kavanaugh's confirmation to the Supreme Court, according to preliminary data from CNN's national exit polls. A little over 40% supported his appointment. Around half of men supported Kavanaugh's confirmation compared to fewer than 40% of women who voted in this election, a significant gender divide.
On Roe v. Wade, two-thirds of 2018 voters said they would like to keep the landmark Supreme Court decision in place while only a quarter want it overturned. More than 80% said that sexual harassment is a very or somewhat serious problem in our country today and almost half said it's very serious.
And we are already moving to 2020, but don’t worry, there’s still time to argue persuasion vs turnout (Narrator: it’s always both.)
NY Times:
Democrats Have Two Paths for 2020: Daring or Defensive. Can They Settle on Either?
For Democrats, the victories, near wins and stinging losses on Tuesday have intensified a debate in the party about how to retake the White House, with moderates arguing they must find a candidate who can appeal to President Trump’s supporters and historically Republican suburbanites, and progressives claiming they need someone with the raw authenticity to electrify the grass roots.
Rather than clarifying which strategy to adopt for 2020, the patchwork of outcomes has only deepened the disagreements. Both wings of the party are now wielding fresh evidence from the midterm results to make their case about the best path to assemble 270 electoral votes and oust Mr. Trump from office.
At the center of the dispute is Representative Beto O’Rourke of Texas, who has not even said he would consider a 2020 bid but whose competitive campaign against Senator Ted Cruz galvanized Democrats nationwide.
The schism reflects the party’s longstanding internecine tensions, which flared again this year when insurgents on the left challenged establishment-aligned candidates while voicing urgent calls for change and a more confrontational approach to the president.
Near wins and stinging losses? Must be they meant for Republicans. Kris Kobach and Scott Walker won’t be governors, Karen Handel and Dana Rohrbacher can retire and make mischief somewhere other than Congress, Maine turned blue and so did Arizona. And even without a Beto win, thanks to him, Texas showed us their potential future with wins at local level, including judgeships. John Culberson and Pete Sessions aren’t in Congress now.
But the article is correct, it’s an argument we are going to have — from a position of strength.
The other problem with that article and all “what will happen in 2020” pieces is a forced blindness: you are forced to do analysis with what you know, the known knowns. No Mueller report, Trump embarrassment, unknown war or disaster, etc. permitted. Yet those known unknowns will change the landscape immeasurably, and that doesn’t even include the unknown unknowns.
It’s comforting to think you can game it all out now, but guess what? You can’t. Sorry about the hot takes. Maybe you can sell them on eBay. But I’ll give you one: Stacey Abrams, Beto O’Rourke and Andrew Gillum winning or losing by a few thousand votes are the same story either way: talented Democratic politicians who changed how we think about electability in areas we have had trouble winning. They represent at least part of the party’s future.
Josh Kraushaar/National Journal:
Why Trump Should Be Worried About 2020
The unstable coalition between suburban conservatives and blue-collar populists is showing signs of strain heading into the presidential election.
What should worry Trump is the GOP’s glaring slippage in the suburbs, where brand-name Republicans were unable to sustain the unstable coalition of white-collar professionals and populist-minded Trump fans that propelled so many down-ballot Republicans to victory in 2016. In Wisconsin, Walker lost serious ground in the deeply conservative suburban stronghold in Waukesha County. Pragmatic Rep. Martha McSally of Arizona, who evolved into a Trump ally running for the Senate, is lagging behind Trump’s performance in vote-rich Maricopa County (Phoenix). Her inability to hit Trump’s vote share in the state—despite her pandering to his supporters—shows how hard it will be for Republicans to play both sides of the intraparty divide.
