The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● DE State Senate, DE State House: Delaware progressives defeated four moderate state legislators, including state Senate President Pro Tempore David McBride, in Tuesday's Democratic primaries. Democrats control both chambers of the legislature, and there's little question that Team Blue will maintain its majorities this fall.
We'll start with McBride, who lost to social worker Marie Pinkney by a 52-48 margin in SD-13, a seat McBride had held since 1980. McBride was the most powerful member of the Delaware Senate, but he'd cultivated a conservative record during his long tenure. In 1989, for instance, McBride unsuccessfully pushed for the state to resume using the whipping post to punish drug offenders.
Pinkney also criticized McBride for "locking up" gun safety measures last year; the incumbent argued at the time that he wouldn't bring that legislation to the floor of the Senate because there was "almost nonexistent" support for them from other Democrats. This district backed Hillary Clinton 71-25, so there's little question Pinkney will prevail in the fall.
Campaign Action
Three moderate state representatives also lost their primaries. Banker Larry Lambert, who emphasized police reform, unseated incumbent Raymond Seigfried 59-41 in HD-07, a 62-33 Clinton district; two years ago, Lambert fell 86 votes short against Seigfried in what was a crowded open seat contest.
In HD-26, another reliably blue seat, Madinah Wilson-Anton holds a 43-41 edge over her former boss, longtime incumbent John Viola; the AP has not yet called the contest, but Delaware Online says that Wilson-Anton has prevailed. Wilson-Anton's victory in November would make her the first Muslim to serve in the legislature.
Finally, human resources manager Eric Morrison toppled social conservative state Rep. Earl Jaques 61-39 in HD-27. This seat went for Clinton 57-38, and Morrison would be the first gay man elected to the legislature. Last year, Jaques earned plenty of negative attention when he criticized Morrison for performing at a drag show campaign fundraiser, saying, "That's so far off-base for our district, it's unbelievable." Jaques, who had opposed legalizing same-sex marriage in 2013 and abstained from a bill outlawing conversion therapy, later apologized for his comments.
The First State is also set to make history by electing the first transgender member of any state Senate this fall. Sarah McBride (no relation to David McBride), whose 2016 speech at the Democratic National Committee made her the first trans person to address a major national party convention, easily won her primary to succeed state Sen. Harris McDowell III, a fellow Democrat who is retiring after 44 years in office. SD-01 went for Clinton 68-27.
Senate
● AL-Sen: Democratic Sen. Doug Jones is once again betting that Tommy Tuberville's lockstep support for Donald Trump will be a liability for the Republican even in one of the reddest states in the nation, and he's out with a new commercial hitting Tuberville for saying nothing after Trump insulted dead American soldiers.
Jones tells the audience, "Calling these patriots suckers and losers is insulting. As Alabama's senator, supporting our veterans and building a strong military has been my priority." Jones concludes, "And unlike Tommy Tuberville, I'll stand up to anyone for our heroes."
● GA-Sen-B: Businessman Matt Lieberman has released a poll from HarrisX to argue that, while he's in fourth place in the all-party primary, he still can overtake pastor Raphael Warnock as the main Democratic candidate. The survey finds appointed Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler in the lead with 26%, while Republican Rep. Doug Collins leads Warnock 21-16 for the second spot in an all-but-certain runoff. Lieberman takes 13%, while another Democrat, former U.S. Attorney Ed Tarver, is at 6%.
The sample also found Joe Biden ahead 52-46, which is his largest lead in any publicly released poll this year. However, all the horserace numbers came after a multitude of issue questions, including about policing, trade policy, and how often respondents washed their hands after coming in from outside. We always encourage pollsters to ask issue questions after the horserace to avoid "priming" voters to lean one way or the other.
Meanwhile, Loeffler's allies at Georgia United Victory, a super PAC run by allies of Gov. Brain Kemp, are up with another commercial against Collins. The ad once again attacks Collins' career as a defense attorney, with the narrator labeling him "a career politician helping career criminals."
● ME-Sen: Republicans began running commercials back in June arguing that Democratic state House Speaker Sara Gideon was too slow to take action against a state representative and teacher named Dillon Bates who had been accused of having improper relationships with his students, and the NRSC is continuing to run commercials over this story.
As we previously wrote, The Bollard reported in August of 2018 that Bates had "engaged in at least three romantic and/or sexual relationships with high school girls over the past half decade." That same day, Gideon responded by calling for Bates, who earlier in the year had said he would not seek re-election, to resign immediately.
A spokeswoman for Gideon acknowledged that the speaker had known about the allegations for "several months," but that she had not found any proof to back them up at the time. Gideon's office added, "At that point, we told Rep. Bates that if any evidence or new information was presented that indicated there could be truth to what was then a rumor, that we would ask him to resign immediately."
