It’s admittedly hard to imagine right now, but there actually is a future in this country that will extend beyond the events of Jan. 6 and whatever violence transpires over the next 10 days or so. Whether the Republican Party realizes it or not, its fate is being written as we speak, and to a great extent depends on which path the party chooses to take over the next few weeks.
As much as they’d prefer to believe their own fevered fairy tale, the deluded right-wing terrorists who committed (and continue to commit) these acts of wanton violence constitute a tiny fraction of the American population, even though the media coverage and the character of the violence they perpetrated has understandably magnified their numbers. Make no mistake, the threat that they pose is real and lethal, but their numbers are relatively small, and contrary to their exuberant claims, they do not, in reality, represent a “silent majority” of the American population, either in their numbers or their character.
In short, these are not average Americans.
The insurrectionist mob that showed up at the president's behest and stormed the U.S. Capitol was overwhelmingly made up of longtime Trump supporters, including Republican Party officials, GOP political donors, far-right militants, white supremacists, off-duty police, members of the military and adherents of the QAnon myth that the government is secretly controlled by a cabal of Satan-worshiping pedophile cannibals. Records show that some were heavily armed and included convicted criminals, such as a Florida man recently released from prison for attempted murder.
The size of the terrorist crowd who rioted on Jan. 6 has proven difficult to estimate. Organizers projected a crowd between 5,000-30,000 people, and the numbers appear to have matched the higher end of their expectations, but that still is not clear. By contrast, the number of pro gun-control marchers that demonstrated in Washington, D.C., after the 2018 murders at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Florida, was estimated at 800,000. The participants at the 2017 Women’s March numbered approximately 500,000, according to D.C. officials, although organizers estimated a significantly higher figure, including not just D.C. attendees, but the hundreds of thousands who demonstrated across the country.
So even assuming Trump’s insurrection drew 30,000 people, that is less than 5% of the number of Americans who cared enough about the regulation of automatic, semi-automatic and assault weapons to march in Washington in 2018.
And for an even more telling comparison, consider that the number of Black Lives Matter protesters last year across the U.S. numbered anywhere from 15 to 26 million Americans.
The other important thing to remember may be obvious, but is also worth noting: it’s fairly certain no one changed their political alignment from Democratic to Republican after the Women’s or Climate marches. And those who may have looked down on the Black Lives Matter movement were, for the most part, fixed in their political opinions as well.
But this latest spectacle from the high-octane deplorables (perhaps a better descriptor would be “despicables?”) who identify with the Republican Party is not gaining any sympathy from the electorate. Even though the insurrection (thus far) was initially viewed by Americans through a partisan lens, as the character of the violence has become more clear, Americans have already sharply reassessed their opinions.
In fact, the little data available thus far (and the outrage, as we know, is ongoing) suggests that these terroristic riots and violent attacks may be permanently alienating many Americans from any further association with the GOP, including some of those who likely voted Republican in the last election.
The impact is only a trickle thus far, but it’s worth noting.
In Florida:
The numbers are small, but notable. In Miami-Dade, the state’s most populous county, more than seven times as many Republicans as Democrats changed their party registrations in the aftermath of the violence in Washington, D.C. The ratio of Republican to Democratic switches was almost as high in Palm Beach County, the third most populous.
In Pennsylvania:
In Cumberland County, Pennsylvania, 192 people have changed their party registration since the Jan. 6 riot. Only 13 switched to the GOP — the other 179 changed to Democrat, independent or a third party, according to Bethany Salzarulo, the director of the bureau of elections.
In Iowa:
In Linn County, Iowa, home to Cedar Rapids, more than four dozen voters dropped their Republican Party affiliations in the 48 hours after the Capitol attack. They mostly switched to no party, elections commissioner Joel Miller said, though a small number took the highly unusual step of cancelling their registrations altogether.
These are small numbers, but that is as expected. It’s not as if affirmatively changing their voter registration is at the top of everyone’s mind right now, with everyone anxiously waiting for the Great Orange Shoe to drop before Trump drags the republic any further into the abyss.
The other important thing to keep in mind, while we wait for a trend to develop here, is the impact that the events of Jan. 6 will certainly have on young people, particularly young people of color who might not already be leaning toward exercising their right to vote but may find the shocking events of Jan. 6 more than a sufficient motivator. After all, the white supremacist and neo-Nazi ideology underpinning these riots is now impossible to discount by anyone with a brain and a pair of eyes.
As a parent of school-age children, I can tell you that these events are being discussed this week in public schools nationwide with a view toward easing the trauma on what young people have just been forced to witness, thanks to Donald Trump and his cast of enablers. As powerfully as the 9/11 attacks stuck with a prior generation, the residual impact of these events on young peoples’ attitudes will be profound and long-term, particularly occurring as they have in the context of the enormously stressful backdrop of the COVID-19 pandemic.
As painful as this experience is, to say it does not bode well for the future of the Republican party would be an understatement.