The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● NY-22: This week, the New York Post uncovered a late July memo from a campaign consultant for GOP Rep. Claudia Tenney that warned staff and volunteers to watch out for their safety because of Democrat Anthony Brindisi's family. The memo read, "Brindisi's family has used their political connections to get away with violence, intimidation and thuggish behavior for years," and added, "As the Brindisi family watches Anthony's political career end, they may return to what they know—violence and intimidation."
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The memo didn't list anything about the candidate and instead focused on several allegations involving his father, attorney Louis Brindisi, and brother, Andrew Brindisi. Most of the alleged incidents are from the 1970s and 1980s, with the memo highlighting that Louis Brindisi used to represent mobsters: The older Brindisi had in fact stopped handling criminal cases in 1983 after his law partner was shot and killed inside his office. It also noted that he pleaded guilty to possession of cocaine over 25 years ago.
The memo also alleges that in 2014, Andrew Brindisi was accused of trying to murder a man with his car, but wasn't charged. A contemporary report from the Observer-Dispatch in Utica, New York, says that Andrew Brindisi was ticketed for driving away after crashing into a gas line. A man argued that Andrew Brindisi had run him over twice and hit the gas line on his third attempt, but Andrew Brindisi was never charged with this.
This isn't the first time that Tenney has played the "mafia" card regarding Anthony Brindisi. Last year she declared that Louis Brindisi was "very heavily involved with the organized crime in Utica for many years, representing them," and added, "I'm not saying Anthony is part of any of that but that's the family you come from." The candidate was not happy with this attack on his father, and members of the local Italian-American community, which consists of one in seven residents of the 22nd, condemned Tenney for using an anti-Italian slur.
Tenney doesn't seem to have changed much over the last year, and she did not distance herself from the memo. While she first insisted to the Post that she didn't blame Anthony Brindisi or his family, she immediately told them to "[l]ook at what the father has been charged with and somehow has been able to get out of … I've never even had a speeding ticket," and that her opponent's brother was "charged with running over a guy … It was caught on a camera and many police have said this should have been attempted murder. It was not." She also implied that Louis Brindisi's donations to the mayor of Utica helped Andrew Brindisi keep his job with the city.
Anthony Brindisi condemned Tenney, declaring, "To know that she's sitting in some room and feeling this immense pressure to attack my family and Italian-Americans as part of some plan to hold on to her seat is kind of sad, really." A few prominent local Republicans also said that his family should be left alone. Oneida County Executive Anthony Picente, who called Tenney a "national embarrassment" months ago, characterized Tenney's latest comments as "absurd, bigoted and shameful yet wholly unsurprising."
GOP state Sen. Joseph Griffo also condemned smears against Italian-Americans and added, "Disparaging stereotypes are disappointing and unnecessary. The Tenney campaign should refrain from ethnic smear tactics." We're not holding our breath on that.
Senate
● IN-Sen: While a pair of recent polls show a competitive race here, the Indianapolis Star reports that prominent Republicans are worried that Mike Braun is running a weak campaign against Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly. While the wealthy businessman poured $6.4 million into his campaign through the end of June, Braun said after the May primary that he wasn't planning to do the same thing for the general election, and unfortunately for Team Red, it seems he's keeping his word. The paper notes that Braun has not yet purchased any airtime for October, which has his allies worried.
And while the NRSC and the Senate Leadership Fund have been airing ads here, two major groups are still on the sidelines. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce spent $3.7 million during the 2016 Senate race but has yet to commit to spending here, while the Star writes that the Koch brothers’ Americans for Prosperity "interviewed Braun but decided not to directly support him."
Republicans have also faulted Braun for running a low-energy campaign. The Star reports that Donnelly has held more than twice as many campaign events as Braun since May, which is all the more remarkable since Donnelly has to commute to his day job in D.C., while Braun resigned from the state legislature last year to focus on this race. One Republican also criticized Braun's performance at campaign events, with talk radio host Rob Kendall saying of Braun's recent rally with Donald Trump, "He's in front of (thousands of) people at the Ford Center and it sounds like you're at a funeral."
However, there's no indication that national Republicans are even considering pulling back here. Indiana backed Trump 56-37, and even a weak Republican can win if enough voters still like the White House.