Police in Westbrook, where Bates worked as a teacher, told WMTW after The Bollard article was published that they could not verify the allegations and were not actively investigating him. Bates maintained his innocence but resigned shortly afterwards.
● MN-Sen: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce has launched an issue ad criticizing Democratic Sen. Tina Smith for not supporting a Republican-backed bill called the "Paycheck Protection Small Business Forgiveness Act," and the National Journal's Dylan Wells reports that the buy is for $500,000.
● Polls:
- AZ-Sen: OH Predictive Insights (R): Mark Kelly (D): 52, Martha McSally (R-inc): 42 (52-42 Biden) (August: 48-43 Kelly)
- GA-Sen-A: HarrisX for Matt Lieberman (D): David Perdue (R-inc): 47, Jon Ossoff (D): 40 (52-46 Biden)
- KY-Sen: Quinnipiac: Mitch McConnell (R-inc): 53, Amy McGrath (D): 41 (58-38 Trump) (Aug.: 49-44 McConnell)
- ME-Sen: Quinnipiac: Sara Gideon (D): 54, Susan Collins (R-inc): 42 (59-38 Biden) (Aug.: 47-43 Gideon)
- SC-Sen: Quinnipiac: Lindsey Graham (R-inc): 48, Jaime Harrison (D): 48 (51-45 Trump) (Aug.: 44-44 tie)
We’ll be discussing these contests below. Note that our Daily Kos Elections polling averages do not yet include any of these surveys.
AZ-Sen: OH Predictive Insights, which does not have a client, has usually given Democrat Mark Kelly some of his better numbers. Some recent surveys have given Kelly only a small lead, but our polling average has Kelly with a 50-42 edge.
GA-Sen-A: This poll was conducted for Democrat Matt Lieberman, who is running in the Nov. 3 all-party primary for Georgia's other U.S. Senate seat. We discuss that survey, as well as some potential issues with it, in our GA-Sen-B item.
KY-Sen: This is the first poll we've seen out of Kentucky since Quinnipiac's last poll a month ago.
ME-Sen: Quinnipiac's survey is the best result that Democrat Sara Gideon has posted in any publicly released poll. These numbers, though, come a week after a survey commissioned by the AARP gave Republican Sen. Susan Collins her best result since late June, though the incumbent still trailed Gideon 44-43. Our average puts Gideon ahead 46-42.
SC-Sen: We haven't seen any other surveys taken in the month between the two Quinnipiac polls. Earlier polls also found a tight race, though, and our average puts Graham up just 45-44.
Gubernatorial
● MO-Gov: Political commercials focused on healthcare usually feature a patient, doctor, or nurse making the case for a candidate, but Republican Gov. Mike Parson goes in a different direction in his new spot. His ad stars a healthcare executive named Christy Shawan, who donated $2,600 to Parson's re-election bid last year.
Shawan praises the incumbent's response to the pandemic, declaring, "Gov. Parson was like our quarterback: He wanted to know what we were hearing, what we were seeing, and what we needed." The spot comes shortly after national Democrats launched a commercial saying that Parson "was slow to act as COVID-19 ravaged Missouri."
● NC-Gov: Most polls continue to find Republican Dan Forest well behind Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper, but the RGA is hoping to change that with its new TV spots out of what CBS reported earlier this month was a $3 million reservation. The RGA began its ad campaign earlier this month.
One commercial faults Cooper's handling of unemployment benefits during the pandemic: Last month, Cooper proposed increasing the amount of time that people can receive unemployment benefits, an idea the GOP-led legislature quickly shot down. The other ad goes after Cooper for supporting marches against police brutality, saying, "And when he told you to stay inside and closed your business, he marched with protestors."
Cooper, meanwhile, uses a new spot to call for Medicaid expansion. The governor tells the audience, "Thirty-nine states have done it, including Indiana when Mike Pence was governor. But the legislature and Dan Forest keep saying no."
House
● CA-21: Both parties appear to have settled on their main messages for this campaign. Freshman Democratic Rep. TJ Cox is running another commercial calling former Republican David Valadao "a yes man" for Donald Trump, who lost this Central Valley seat 55-40 four years ago.
The NRCC, meanwhile, is out with an ad declaring that Cox "has seen a lot of tax liens," a theme that it's already used in its spots. In January, the IRS filed liens seeking $145,000 in unpaid taxes from Cox and his wife from 2016 and 2017, while the state said in March that the couple owed another $30,000. Cox's campaign said earlier this year that the congressman was "in the process of paying his bill in full," and added, "When a former business partner amended their 2016 federal filing in 2019, that altered Rep. Cox's tax responsibilities, both federal and state."
