First let me introduce myself. I am a retired physician and USAF veteran. I have been a longtime lurker on this site and greatly appreciate its many excellent articles and contributors. I am now compelled to contribute my own writing to advance an argument that I know goes against the prevailing sentiment on this site but which I hope will add to the informed discussion regarding this most important topic during this time of political crisis. I have three major points I wish to cover that I will address in outline fashion for the sake of clarity.
1. Age is not the issue — capability is.
I have been a lifelong supporter of the Democratic party and a supporter of President Biden until last week. I am well aware of his advanced age but I — and I am sure many of you as well — personally know/have known several individuals of Biden’s age or older who maintain the mental acuity of many who are decades younger. I had believed that President Biden was one of these individuals so it was an extremely painful and heartbreaking experience to witness his performance on stage last Thursday. The confusion, lack of energy, loss of concentration, staring and occasional word salads all contributed to the impression of a man with diminished mental faculties. It is true that he seemed to rally near the end but by then the damage had been done.
Since the debate, multiple accounts of a decline in Biden’s mental state have now come out that indicate his debate performance was not a one-off episode due to jet lag, a cold, overpreparation or whatever — but rather one example among many over the past 1-2 years that indicate a gradual deterioration in his mental abilities. In this time of existential crisis for democracy, I believe that we deserve the strongest, most capable and energetic fighter to combat Trump’s innumerable lies and I have regretfully come to the conclusion that Joe Biden is no longer that warrior. His record in office shows a politician who has achieved an incredible amount on behalf of the American people but unfortunately voters are not entirely rational and a significant proportion will vote more on perception rather than genuine accomplishments. In my opinion, President Biden’s image has been fatally wounded by his debate performance and it is time to choose someone else.
2. Elections are not about possibilities but rather probabilities.
Due to my training (and perhaps personality) I am a “numbers guy” and do not think in terms of yes or no answers (or other binary terms) but rather in terms of likelihood or probability. Think of it this way: is it possible that any one of you could win the national lottery/jackpot (assuming you buy a ticket)? Of course the answer is yes but when you frame the question in terms of the likelihood of doing so the answer comes out to be closer to practically zero.
So for me the most relevant question regarding Biden at this point is whether he is still electable. The bigger question for all of us is whether there is another Democrat who is more electable than Biden. The answer to the first question, in my opinion, is yes — Biden is still electable but for that to happen he would need to convince the American people that his debate performance was indeed a one-off experience that would not happen again. This seems a very tall order at this point for the reasons I gave above and to my estimation has become highly unlikely.
Polling performed since the debate supports declining electability for Biden. A CNN poll conducted from 6/28-6/30/24 of 1045 registered voters nationwide showed Trump with a 6-point lead over Biden (49-43). The “bright” spot in this is that these numbers were unchanged from a week earlier (before the debate) — but still bad. On the other hand, his approval rating has dropped to an all-time low of 36% and the number of voters who prefer an alternative has hit a high of 75%. Interestingly, when Trump was matched against Kamala Harris his lead dropped to only two points — 47 to 45.
A NYT/Siena poll of 1532 registered voters conducted from 6/28-7/2/24 showed the same numbers as the CNN poll (Trump 49 to Biden 43) with the difference that this represented a 3-point gain for Trump over his pre-debate numbers — and the largest Trump lead in this poll since 2015. The same poll done before the debate was criticised for over-representing Republicans but the most recent poll corrected for this — Republicans constituted 29% of respondents, Democrats 28% and Independents 33%.
Finally, a CBS News poll conducted from 6/28-7/2/24 of 2826 registered voters showed a reversal in numbers for Biden-Trump from 51% (Biden) to 49% (Trump) one month ago to 48% (Biden) to 50% (Trump) currently. More ominously, when looking only at battleground states (AZ, GA, MI, NC, NV, PA, WI) Trump’s lead widened to three points (51 to 48).
To conclude this section I would like to add a few words on poll reliability. Every poll has its weaknesses/flaws and each poll deserves to be scrutinized for these. Any single poll may or may not indicate a true trend or outcome but when the results of multiple polls are taken in aggregate, the overall results are much stronger and more reliable than any of the constituent individual polls, no matter how flawed they may be — for the simple reason that different polls use somewhat different methodologies and survey different individuals so the same flaw is unlikely to be repeated across multiple polls. So when the outcome of several different polls all trend in the same direction, then one can be reasonably certain that the aggregate results represent a real trend.
3. Loyalty should belong to the country and the cause above all and not to a single individual
I have seen several posts that basically say we owe it to President Biden to support him because of all he has done for the American people. And to a limited extent, I agree with this. On the other hand, if one views political candidates as surrogates who represent and fight for the ideals which we believe in then we owe it to our principles to look for a different candidate if the current one is incapable or poorly capable of representing or fighting for those principles. In the current circumstances, for all the reasons I have listed above, I feel that President Biden is unfortunately diminished in being able to fight for the ideals which we all believe in. The blame for this is probably due to multiple factors — his aides, the media, unrealistic expectations on the part of the public and Biden himself — but at this point I feel the current evidence supports replacing President Biden to represent us and the American people. If we do not rapidly change course then I fear that we are on the political equivalent of the Titanic with disastrous results awaiting us. Thank you for reading this.