I have a thing. I have a thing I was going to mention, just a proposal to throw out there. When Sam Seaborn was a congressional aide, they had an expression, "no idea was too stupid to say out loud."
I've decided to use Daily Kos as a safe place to brainstorm. We'll see if that decision bears fruit on the flip.
A cursory look at the documents published on the White House website makes it look like Social Security will take in about $820B and pay out about $540B in 2006. So of the 12.4% tax, only about 8.2% is needed to pay the benefits. That of course will rise over time, and real reform will be necessary, but we'll do it on
our terms.
The idea: Why don't we propose to cut the FICA tax by 4.2%? The proposal would include a provision for the tax to ratchet up annually up to 12.4%, pending real reform.
The FICA tax is regressive to begin with, and for low-income Americans it is a significant one. Cutting it will be the kind of tax cut that helps the right people. What makes it even better, though, is that the Republicans would never let it happen.
Getting rid of the Social Security surplus would negate the accounting tricks that make it look like the on-budget deficit is only [Note To Self: find the up-to-date, huge number before posting]. To keep the deficit from increasing by another $280B, they would have to roll back the Bush tax cuts, which they'll never do. A deficit increase of that magnitude would increase either interest rates or inflation, which they don't want going into November.
If they allow the FICA tax cut to go through, interest rates go up and they are hurt in November. If they vote against it, then they've just voted against a tax cut that would help millions of people in an election year. It's a rock and a hard place.
Of course, there are any number of places where my numbers or analysis could be wrong, which is why I'm asking for input. Your thoughts?