● WI-Sen: The super PAC Wisconsin Next, which is largely funded by billionaire Diane Hendricks and supports Republican Leah Vukmir, has launched its first general election TV spot against Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin. Wisconsin Politics reports that the size-of-the-buy is $610,000.
● Polls:
The GOP firm Vox Populi also resurfaced with polls in California, Tennessee, and Texas. However, the poll did not allow respondents to say they were undecided; instead, it instructed them to just pick the candidate they were leaning towards.
As we wrote in our post on how Daily Kos Elections reports and analyzes polls, we require any poll featured in the Digest to include voters who indicate that they're undecided. If a pollster does not allow voters to say they're still making up their minds and instead forces them to choose a side, like Vox Populi does, they're leaving out a critical piece of information about the state of the race—and not adhering to best practices.
Gubernatorial
● CO-Gov: The firm Medium Buying reports that Republican Walker Stapleton will begin his general election TV ad campaign on Oct. 4. However, his allies aren't leaving him to fend for himself while wealthy Democrat Jared Polis dominates the airwaves. The Colorado Sun reports that the RGA spent $1.1 million on TV ads from Aug. 30 through Sept. 12, a big increase from the $276,000 they deployed from July 28 to Aug. 29. Another conservative group, Colorado Campaign for Jobs and Opportunity, also spent $450,000 on TV over the last two weeks. On the other side, the DGA-backed Good Jobs Colorado spent $463,000 on TV ads during this time.
● NH-Gov: Republican Gov. Chris Sununu begins the general election with a big cash-on-hand advantage over Democrat Molly Kelly. Sununu held a $584,000 to $43,000 edge on Sept. 11, the day that Kelly won the Democratic nod. However, Kelly's team says that much of the money they spent during the primary was for the general election, including reservations for three weeks' worth of TV ads.
● Polls:
House
● CA-49: On Wednesday evening, Donald Trump announced he was nominating retiring GOP Rep. Darrell Issa to lead the U.S. Trade and Development Agency, a post that requires Senate confirmation.
● KS-02: The Congressional Leadership Fund's new ad against Democrat Paul Davis reuses an issue that dogged his unsuccessful 2014 gubernatorial campaign. The spot begins with the narrator asking, "What's worse than being caught at a strip club during a drug bust?" and goes on to say that Davis "was caught with a topless stripper standing over him in a VIP room at a strip club during a police drug raid." The commercial then charges Davis with voting to "allow strip clubs near our homes, churches, schools, and even daycare facilities." Four years ago the RGA ran a very similar attack ad. Davis ended up losing to GOP Gov. Sam Brownback 50-46 statewide, though he still carried this seat 51-45.
Back in 2014, the Coffeyville Journal reported that Davis was at a strip club receiving a lap dance when police raided the club on a drug bust. The incident took place in 1998, when Davis, who was not charged with any wrongdoing, was 26 years old. The club's owner, who was charged with distributing meth, was a client of Davis' law firm; Davis says he was brought to the club by his boss.
The Lawrence Journal-World explains the background for the CLF's charge that Davis voted to allow strip clubs to operate near children and families. Davis voted against a 2011 bill in the state legislature to prohibit sexually oriented businesses from operating within 1,000 feet of pre-existing schools, churches, day cares, and other facilities. The bill passed the state House, but died in the GOP-controlled Senate.
The CLF has run a number of other ads against Davis, but Republican Steve Watkins has been off the air since he won the early August primary. Local viewers may not see much from Watkins over the next few weeks either, since, the Journal-World reports, he also hasn't reserved any TV time in the Topeka area, nor has he issued any public statements to the media since he won the nomination.
A number of other Republicans are being a lot more vocal, but not the way Watkins may like. This week, 36 Kansas Republicans endorsed Davis, with many of them also backing Democrat Laura Kelly for governor.
● ME-02: The Bangor Daily News reports that the progressive group Patients for Affordable Drugs has launched a new $1 million TV, digital, and radio campaign against GOP Rep. Bruce Poliquin; their TV ad can be found here.