● FL-13: In her first general election ad, Republican Anna Paulina Luna tells the audience, "Unlike the crooks in Congress, I'm not going to lie to your face and tell you what you want to hear." Luna, who ran in last month's primary as an ardent Trump ally, continues by talking about how she "survived poverty, shootings and gangs" and joined the Air Force, experiences that made her "fiercely independent." The commercial doesn't mention Democratic Rep. Charlie Crist.
● FL-26: Republican Carlos Giménez's first general election commercial highlights his work as Miami's fire chief and as Miami-Dade County mayor, including during the ongoing pandemic. The narrator concludes that "Carlos Giménez knows politicians fighting in Congress won't get results. But he will."
● GA-06: The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported earlier this month that Everytown for Gun Safety announced it would launch a $1.2 million TV buy supporting freshman Democratic Rep. Lucy McBath, and its opening spots are available now.
One commercial features students faulting Republican Karen Handel, who is trying to regain her seat after losing to McBath last cycle, for deciding that "$100,000 from the gun lobby was more important than our safety." The other ad goes after Handel's fervent support for Donald Trump, and it twice makes use of a clip of the Republican standing next to a cardboard cutout of Trump and bragging, "I have one of the strongest Trump support ratings."
● MO-02: Democrat Jill Schupp is running a commercial attacking Republican Rep. Ann Wagner's healthcare record, a move that comes as Wagner has been falsely arguing that Joe Biden rejects Schupp's healthcare plan.
Schupp's narrator opens, "Ann Wagner's efforts during COVID were called a 'twisted attack on American health care.' She voted five times to gut protections for pre-existing conditions." Schupp later appears and tells the audience, "With this pandemic, quality, affordable healthcare has never been more important." The candidate continues, "In Congress, I'll do what Ann Wagner won't: protect the Affordable Care Act, lower the cost of prescription drugs, and make sure no one with a preexisting condition is ever denied coverage."
● TX-10: Republican Rep. Michael McCaul's commercial adopts the strategy that his party has been trying across the country and caricatures his opponent, Democrat Mike Siegel, as "a threat to your family." Waller County Constable Joe Trimm tells the audience that Siegel "wants to abolish the police and abolish prisons, allowing violent felons to roam our street."
The on-screen text the commercial relies on for "evidence" of this claim, though, is the "Our Work" page on the National Lawyers Guild site, a progressive group that the Texas Tribune's Patrick Svitek says Siegel is associated with. The organization calls for the "redirection of prison and policing budgets into social and human services as well as re-entry support," which is the type of reform that Republicans are more than happy to portray as a threat to public safety.
● VA-07: The United Association of Union Plumbers and Pipefitters has launched a $388,000 ad buy against Republican Nick Freitas. The narrator argues that Freitas "voted to let businesses discriminate and fire expecting mothers for no other reason than their pregnancy."
● Polls:
- CA-49: SurveyUSA for the San Diego Union-Tribune: Mike Levin (D-inc): 49, Bryan Maryott (R): 37 (58-37 Biden)
- MI-03: Global Strategy Group (D) for House Majority PAC: Hillary Scholten (D): 41, Peter Meijer (R): 41 (49-41 Biden)
- UT-04: Lighthouse Research for Utah Debate Commission: Ben McAdams (D-inc): 47, Burgess Owens (R): 37
CA-49: This is the first poll we've seen from a race that has attracted almost no outside attention so far, and SurveyUSA's numbers are unlikely to change that.
MI-03: This is also the first survey that's been made public since June, when an ALG Research internal from Democrat Hillary Scholten showed her edging out Republican Peter Meijer 40-39. No major outside groups have booked air time here so far, though this poll shows that House Majority PAC is at least keeping an eye on this race.
A Biden win in the 3rd District, much less a decisive victory, would be a remarkable development in this ancestrally Republican seat in the Grand Rapids area. Donald Trump won 52-42 here, and last cycle, Republican Bill Schuette managed to carry the district 48.6-48.2 even as he was losing the gubernatorial race statewide by a 53-44 margin.
UT-04: This is the first survey we've seen from Lighthouse Research. The poll was sponsored by the Utah Debate Commission in order to determine which candidates would be invited to its debate: The group also released surveys of the race for governor and from the other three House seats, though unsurprisingly, the Republican candidates posted huge leads in all of them.
We've only seen one other poll of the 4th District from the last month. Earlier this week, an RMG Research survey for the Deseret News and University of Utah also found freshman Democratic Rep. Ben McAdams ahead, though by a considerably smaller 45-41 margin.
Primary Results Recaps
● DE-Sen: While the final primary night of 2020 brought some big developments in the legislature, there was little action in the U.S. Senate contest. Democratic incumbent Chris Coons turned back a challenge from the left from businesswoman Jessica Scarane 73-27. Coons should have no trouble in the fall against Lauren Witzke, who is the latest follower of the pro-Trump QAnon conspiracy theory to win a Republican primary, in a contest Daily Kos Elections rates as Safe Democratic.
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