Has anyone else noticed that 2024 is a little like 2016 in reverse.
Back then all the political experts told us Trump could not win. Same for Biden now.
Back then Hillary took a weak VP choice that did little to help her ticket. Same for Trump now.
Back then the RNC was split and full of infighting over whether Trump could stay in the race. Same for the DNC now.
Back then “all the polls” said Hillary had this in the bag (when they really didn’t quite say that). Now, “all the polls” say Trump is inevitable (when they really don’t say that).
Back then Trump refused to leave the race, and he was right. Now, Biden is—at least for now—on the same path.
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I just don’t believe changing candidates in July/August is a strong approach. Whoever comes next will immediately be labeled ineligible by Republicans, and our wonderful media will entertain whatever theory of that case they make, and for weeks.
The GOP will say the Democrats are pulling one over the American People, that they are indecisive and weak and shifty. (On this, alas, it seems they would be, and to some good extent already are, right.)
I’ve gone back and forth on this a lot, but the truth is that the best chance we have to win is with Biden. If anyone believes the forecasting model of 538, Biden’s chances have improved visibly, if only marginally, in the last 3 weeks, pulling into a slight lead of 54% to 46% chance of victory.
A lot will happen in the fall:
- there may be a rate cut from the Fed in September (this is likelier than not);
- Trump may be sentenced for his New York felonies;
- there may be a “mini-trial” for the January 6th cases;
- we can expect an uptick in consumer confidence (especially considering the latest inflation data).
Why not fight this out, instead of fighting with one another?