The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● WY-Sen: In a surprise, GOP Rep. Liz Cheney announced Thursday that she would stay in the House rather than seek Wyoming's open Senate seat.
Campaign Action
Cheney's decision means that former Rep. Cynthia Lummis is still the only notable GOP candidate running for the Senate in this very red state, though that may change now that the congresswoman has taken her name out of contention. The anti-tax Club for Growth is doing what they can to clear the field for Lummis, though: The group endorsed her hours after Cheney made her plans clear and put out a statement declaring it would "spend millions" to aid Lummis.
Cheney, the daughter of former Vice President Dick Cheney, had unsuccessfully sought this seat six years ago when she launched a primary bid against Sen. Mike Enzi. Cheney aborted that campaign in early 2014 after a disastrous few months on the campaign trail, but she resurrected her political career in 2016 by winning the race to replace the retiring Lummis as Wyoming's only House member.
Cheney was immediately mentioned as a potential candidate in May when Enzi announced that he would not seek another term, and the Washington Examiner soon reported that her House colleagues expected her to seek a promotion. Cheney herself increased her fundraising over the next several months, which seemed to be another indication that she was getting ready to run to succeed Enzi.
However, a Senate bid would have been risky for Cheney. Lummis, her predecessor in the House, announced her own bid to succeed Enzi last summer, so Cheney would not have been assured victory in the August GOP primary. And even if Cheney had won, she could have lost influence in the capitol. Cheney is the third-ranking Republican in the House after just two terms in office so she has a good chance to rise to the top of the party's leadership before too long, but she would have been starting from the bottom all over again if she'd gone to the Senate.
Cheney's decision not to run for the Senate is very good news for Lummis, who, as the only credible GOP candidate, is now the frontrunner by default. (The two sweetest words in the English language!) However, Lummis could still face opposition in August from conservative mega donor Foster Friess, who took second place in the 2018 gubernatorial primary. Friess said late last year that he was still considering a Senate bid, and he hinted that he'd take his time deciding. The filing deadline isn't until the end of May, so there's time for other Republicans to enter the race.
4Q Fundraising
● KY-Sen: Mitch McConnell (R-inc): $4.6 million raised, $11.5 million cash-on-hand
● NH-Sen: Jeanne Shaheen (D-inc): $2 million raised, $5.7 million cash-on-hand
● NC-06: Rhonda Foxx (D): $75,000 raised (in two weeks)
● NJ-07: Tom Malinowski (D-inc): $615,000 raised, $2 million cash-on-hand
● TX-02: Sima Ladjevardian (D): $407,000 raised (in three weeks)
Senate
● TN-Sen: On Thursday, the DSCC endorsed Army veteran James Mackler's bid for this open seat. Mackler doesn't face any serious primary opposition in this very red state.
Gubernatorial
● IN-Gov: Campaign finance reports are in for the second half of 2019, and both of GOP Gov. Eric Holcomb's Democratic rivals entered the new year with very few resources.
Former state Health Commissioner Woody Myers raised $126,000 and self-funded another $54,000, but he spent almost all of his money and ended December with less than $2,000 in the bank. Businessman Josh Owens, who we hadn't mentioned before, raised $61,000 and self-funded an additional $23,000, and he had $16,000 on-hand. By contrast, Holcomb took in $1.9 million and had $7.25 million in the bank.
● UT-Gov: Businessman Jeff Burningham is spending $290,000 on his first TV spot ahead of the June GOP primary, and his campaign tells the Deseret News that it will run for the next few weeks. The ad begins with a narrator griping, "Utah politicians just passed a massive food tax increase. It's time for new leadership." The commercial goes on to promote Burningham as a "self-made businessman" instead of a politician.
House
● CA-08: This week, Assemblyman Jay Obernolte announced that he had the support of the House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy and the rest of California's GOP House delegation in his bid to replace retiring Rep. Paul Cook. Cook, who is leaving to run for a seat on the San Bernardino County Board of Supervisors, endorsed Obernolte back in September.
● FL-03: On Thursday, Ocala Mayor Kent Guinn became the latest Republican to enter the August primary to succeed retiring Rep. Ted Yoho in this reliably red seat. Guinn joins a field that includes former Yoho campaign manager Kat Cammack; Clay County Commissioner Gavin Rollins; physician James St. George; and 2018 candidate Judson Sapp.
Guinn made national news last spring when he proclaimed April 26 to be "Confederate Memorial Day." Guinn responded to his many critics by saying he wasn't a Civil War scholar, something he immediately proved when he insisted that the conflict "was about more than just slavery." An actual Civil War scholar tweeted in response, "This is pure cowardice," and, "Ocala, Florida Mayor Kent Guinn signs a proclamation for Confederate Memorial Day, but no effort is made to say what the war was about or what it resolved."
The declaration convinced former Marion County Commissioner Barbara Fitos to challenge Guinn in the September mayoral race, but he won his fifth term 59-41.
● NH-01: Air Force veteran Matt Mayberry, who is a former member of the Dover City Council, announced this week that he would seek the GOP nod to challenge freshman Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas. Mayberry, who is also a Realtor and former state party vice chair, put out a statement saying that if he won the September primary, this would "mark the first time in U.S. History where both candidates for Congress from each political party are openly gay."
● NY-11: GOP City Councilman Joe Borelli spoke for the first time in months about this race this week, and the Staten Island Advance writes that he "still won't say whether he plans to jump into" the contest to take on freshman Democratic Rep. Max Rose.
Borelli was last on the ballot in November when he lost the race for New York City public advocate by a lopsided 78-20 margin to Democratic incumbent Jumaane Williams. Borelli, though, did carry Staten Island, which makes up most of the 11th District, 64-34. (The rest of the seat is in Brooklyn.)
If Borelli does enter the June primary, though, he'll be starting well behind his main intra-party rival. Assemblywoman Nicole Malliotakis entered the race almost a year ago, and she reported having $723,000 in the bank at the end of 2019. Another candidate, former Brooklyn prosecutor Joe Caldarera, announced in early November, but he hasn't released his opening fundraising totals.
P.S. Back in September, former Rep. Mike Grimm said he would decide by the end of that month whether he'd run for his old seat. We're still waiting.
● TX-17: On Wednesday, defense consultant Jeff Oppenheim dropped out of the crowded GOP primary for this open seat.
● WA-10: Democratic state Rep. Beth Doglio said this week that she would decide whether to seek this open seat after the legislative session ends in mid-March.
● DCCC: On Thursday, the DCCC added five new GOP-held seats to its target list:
AK-AL: Don Young
KS-02: Steve Watkins
NC-08: Richard Hudson
NJ-02: Jeff Van Drew
TX-02: Dan Crenshaw
The committee also added California’s 25th District, which it will be defending in a special election later this year.
Grab Bag
● Radio: Daily Kos political director David Nir spoke with Joe Sudbay on the Michelangelo Signorile Show on Wednesday about the upcoming special election for the Texas House in HD-28, and why even if Democrats beat Donald Trump, they also need to take back the Senate if they want to pass anything. Click here to listen to the full segment.
● Where Are They Now?: Former Florida Rep. Allen West decided over the summer to run for chairman of the Texas GOP against incumbent James Dickey, and the far-right darling is turning what would ordinarily be a low-profile contest into a very expensive affair.
The Texas Tribune's Patrick Svitek reports that West has outraised Dickey $490,000 to $18,000, with just over half of West's haul coming from conservative mega donor Richard Uihlein. West, who held a huge $283,000 to $6,000 cash-on-hand edge, is even airing cable TV ads to promote his candidacy. The party chair election will take place in mid-May at the state GOP convention.