With all the talk in the media about a potential switch, I’ve been carefully considering the pluses and minuses of keeping the Biden/Harris ticket as well as the alternative. There are many points to consider, most of which have already been the subject of numerous stories on this platform so I won’t repeat them. But there are a few things which I believe may gotten little or no attention, or at least less attention than they deserve, and I will focus on those items, in no particular order. One thing to note, I am not advocating to keep or replace Joe Biden as the Democratic Party nominee. The truth is, I am not sure what the best option is. I do not want this to become a fight but instead a cooperative effort to find the best path forward. I am just putting a few considerations out there and hoping to prompt some additional perspectives and views that I and/or others may have missed as part of our shared effort to get Dem candidates elected in November.
- Known Quantity. Joe Biden is a known quantity and always been generally well-liked, particular among independents and moderate Republicans. Yes, the GOP has launched ferocious attacks against his character ever since he declared in 2020, but he has stood up well to those attack that would be the same for any Dem nominee. In the event of a switch, we cannot know how a replacement will stand up to the storm, nor how well-liked that person would be among the electorate once they get to know the candidate better.
- The Nevada & Wisconsin Deadlines for Switch Have Passed. In NV, Biden cannot be removed from the ballot unless he dies or is declared incompetent, and even those exceptions only last until the latter part of July. In WI, the only exception is death. There is little hope for getting change in the law because Nevada has a GOP governor who would veto any last minute changes in favour of Dems, while in WI, legislature has a GOP supermajority. I suppose it is possible the Democratic Party organisation could try to convince the state supreme courts in those states to come up with a reason to disregard the statutes but other candidates for lower-level offices have tried in the past and not succeeded so I am skeptical. Some might contemplate that if Biden’s name stayed on the ballot, he could still win NV and WI and his electors could then become faithless electors and vote for a new Dem nominee. That is true, but it won’t really help because this will be a close election in both states and if the Dem nominee wins, it will be by a razor thin margin. The problem is that a small but significant number of voters who otherwise would support the Dem candidate will not vote for a person who is no longer running. They will vote for RFK Jr., the Greens, Cornel West, or leave the presidential slot blank, in each case diverting voters away from the Dem electors. Another significant group of voters will write-in the name of the new candidate, an act which will also divert voters. The number of lost voters will almost certainly be larger than any Dem margin of victory that can be reasonable expected. There is simply no realistic way that WI and NV can be won when Dems start with that kind of handicap. That means that a new Dem candidate would necessarily start the race down 16 otherwise winnable EVs. In an already tough nationwide race, that would make winning extraordinarily difficult.
- Credibility. In the event of a switch, Biden would need to voluntarily step down, publicly stating that he could continue to lead, but after conversations with the party and the people, he has decided he wants to hand the baton to a new generation. It cannot be linked in any way to cognitive limitations or incapacitation in any way, or a forced removal of Biden because that will harm the entire party because up to a week ago, the entire Dem caucus in Congress and the party leadership nationwide, top to bottom, plus the vast majority of rank and file Democrats were fervently attacking claims that Joe is not up to the job as utter nonsense and right wing lies. If Dems suddenly say, “Oops, we were wrong, we now admit that he is incapable of serving even though we denied it right up to a week ago”, well, that would annihilate Dem credibility among moderates and independents and help drive us towards defeat in November. The problem now is that Joe has announced that he is and will remain the Dem nominee and will stay on. That means that unless he changes his mind, the only way to replace him would be an involuntary removal at the convention. That would be a tacit admission of incapacitation, however and would vastly increase the pressure to remove him as president under the 25th Amendment. Not a good look at all. No matter how you slice it, a change would be a mess and cause huge damage to the party and its reputation.
- Campaign Cash. The Biden/Harris campaign has a lot of cash, but in the event of a switch, it could be used only if Kamala was the new nominee. The truth is that Kamala did not show herself to be a good campaigner in the 2020 primary — in fact she did not even make it to the Iowa caucuses and was torn apart by fellow candidate and former Dem Tulsi Gabbard at the debates. That could easily put the party in a difficult situation. If party leadership does not believe Kamala gives us the best chance to win, it then has to to choose between a candidate who has the cash but a lesser chance of winning vs. someone they believe has the best shot at winning, but starts out with severe self-inflicted financial wound. Needless to say, neither are attractive options.
I don’t think there are any easy solutions for the current situation and I certainly do not claim to have the answers or even be sure I am asking the right questions. But I do believe it is worth asking folks to give their thoughts. As always, diverse views on how we can achieve the same goal (ie. electing Dems) using a different strategy or in a different way and constructive criticism in furtherance of our shared goal are always welcome, but petty authoritarians who insist that only their strategy or their views are valid and everyone else must shut- the heck up . . . well, I kindly request you refrain.