● MN-02, MN-03: PPP is out with two polls for the progressive group Protect Our Care that show two suburban Twin Cities Republican incumbents trailing. However, before we get to the results, we need to note that the horse race question for each poll came after voters were asked several questions about health care. Respondents were asked if they support or oppose the Affordable Care Act; whether they want to fix the law or repeal it and start over; whether they support GOP efforts to repeal it; and which party they trust on health care, before they were asked about the candidates themselves.
After all this, Democrat Angie Craig posted a small 48-45 edge over Republican Rep. Jason Lewis, while Democrat Dean Phillips had a large 52-39 lead over GOP incumbent Erik Paulsen in the 3rd. As we wrote in our post on how Daily Kos Elections reports and analyzes polls, we very much prefer polls to ask issue-related questions after the horse race numbers because these kinds of questions can "prime" voters to lean one way or the other, especially if they're on contentious topics.
● NY-27: On Wednesday, GOP Rep. Chris Collins told supporters in an email that he would indeed campaign for re-election to his seat and would serve a fourth term if he won. Collins, who was indicted for insider trading last month, had originally suspended his campaign so that local GOP leaders could pick a new nominee, but New York law made it very tough for them to find a way to replace him. Collins' attorney said Monday that the congressman would stay on the ballot, but it wasn't clear until now if the congressman would actively campaign or just hope the Republican-leaning nature of his seat would let him glide to victory.
● PA-01: GOP Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick is out with a TV spot that tries to connect Democrat Scott Wallace to Mumia Abu-Jamal, who is serving a life sentence for killing a Philadelphia police officer in 1981. The ad begins by praising Fitzpatrick's law enforcement career, before it shows an edited clip of a news anchor talking about the donations Wallace "made to a liberal organization … that has given a voice to the convicted cop killer Mumia Abu-Jamal." The narrator then quotes local law enforcement officials condemning Wallace, as the spot quickly intercuts between images of Wallace and Abu-Jamal.
As the Philadelphia Inquirer explains, Wallace's family foundation, the Wallace Global Fund, contributed millions to the nonprofit news organization Democracy Now!, which has interviewed and extensively covered Abu-Jamal. The paper also notes that it's a huge stretch to imply that the foundation's donations somehow equal the candidate's endorsement of Abu-Jamal.
However, don't expect the local GOP to stop trying to connect Abu-Jamal to every Democrat they possibly can with any argument, no matter how flimsy. In 2012, Fitzpatrick's brother, Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick, sent out robocalls during his successful campaign that declared that his opponent's husband had done legal work for a witness in Abu-Jamal's trial and for Abu-Jamal's literary agent.
● TX-32: The pro-Trump America First PAC has announced that they'll spend an additional $1 million to aid GOP Rep. Pete Sessions, on top of the $1.5 million they've already said they've committed.
● WI-01: The conservative Congressional Leadership Fund recently went up with a TV spot that declared that Democrat Randy Bryce had been arrested nine times, and now Bryce is up with a response ad. The candidate acknowledges he's "made mistakes in the past," and adds that "it's a shame that people feel that if they've had some brushes with the law or done something in the past, that it's going to disqualify them from being able to stand up for their neighbors."
Bryce says that "people do make mistakes," and that he was "raised to own up to what I did in the past that was wrong." He concludes that the race isn't about who is a more perfect person, but "about who understands the hardships that you're going to face in order to make your world a better place."
The CLF also recently ran a spot starring Bryce's brother, local police officer James Bryce, who said he'd be voting for Republican Bryan Steil. Randy Bryce's campaign soon sent out a letter to the Journal Sentinel from their mother, Nancy Bryce, who wrote, "There is now a group of people from Washington who consider it a good idea to pit my boys against each other for their own political gain," and added the CLF's ad was causing her pain. She continued by defending Randy Bryce from attempts to portray him as anti-police and called for Steil to disavow the ad and demand that it be taken down.
James Bryce responded by questioning the veracity of the letter, saying his "immediate response was that's not her. That's not her writing. That's not how she talks," and that "it's unconscionable that a campaign would take advantage of a vulnerable and elderly mother." However, Nancy Bryce soon told the Journal Sentinel that she indeed "did write the letter, and those are my words."
