I know, I know— she has no interest. Zero. She indulged the man she loves, but does not enjoy the political life, and it’s gotten so much worse since she had to deal with it.
I don’t get why some people are hyping Pritzker, who isn’t all that popular even in Illinois.
I take the Whitmer/Beshear numbers with a big grain, because they’re not well known nationally, and may have much higher upsides than the polls now register. Poll Whitmer against Trump in critical swing state Michigan. Mark Kelly against Trump in Arizona. Josh Shapiro in Pennsylvania. Those might be interesting. Raphael Warnock would also be an interesting candidate, but we can’t afford to lose that Senate seat. I do think Beshear could be on a ticket some day, but he’s far too moderate for now. And he’s not putting Kentucky in play. Maybe possibly maybe Ohio.
This poll also reflects two interesting dynamics that seem consistent since the debate: Biden’s numbers don’t seem to have taken a big hit, maybe not any at all. And the best non-Biden candidate appears to be his Vice President, Kamala Harris. She was my first choice for 2020, but if Biden did drop out I worry she would suffer a Mondale effect. I do think that if Walter Mondale had sat out 1984 and re-established his identity apart from the unpopular administration in which he’d served, he’d have won in 1988.
Harris is young. She has plenty of time. But if Biden were to drop out, and she polls the best against Trump, she should be our nominee. We have to win. Period. If she doesn’t poll the best, we need someone else. We have to win. Period. And whatever the case, we definitely would need everything settled behind closed doors. A fractious convention would be political suicide.
I’ve been very clear that I think Joe Biden has been a terrific president. His disapproval numbers baffle me. He inherited a multilayered crisis, an almost evenly split Congress, an unhinged extremist Republican Party, and a Senate balance held by two toxic narcissist Democrats. And despite that, he ended the pandemic, got the economy roaring, repaired our relationships with elective governments around the world, and passed plenty of progressive legislation, including the most aggressive climate bill ever. History will be far kinder to him than contemporary popular opinion. And yet, all that said, popular opinion is what it is, the race is far closer than it should be, and I’m agnostic on where we go from here.
I hate polls, but it’s all about the polls right now. It’s all about Biden’s ability to motivate Democratic and Democratically leaning non-Democratic voters, while winning swing voters, even though anyone swinging on this election has far more serious cognitive issues than Biden might have. So, I’m watching the polls. If things are stable, we may be okay. But if they’re not, we need options. We have to win. Period.
Paging Mrs. Obama.
I know, I know...