• NY-17: Former Democratic Rep. Mondaire Jones is in danger of losing Tuesday's Working Families Party primary to a little-known candidate named Anthony Frascone, whom both Jones and the WFP leadership have accused of running to help Republican Rep. Mike Lawler win reelection in New York's competitive 17th District.
With 337 votes tabulated as of Wednesday afternoon, Frascone leads Jones by a 55-45 margin, a difference of 31 votes. However, the Associated Press has not yet called the race, and its estimates of the total expected vote have shifted dramatically—but even coming up with an estimate for a contest like this has to be all but impossible.
Indeed, according to the state's Board of Elections, the WFP has hosted exactly one primary in a House race since its founding in 1998. That lone election took place in 2006 in the 25th District, which at the time was based in the Syracuse area, and saw future Democratic Rep. Dan Maffei defeat his opponent 50 votes to 16.
The WFP's nomination can matter quite a bit, though, because of the Empire State's unusual election laws. New York, according to Ballotpedia, is one of just five states that allow candidates to claim multiple party nominations, a practice known as fusion voting. (The others are Connecticut, Mississippi, Oregon, and Vermont.)
In New York, a candidate appears on the general election ballot in the column of every party that's nominated them, or, in local parlance, gives them their ballot line. As a result, contenders are often listed multiple times. (You can see an example here.) The candidates' votes under each ballot line are "fused" together to determine the winner, and support from voters who favor smaller parties can make all the difference.
Just such a scenario played out in this very district two years ago. Then-Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney took 47% of the vote under the Democratic line, while only 44% marked their ballot for Lawler as the Republican nominee. However, another 6% backed Lawler on the Conservative Party line, while just 3% cast ballots for Maloney as the WFP's candidate.
With all lines totes up, Lawler narrowly prevailed by a 50.3-49.7 margin in a constituency that had favored Joe Biden 54-44 two years earlier. The final outcome represented a stunning loss for Maloney, who at the time was chair of the official campaign arm of House Democrats.
The labor-backed WFP almost always supports the Democratic nominee in general elections, and Jones appeared poised to claim its ballot line until a few weeks ago. However, that changed after he endorsed Westchester County Executive George Latimer's successful primary challenge against Democratic Rep. Jamaal Bowman in the neighboring 16th District.
The leadership of the state WFP, which was one of Bowman's most ardent allies, responded by announcing that the party would no longer aid Jones, though he still remained their endorsed candidate. That acrimony, though, provided an opening for Frascone, who appears poised to win the primary and officially become the WFP's nominee this fall.
But despite their falling out, neither Jones nor the WFP want to see this happen. Prior to the election, both highlighted Frascone's history of voting in GOP primaries, with the WFP charging that his bid was an "attempt by GOP operatives to hijack our ballot line." Frascone, whom Politico said did not appear to have so much as a campaign website, did not respond to reporters' inquiries.
And if Frascone does indeed emerge with the WFP nod, his presence on the ballot could cost Jones some much-needed support from progressive voters and make it easier for Lawler to win. The incumbent, for his part, once again has the Conservative Party, which almost always supports Republicans, in his corner.
P.S. While it's rare for the Conservatives or the WFP to oppose their erstwhile allies in a competitive general election, it's not unheard of. Most notably, Conservatives were infuriated when GOP leaders nominated moderate Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava for a 2009 special election for the 23rd District in rural upstate New York, prompting them to field right-winger Doug Hoffman.
What followed was a strange three-way general election between Scozzafava, Hoffman, and Bill Owens, who had the Democratic and WFP lines. Things became even more chaotic during the final weekend when Scozzafava suspended her campaign and endorsed Owens. Owens ended up outpacing Hoffman 48-46, with Scozzafava securing the remaining 6% on the Republican line.