Since Donald Trump’s election, there’s been a theme repeated so many times it’s become as accepted in political circles as the theory of relativity is in science—that western liberal democracy is on the decline. With Trump in the U.S., various nationalistic movements roiling Europe from east to west, Brexit, Johnson, Bolsonaro, Duterte … on and on and … everywhere you turn there seems to be another story of democracy going down, neo-fascist authoritarianism on the ascent, and borders being shut.
But what if all those stories have it exactly backwards? What if this is not the waning age of democracy, but the last gasp for strongmen attempting to rule by force?
This past week, elections were held for Moscow’s city legislature. As expected, the United Russia Party—Vladimir Putin’s party—took a majority of those seats. In fact, it raked in 62% of votes. But the margin of that victory was a long way from the 89% of seats United Russia took the last time around. As writer Leonid Ragozin notes, this is just one more sign that Vladimir Putin’s “star is fading.” Many people haven’t voted for Putin because they love Putin; they’ve voted for Putin because not professing to love Putin was scary. Way too many of Putin’s opponents, in the press and in politics, ended up having mysterious “accidents.” The result has been a “collective feeling of hopelessness” that has made it hard to launch any real political opposition in Russia. But growing out of that hopelessness is hope, and an increasing willingness to not only stand up to Putin, but stand up successfully.
That hope is also visible next door in Ukraine, where newly elected comedian-turned-president Volodymir Zelensky grew so excited shortly after his inauguration, he leaped into a fountain and splashed around in the company of laughing children. Zelensky ran his campaign on a promise of ending corruption, bringing down the nation’s oligarchs, and embracing the fundamentals of liberal democracy. His election has shaken off decades of gloom that has overshadowed Ukraine since not long after its departure from the Soviet Union, and given people something to rally behind in the face of ongoing Russian occupation in Crimea. He’s a long way from home free, and there are a lot of people with a lot of money that want to see him fail. But so far, those forces have been disappointed.
These are far from the only signs that nationalist, authoritarian regimes are proving less durable than many feared. It’s not exactly time to dance on authoritarianism’s grave … but it may be time to declare that this strongman isn’t all that strong.
In Italy, a newly-elected left leaning government has overturned years of hardline immigration rules imposed by Matteo Salvini. That new government, which disappointed opponents by winning a vote of confidence in the Italian Senate on Tuesday, is rapidly pushing for more openness and allowing rescued migrants into the country after Salvini and his nationalist “League” had forced ships to remain at sea and arrested those who attempted to land. Claims by rightists—that the new left-leaning government would immediately fall apart and allow Salvini to not only return to power, but punish those who opposed him—are starting to look less like predictions and more like pouting. Instead, the new government is moving ahead with looking into how Salvini and his followers worked to make the immigration crisis worse, and how they used that crisis to fuel their movement.
In France, a recent EU vote in which Marine Le Pen’s nationalists topped the party of President Emmanuel Macron may seem like a bad sign. But Le Pen’s party took that election by a single percent, a far better result for Macron than in previous EU elections. Le Pen’s support has actually declined through three straight elections, even as she has lost her major European partner with Salvini being sent to the bench. And while Macron’s popularity went through a slump as he fell under attack by nationalists both at home and abroad, his poll numbers began a big climb over the summer. Just about the only real boost Le Pen has received lately was when she and Donald Trump joined together to complain about Putin being shut out of the G-7.
In the U.K., Boris Johnson has ridden his nationalistic version of the Conservative Party to the top job, only to suffer humiliating losses as he was turned back in his first six votes before Parliament. Johnson is scrambling to force snap elections in the hope that they will not just position him to form a very narrow coalition government, but purge his party of the remaining Tories who place any shred of national interest above party politics. About the only thing that makes it possible that Johnson could win such an election is the long-standing personal unpopularity of Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn and the ego that makes Corbyn unwilling to step aside for anyone else. Admittedly, that’s not a bad foundation for Johnson, but it’s also a long way from a national movement.
Authoritarianism is far from the run in every quarter. Just this week, Poland’s ruling Law and Justice Party made it absolutely clear that it wants nothing to do with democracy. Johnson’s “proroguing” of Parliament in the U.K. may have been the straw that broke his majority’s back, but in Poland, suspending parliament for an indefinite period is now the policy of party leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski. Stopping Kaczynski will be quite a challenge, since he’s ticked off a list of Donald Trump’s wet dreams—silencing the press, capturing the courts, and changing election laws to the point where he almost cannot lose. That includes doing a spit-shine of the Polish constitution to scrub out a lot of pesky “rights.” Still, there’s an election at hand and Kaczynski will have to face at least one more turn at the polls before he gets rid of that holdover from democracy. Right now, it’s an absolute coin toss as to whether Law and Justice will remain in control. Though they may be the only one who gets to see the coin after the toss.
For the last three years, there has been a constant drumbeat that liberal democracy is on the run, authoritarian nationalism is on the rise, and citizens everywhere need to hunker down for an age of strongman rule. But the strong men are not as strong as the populace. They never have been and never will be. In a lot places that were being written off just a few years ago, the wind is blowing in the other direction. Maybe this time it will genuinely sweep them clean.