Ahh, Pennsylvania, the keystone state. And, also, this year’s tipping-point state. What’s that mean? It means that with Michigan and Wisconsin looking solid for Joe Biden, the next closest state is Pennsylvania, and the one that would deliver the winning Electoral College votes to Team Democracy.
Donate now to turn the Pennsylvania House blue!
Civiqs took one last look at the state before next Tuesday's election. Civiqs surveyed 1,145 likely voters October 23-26. The MoE is 3%. And the result?
PRESIDENT |
10/26 |
10/21 |
6/11 |
6/2 |
4/8 |
JOE BIDEN (D) |
52 |
52 |
49 |
49 |
47 |
DONALD TRUMP (R-INC) |
45 |
46 |
46 |
46 |
47 |
Think of the tens of millions of dollars spent advertising in Pennsylvania, the hundreds of thousands of doors knocked, the millions of mail pieces, the countless campaign trips. The hundreds of thousands of COVID-19 deaths. The conventions. The relentless never-ending Trump crazy. And in the end?
Trump is down two measly points. But, critically, undecideds have moved steadily in Biden’s direction. And while a seven-point lead isn’t one to rest on, not with so much on the line, it’s clear that Trump is on the ropes.
(An aside, Democrats are leading in both the auditor and attorney general races, looking like a clean sweep for the good guys.)
Of those who have already voted, Biden is up by an eye-popping 87-11 margin. Seems nuts, but looking at the distribution of returned ballots, we’re certainly seeing that kind of margin:
|
Returned ballots |
% |
Democrats |
1,193,887 |
69.7 |
Republicans |
355,317 |
20.8 |
Minor |
10,756 |
0.6 |
No Party Affiliation |
152,057 |
8.9 |
Total |
1,712,017 |
100 |
In the Civiqs poll, of the remaining voters, Trump leads them 62-35%. The pressure is on the GOP’s turnout machine to make sure they vote, given how heavily Trump has worked to suppress them.
Of course, this has been the GOP’s game plan—vote on E-day, then try to stop the count of those early ballots. Trump was even at it yesterday.
We all know the Trump campaign will file suit election night to try and stop the count of any ballots not accounted for that evening. We know Republicans have prevented election authorities from beginning the count early, like they do in places like Arizona.
So there’s a real chance that Pennsylvania, while it’s looking like the tipping-point state, may not actually put Biden over the top. That’s why states like Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina are important. Early night Biden victories in those states would deflate any efforts to try and legally suppress the vote counting in Pennsylvania. It would be pointless to create chaos in Pennsylvania if Biden is already nearing 300 electoral votes banked.
But we can’t count on that. And we can’t surrender because of GOP efforts to undemocratically stop the vote. The bigger the Democratic margin of victory in the state, the less likely it'll be that Trump leads on election night. So work your ass off for every single vote.
Daily Kos has collected several ways you can help get the vote out. If you haven’t already been working GOTV (and I know many of you have), this is your chance to help us close strong (Pennsylvania is on the list of options!).
P.S. Sen. Pat Toomey’s approval ratings are a laughably godawful 26-52. No wonder he’s retiring lol.