Tuesday is primary night in New Jersey, which is holding nominating contests for its federal and statewide offices. The primary was originally set for early June, but was delayed a month because of the coronavirus pandemic.
Below you'll find our guide to the most important races in the Garden State. When it’s available, we'll tell you about any polling that exists for each race, but if we don't mention any numbers, it means no recent surveys have been made public.
Importantly, we may not know all the winners for days, or even longer. Because of the pandemic, more voters are casting ballots by mail than ever before, so a sizable number of votes may not be tallied until after election night.
Polls close at 8 PM ET and our live coverage will begin then at Daily Kos Elections. You can also follow us on Twitter for blow-by-blow updates. And you’ll want to bookmark our primary calendar, which includes the dates of the presidential and down-ballot primaries in all 50 states—many of which have been changed—as well as our separate calendar tracking key contests further down the ballot taking place nationwide this year.
NJ-02 (R & D) (51-46 Trump, 54-45 Obama): Freshman Rep. Jeff Van Drew defected to the Republican Party in December after a long career in state politics amassing a record as a conservative Democrat, quickly earning the support of both Donald Trump and the local GOP establishment—and, of course, the ire of Democrats everywhere.
Van Drew’s only intraparty opponent is businessman Bob Patterson, who has raised little money and attracted little outside support. Still, the incumbent and his allies appear to be taking Van Drew’s first GOP primary seriously. The incumbent outspent Patterson $410,000 to $82,000 from April 1 to June 17, which is the time the FEC defines as the preprimary period, while the pro-Trump Committee to Defend the President has spent another $258,000 to support Van Drew.
Five Democrats are vying to wrest this coastal South Jersey seat back from the turncoat Van Drew, who flipped it from the GOP in 2018. The two most prominent contenders for the nomination are mental health advocate Amy Kennedy and political science professor Brigid Callahan Harrison.
Kennedy, who is a member of the famed political dynasty (her husband is former Rhode Island Rep. Patrick Kennedy), has the backing of Gov. Phil Murphy, and she outspent Callahan Harrison by a wide $750,000 to $275,000 margin during the preprimary period. Will Cunningham, who took 16% against Van Drew in the 2018 Democratic primary, spent $50,000 during this time, while the other two candidates didn’t report spending anything.
While Callahan Harrison has been decisively outspent, she has some influential supporters, including Sens. Robert Menendez and Cory Booker. Powerful South Jersey political boss George Norcross is also in her corner, and his allied PAC, General Majority PAC, has spent $275,000 on ads promoting Callahan Harrison.
Both Callahan Harrison and Kennedy have earned the backing of important county-level Democratic party organizations in the district, which gives them a favorable place on the ballot in each of those counties. Callahan Harrison has the line in five of the district’s eight counties, which together cast 46% of the vote in the 2018 primary. However, Kennedy has the party endorsement in Atlantic County, which made up 41% of the total vote two years ago.
NJ-03 (R) (51-45 Trump, 52-47 Obama): Democrat Andy Kim narrowly won his first term after a very expensive 2018 race for this South Jersey seat, and two Republicans are seeking to take on the new incumbent. Wealthy businessman David Richter, who has self-funded most of his campaign, outspent former Burlington County Freeholder Kate Gibbs by a wide $280,000 to $94,000 margin during the preprimary period, but two super PACs have spent a combined $325,000 on ads promoting Gibbs and hitting Richter.
The contest between Gibbs and Richter has been quite nasty. Richter has gone after Gibbs' past legal troubles, including her 2006 arrest for shoplifting when she was 20 (Gibbs ultimately pleaded guilty to a lesser charge). Gibbs and her allies, meanwhile, have run spots accusing Richter of being a “pro-Biden, pro-China elitist.”
Richter has the party line in conservative Ocean County, which makes up just 43% of the population of this seat but was home to 55% of its Trump voters in 2016. Gibbs, in contrast, has support of the party in her home county, which makes up the balance of this seat.
NJ-05 (D & R) (49-48 Trump, 51-48 Romney): Rep. Josh Gottheimer, who is one of the more prominent moderates in the Democratic caucus, faces a primary challenge from the left in the form of Glen Rock Councilwoman Arati Kreibich.
Gottheimer outspent Kreibich $265,000 to $175,000 during the preprimary period, and both sides have released polls showing the incumbent far ahead. A Kreibich survey from Data for Progress found Gottheimer winning 64-17 in late May, while a TargetSmart poll for Gottheimer had him up 66-23 a month later. (Kreibich's poll argued her standing would improve once voters learned more about her.)
Four Republicans are competing to take on the winner in this North Jersey seat. The most familiar names are 2018 nominee John McCann, who struggled to raise money last time and lost 56-42, and former Wall Street banker Frank Pallotta. Pallotta outspent McCann by an overwhelming $270,000 to $3,000 margin during the preprimary period, but McCann has the endorsement of the local GOP in populous Bergen County.
NJ-08 (D) (76-21 Clinton, 78-21 Obama): Veteran Rep. Albio Sires faces a challenge from the left from attorney Hector Oseguera in this seat in the Jersey City area. Oseguera has struggled to raise money and attract outside support, but there are indications that Sires and his allies are taking this contest seriously.
Sires notably used more than half of his campaign war chest during the preprimary period and ended up outspending Oseguera $130,000 to $26,000. The powerful Hudson County Democrats also attracted some attention during the final weeks of the campaign when they released opposition research on Oseguera, another sign that he could be a threat to the incumbent.
Tuesday will be an exciting night, so we hope you’ll join us for our liveblog at Daily Kos Elections!