Today’s CNN interview with James Carville tells us only one thing: that Dems must stop talking about whatever inevitability will happen with candidates and concentrate on anti-MAGA messaging until election day. Otherwise Carville is casting about for some way to leverage an open DNC convention, which could be a fool’s errand.
The short answer is that the MAGA movement is so unpopular that it mobilized a coalition against Trump and the GOP. An emerging anti-MAGA majority, consisting of voters not on the table in 2016, turned out in record numbers to defeat MAGA. Indeed, the data suggests that Trump’s surprise victory in 2016 might be most noteworthy long term for the strong coalition that formed in opposition to MAGA candidates.
The unprecedented surge in new voters is made up of two components. First, young people voting at higher rates than previous generations are rejecting MAGA by 20-point margins. The second component is those who voted for Barack Obama but skipped the 2016 election, dubbed “Obama-nones.”
The first group—voters who turned 18 in the last eight years—is getting a unique introduction to politics. Everyone understands the lasting partisan impact inspirational leaders like Franklin D. Roosevelt, John F. Kennedy, Ronald Reagan, and Obama had on those who came of age during their presidencies. This generation, though, is coming of age when everybody around them, plus the popular culture, loathes Trump. Especially in blue states and purple states where MAGA candidates dominate uncompetitive GOP primaries, there isn’t a reasonable Republican to be found. To these young voters, Trump is the Republican Party, and they oppose it. For the second group of “Obama-none voters,” Trump’s term in office and subsequent legal woes seem to have shaken them out of whatever ambivalence kept them from the polls in 2016.
washingtonmonthly.com/...
James Carville Says Biden Dropping Out Is 'Inevitable': 'Everyone Knows What's Going On Here'
During a Monday morning, July 8 appearance on MSNBC's "Morning Joe," President Joe Biden vowed to stay in the United States' 2024 presidential race and reiterated that he has no plan to drop out.
But a few hours later, the New York Times published an op-ed/essay by veteran Democratic strategist James Carville — who argues that Biden's days as the presumptive nominee are numbered and lays out a game plan for finding another presidential nominee to run against Donald Trump.
"Mark my words: Joe Biden is going to be out of the 2024 presidential race," Carville predicts. "Whether he is ready to admit it or not. His pleas on Monday to congressional Democrats for support will not unite the party behind him. Mr. Biden says he's staying in the race, but it's only a matter of time before Democratic pressure and public and private polling lead him to exit the race."
www.alternet.org/...
"You want the prosecutor or you want the criminal? Not the worst question to put to the American public this November...”
6 July
President Biden's biggest supporters and skeptics in the Senate remained at odds after a closed-door meeting on Tuesday afternoon, Axios has learned.
Why it matters: Senate Democrats didn't reach a consensus about how the party should move forward at the top of the ticket in November, as concerns fester about whether Biden can beat former President Trump.
- Behind closed doors. Biden's staunchest supporters, like Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.), pitched other Democrats on the dangers of another Trump presidency and defended some of Biden's most glaring weaknesses.
- Others who are skeptical that Biden can defeat Trump said the conversation was "constructive" but many remain unmoved.
[..]
Reality check: What Democrats did not say is that they are united behind Biden as the nominee.
- Instead, it looks like Democrats remain divided. This, despite a number of them saying this week that they need to come to a consensus sooner rather than later.
www.axios.com/...