● House: The conservative Congressional Leadership Fund has announced $13 million in new ad reservations, including in several seats where they hadn't run ads before. We recently noted that the CLF was sending $2 million to aid Danny Tarkanian in Nevada's 3rd District, and we have more new commitment:
- IL-13: Rodney Davis (R-inc): $1 million
- MI-06: Fred Upton (R-inc): $400,000
- NC-02: George Holding (R-inc): $1.4 million
- NM-02: Yvette Herrell (R): $700,000
The most notable investment is the money to protect Holding, who faces Democrat Linda Coleman in a 53-44 Trump seat. Both a recent poll for Coleman and a poll for SurveyUSA for the conservative Civitas think tank gave Coleman a 1-point edge, and this is our first indication that national Republicans are truly worried. Neither the DCCC nor House Majority PAC appears to have committed any money here, though a progressive group called North Carolinians for a Fair Economy did air ads against Holding in July.
CLF's $700,000 reservation in New Mexico's 2nd, which backed Trump 50-40, also comes around the same time that the NRCC began airing ads here, while the DCCC also recently went up with a spot against Herrell. While a recent survey from Research & Polling gave Herrell a 48-41 lead over Democrat Xochitl Torres Small, Siena had Team Blue ahead 46-45 here. It's not clear who is closer to the mark, but the new outside spending indicates that both parties think this seat is very much in play.
CLF has also committed more money to races they were already advertising in. They'd already announced that they were spending $1.5 million to protect Paul Ryan's open seat in Wisconsin's 1st District, and they're also committing more money to:
- CA-10: Jeff Denham (R-inc): additional $180,000
- CA-39: Young Kim (R): additional $400,000
- CA-45: Mimi Walters (R-inc): additional $400,000
- IL-12: Mike Bost (R-inc): additional $600,000
- KS-02: Steve Watkins (R): additional $715,000
- NY-19: John Faso (R-inc): additional $650,000
- NY-22: Claudia Tenney (R): additional $1.2 million
- VA-07: Dave Brat (R-inc): additional $750,000
- TX-07: John Culberson (R-inc): additional $1 million
We also have some new sizes-of-the-buys for recent ads from House Majority PAC.
- MI-08: $68,000
- NJ-03: $350,000
- NJ-07: $219,000
- NY-19: $41,000 (includes just radio)
- NY-22: $238,000
- VA-02: $96,000
- VA-07: $141,000
The DCCC also threw down another $68,000 in KS-02.
● Polls:
- CA-25: Siena for the New York Times: Steve Knight (R-inc): 47, Katie Hill (D): 45
- FL-06: St. Pete Polls for Florida Politics: Michael Waltz (R): 48, Nancy Soderberg (D): 43
- NC-13: DCCC in-house: Kathy Manning (D): 46, Ted Budd (R-inc): 42
- NJ-07: Monmouth: Tom Malinowski (D): 46, Leonard Lance (R-inc): 43
We've seen at least one other poll for each of these races over the last few months.
In California, a late June poll from the Democratic firm Global Strategy Group for the League of Conservation Voters and the Environmental Defense Fund found Knight up 45-40, while a mid-July survey from the GOP firm IMGE Insights for the pro-net neutrality group the Internet Freedom Business Alliance had a 47-47 tie. The Siena poll gives Donald Trump a negative 43-52 approval rating in a northern Los Angeles County seat he lost 50-43, and finds that voters want a Democratic House over a Republican House by a small 49-46 margin. Knight isn't very popular either, with a 41-40 favorable rating, while Hill is at 36-25.
In Florida, Soderberg recently released a poll showing Waltz up 47-46 in a seat Trump carried 57-40. St. Pete did not include any questions on Trump.
In North Carolina, a mid-July poll from SurveyUSA for the conservative think tank Civitas had Budd up 40-35. Trump won 53-44 here.
Finally, a late-June internal poll for Malinowski gave him a similar 47-45 lead. The poll gives Trump an awful 39-55 approval rating with registered voters in a seat he lost 49-48. However, note that Malinowski does better in Monmouth's all-potential-voters model than their historical midterm model, which is what we use in the Digest, so the actual 2018 electorate may dislike Trump a bit less.
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