Even in races where Republicans won—holding off Beto O’Rourke in the Texas Senate race and defeating Stacey Abrams in the Georgia governor’s race—there were ominous trend lines for the GOP. Abrams, despite running a progressive campaign in a red state, notably improved on Hillary Clinton’s performance in the suburban Atlanta counties that were once solidly Republican. Democratic dominance in the Texas population centers brought O’Rourke within 2 points of Sen. Ted Cruz, and flipped House seats around Houston and Dallas. If the Trump campaign has to invest valuable money in Texas and Georgia in 2020, that bodes poorly for his reelection chances (even if he holds onto both states). The shifts in these states are a lot more about Trump than about the celebrity Democratic candidates.
Oh, and if you ask the Washington Post pundits:
Musa al-Gharbi: If the midterms were a referendum, Trump won
Joe Scarborough: Trump lost. And it wasn’t even close.
Jennifer Rubin: Three days later: Hey, Republicans really did get clobbered
Hope that clears it up for you.
By the way, Arizona appears to be doing a good job in fairly counting votes. No voter fraud, and Martha McSally is not posturing.
Politico:
Trump’s rain decision casts dark clouds over his Paris trip
'Those veterans the president didn’t bother to honor fought in the rain, in the mud, in the snow,' John Kerry writes.
The internet lit up Saturday and Sunday with images of other world leaders braving gray skies to lay wreaths, unveil plaques, and pay their respects at memorial and cemeteries outside of Paris during a weekend to commemorate the 100th anniversary of the end of World War I.
French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel lay a floral wreath on Saturday afternoon at Compiègne, the site where the agreement that stopped World War I was signed. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau visited the World War I battlefield, Vimy Ridge, where he greeted Canadian veterans.
Axios:
House Democrats plan to investigate whether President Trump abused White House power by targeting — and trying to punish with "instruments of state power" — The Washington Post and CNN, incoming House intelligence committee chairman Adam Schiff said in an interview for "Axios on HBO."
Why it matters: Until now, all Trump critics could do is complain about his escalating attacks on the media. With subpoena power and public hearings, the incoming House Democratic majority can demand emails and testimony to see if Trump used “the instruments of state power to punish the press,” Schiff said.
“It is very squarely within our responsibility to find out,” he said in the interview, which will air Sunday evening on HBO.
This is important, in the wave of multiple losses for the NRA in this election:
Megan L. Ranney, Heather Sher and Dara Kass/USA today:
Medical professionals to NRA: Guns are our lane. Help us reduce deaths or move over
The NRA should work with us to reduce the death toll from guns. We bear witness to this devastating epidemic. We're not-anti-gun, we're anti-bullet hole.
After the American College of Physicians released a paper last week about reducing firearm injuries and deaths in America, the NRA tweeted the statement: “Someone should tell self-important anti-gun doctors to stay in their lane.”
A couple of days later, the Centers for Disease Control published new data indicating that the death toll from gun violence in our nation continues to rise. As the NRA demanded that we doctors stay in our lane, we awoke to learn of the 307th mass shooting in 2018 with another 12 innocent lives lost to an entirely preventable cause of death — gun violence.
Every medical professional practicing in the United States has seen enough gun violence firsthand to deeply understand the toll that this public health epidemic is taking on our children, families, and entire communities.
It is long past time for us to acknowledge the epidemic is real, devastating, and has root causes that can be addressed to assuage the damage. We must all come together to find meaningful solutions to this very American problem.
Weekly Standard, who reported disparaging comments Steve King (Nazi-IA) made about immigrants:
A Note on Steve King
On Friday and Saturday, Congressman King sent several tweets criticizing THE WEEKLY STANDARD, claiming we knowingly posted false information and suggesting we weren’t releasing the audio because it doesn’t exist. “You heard it directly from Jeff King and chose to defend your junk yard dog. You refused to release the tape,” he wrote. He later added: “Just release the full tape. Leftists lies exist without original sources because they are false and manufactured accusations. Weekly Standard is transitioning into ‘Antifa News.’”
King's claims are false.
Here is the audio. The exchange, as transcribed, starts at about the 20-second mark. King is quoted accurately throughout.
I’ll finish with this: