Russian forces conducted a series of missile strikes against Ukraine on the night of June 29 and the morning of June 30.
Ukrainian officials stated that Russian forces conducted an unspecified missile strike on Vilyansk, Zaporizhia Oblast on the night of June 29.[77] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed on June 29 that Russian forces conducted an Iskander-M ballistic missile strike against the unloading site of a train with military equipment near Ukrainka, Zaporizhia Oblast.[78] Ukraine's Southern Operational Command stated that Russian forces struck near Odesa City with a likely Iskander-M ballistic missile on the morning of June 30.[79] Zelensky stated on June 30 that Russian forces have launched over 800 glide bombs against Ukraine in the past week.[80]
Ukrainian forces reportedly struck the Novolipetsk Metallurgical Plant (NLMK) in Lipetsk Oblast on June 30. Russian media outlet Baza reported on June 30 that seven Ukrainian drones and their debris struck the plant and damaged an oxygen separation unit and caused a fire in a garage on the plant's territory on the morning of June 30.[21] Lipetsk Oblast Governor Igor Artamonov stated that Russian air defenses downed nine drones over Lipetsk's industrial zone and that debris from one drone struck the roof of a residential building.[22] NLMK representatives claimed that Ukrainian drones targeted the plant but downplayed the impact of the strike, calling the strike "meaningless."[23] The June 30 strike appears to be the fifth strike against NLMK following strikes against the plant on June 17 and in February, April, and May 2024.[24] NLMK claims to be Russia's largest producer of steel and high value-added steel products.[25]
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GPS jamming https://t.co/zItl5PQiLx
Military and civilian flights continue to experience GPS interference over Europe and the Middle East, highlighting the role of long-term GPS jamming in ongoing and future conflicts. The Telegraph, citing flight tracker data, reported on June 30 that hundreds of the United Kingdom (UK) Royal Air Force's (RAF) 1,467 total transport and surveillance flights between January and April 2024 experienced GPS interference.[33] The Telegraph reported that roughly 28 percent (142 of 504) of RAF transport and surveillance flights over Eastern Europe, 16 percent of flights over northwestern Europe, and 45 percent of flights over the Middle East experienced GPS jamming in the first four months of 2024. UK Defense Secretary Grant Shapps and an unnamed defense source attributed the GPS jamming to Russian actors, but The Telegraph noted that some of the GPS jamming signals in the Middle East may be originating in Israel in addition to Russian military installations in Syria. ISW has observed high levels of GPS jamming over Poland and the Baltic region since late 2023, which some analysts and experts have attributed to Russian electronic warfare (EW) activity near Kaliningrad and St. Petersburg.[34]
The Resilient Navigation and Timing Foundation (RNTF), a nonprofit advocating for improved GPS security, responded on June 19 to recent reports of the first confirmed instance of GPS jamming on a commercial trans-Atlantic flight route and stated that an aircraft's GPS receiver cannot always recover on its own after experiencing jamming and may operate in "degraded mode" until a pilot or technician fixes the receiver.[35] RNTF assessed that an aircraft flying the commercial trans-Atlantic route during the reported jamming instance may have previously flown from the Baltic Region or Middle East where jamming is more prevalent and been experiencing ongoing issues with its GPS receiver due to previous exposure. ISW has observed no reports that Russian actors are attempting to jam GPS over western Europe or the Atlantic Ocean. GPS-guided systems will likely become increasingly unreliable over war zones as long-range jamming against prominent GPS-guided weapons and systems becomes more normal.
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There is the suggestion that the stepped-up operations in the Baltic reflect Finland’s joining Nato, soon to be followed by Sweden. Likewise, Black Sea jamming is not least a way to hinder Ukrainian air and naval operations, as well as mask the movements of Russian ships.
However, this is more likely to be part of a generalised campaign to put pressure on Europe. Jamming some GPS signals may sound trivial, and in a way it is. After all, it is largely more of an inconvenience than anything else. Although there are cases of flights being grounded or redirected, even civilian aircraft have alternative systems in case they lose GPS, and in any case these signals are not used in crucial take-offs and landings.
Yet the essence of Russian ‘political warfare’ operations is not to rely on some grand coup de mains, however welcome they may be. They are much more reliant on an accumulation of small-scale irritants and costs in the hope that they eventually form a critical mass able of influencing politics. As a Russian scholar working in this field put it, ‘some day, when their flight has been delayed again, when their gas bill goes up again, when they can’t see a doctor because money that could have been spent on healthcare went to Ukraine instead, then European voters may start questioning’ the official line.
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- Russian President Vladimir Putin's theory of victory that Russia will be able to make creeping advances in Ukraine indefinitely will incentivize Putin to protract the war and harden Putin's commitment to destroying Ukrainian statehood. The West must hasten to provide Ukraine the support it needs to conduct counteroffensive operations to invalidate Putin's theory of victory and avoid protracting the war more than necessary to secure a peace acceptable to Ukraine and its partners.
- Putin retains his objective of entirely destroying Ukrainian statehood and identity, and all his objectives for territorial conquest in Ukraine are a means to this end.
- The Russian military command appears to be separating some limited elements of airborne (VDV) units and formations into smaller components across different sectors of the front, and the Russian military command may still view VDV units as relatively elite, at least compared with other Russian units and formations.
- Ukrainian forces reportedly struck the Novolipetsk Metallurgical Plant (NLMK) in Lipetsk Oblast on June 30.
- Dagestan Republic Head Sergei Melikov publicly sided with Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov in a recent debate between Kadyrov and Russian Investigative Commitee Head Alexander Bastrykin about responses to religious extremism in Russia amid growing ethnic and religious tension in Russia.
- Military and civilian flights continue to experience GPS interference over Europe and the Middle East, highlighting the role of long-term GPS jamming in ongoing and future conflicts.
- Ukrainian forces recently regained lost positions near Kreminna, and Russian forces recently advanced near Lyptsi, Vovchansk, Kupyansk, and Avdiivka.
- A Russian milblogger claimed on June 29 that Russian military commanders sent about 50 wounded soldiers of the 26th Tank Regiment (47th Tank Division, 1st Guards Tank Army, Moscow Military District [MMD]), who are on leave awaiting medical treatments, to the front against doctors' instructions.
Russian forces recently advanced southeast of Kupyansk, and Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Kreminna amid continued Russian ground attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on June 30. Geolocated footage published on June 30 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced east of Stelmakhivka (southeast of Kupyansk).[45] Geolocated footage published on June 29 indicates that Ukrainian forces recently advanced north of Hryhorivka (south of Kreminna).[46] Russian and Ukrainian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked in the forest area south of Kreminna and west of Kreminna near Terny.[47] Fighting continued southeast of Kupyansk near Stelmakhivka and Pishchane; northwest of Kreminna near Makiivka and Nevske; and west of Kreminna near Torske on June 30.[48] Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets stated on June 30 that elements of at least half of the 144th Motorized Rifle Division's (20th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Moscow Military District [MMD]) subordinated units are operating alongside elements of the 25th CAA (Central Military District [CMD]) in the Terny-Yampolivka area.[49] Mashovets stated that elements of the Russian 3rd Motorized Rifle Division (20th CAA, MMD) are operating in the Makiivka-Nevske area.[50] Mashovets stated that elements of the 21st, 36th, and 37th motorized rifle regiments and 19th Tank Regiment (all of the 67th Motorized Rifle Division, 25th CAA) and elements of the 164th and 169th separate motorized rifle brigades and 11th Separate Tank Brigade (all of the 25th CAA) are operating in the Lyman direction.[51]
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Russian President Vladimir Putin's theory of victory that Russia will be able to make creeping advances in Ukraine indefinitely will incentivize Putin to protract the war and harden Putin's commitment to destroying Ukrainian statehood. The West must hasten to provide Ukraine the support it needs to conduct counteroffensive operations to invalidate Putin's theory of victory and avoid protracting the war more than necessary to secure a peace acceptable to Ukraine and its partners. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated in an interview with the Philadelphia Inquirer published on June 30 that he fears that the West is afraid of pushing for full Ukrainian victory due to Western concerns about Russian stability and that this fear has allowed Putin to pursue the seizure of as much Ukrainian territory as possible.[1] Zelensky warned that every Russian advance strengthens Russia's bargaining power and that Putin can choose to try to leverage this bargaining power at opportune moments to pursue a ceasefire that would allow Russia to prepare for future aggression against Ukraine.[2]
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