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55
39
Research 2000. 11/16-11/19
MoE 2%.
More poll results here.
FL-Sen 11/19
VA-Gov 10/29
NJ-Gov 10/29
NY-23 10/29
NY-23 10/23
IA-Sen 10/16
IA-Gov 10/16
(More...)

Green Diary Rescue & Open Thread

Fri Nov 20, 2009 at 09:05:01 PM PST

Robert S. Eshelman writes in The Nation:

Where's the Clean Energy?:

It was in Germany that Ed Regan realized Gainesville, Florida, was going about things all wrong. The assistant manager at Gainesville Regional Utility (GRU) was out looking for ways to boost his city's renewable energy capacity. "Germany was a game-changer," Regan says. Wind turbines and solar panels seemed to be everywhere. He soon learned the secret.

Before Regan's June 2008 trip, the GRU was trying to promote small-scale renewable energy generation by offering hefty cash rebates to customers who installed solar photovoltaic panels. And it had a "net metering program" that allowed customers who generate their own power to run their electricity meters backward, thereby cutting their electric bills potentially to zero.

But the programs weren't attracting a great deal of interest. The utility's rebate program had yielded only 300 kilowatts of solar power capacity--roughly the amount of electricity used by 160 hair dryers--and it cost a lot of money.

The difference between Gainesville and Germany was that Germany had a national feed-in tariff. Under this system, energy consumers can become renewable energy producers by installing solar panels on their roof or a wind turbine in their backyard and selling their energy to the local utility. These customers-turned-producers receive above-market prices for their energy, often for up to twenty years. With the feed-in tariff, Germany boosted its renewable energy production from 1 percent of its total output in 1995 to 12 percent in 2005. By 2007 renewables supplied 14 percent of Germany's electricity. Denmark and Spain also have successful feed-in tariff programs.

So this past March, Gainesville rolled out its own feed-in tariff. GRU now pays twice the retail cost for every kilowatt of solar power-generated electricity. The extra cost means a small increase in electrical bills for all utility consumers, less than a dollar per month per household.

But in order to keep consumer prices down, the feed-in tariff is limited to expand by only 4 megawatts of solar photovoltaic capacity per year, for six years. And the first year's quota was snapped up in just two weeks. The program now has a waiting list through 2016. Rather than a bunch of homeowners each installing a few panels, the Gainesville quotas were mostly taken by commercial investors.

• • • • • • •

Green Diary Rescues appear on Wednesdays, Fridays and Saturdays. The diary rescue begins below and continues in the jump. Inclusion of a particular diary does not necessarily indicate my agreement with it.

• • • • • • •

Rei asked Who's killing the electric car again?: "How did a woman who the SEC says planned one of the largest accounting frauds in US history end up as Chief Financial Officer of Aptera Motors? It's just one of many questions swirling around what appears to be a meltdown in progress at the beleagured manufacturer of safe, hyper-efficient electric vehicles.  When a business is running smoothly, there are strong incentives for everyone to be a team player and hide any signs of internal strife.  As the rate of layoffs and "vacations" increases, however, so does the potential for leaks.  And sometimes a simple name can take you places you never thought you'd go."

David Brin offered a lesson in capitalism with his diary Re-allocating energy research: "The Obama Administration, while pumping up funding and incentives to further develop hybrid vehicles, has slashed $100 million (60%) from the budget for George W. Bush’s preferred approach -- hydrogen fueled cars.  Of course, this is one more sign that we are being led by people who want America to succeed, and no longer by technological morons, determined to make every possible wrong decision. Why am I so fierce in my appraisal of so-called ‘hydrogen-power’ -- despite my portraying it positively, in several stories and novels? Because it cannot possibly help us in the near (twenty year) future, as was cogently pointed out recently by Energy Secretary (and Nobel winner) Stephen Chu. "


Open Thread and Diary Rescue

Fri Nov 20, 2009 at 08:16:38 PM PST

On this TCCIF*, the rangers are srkp23, vcmvo2, dadanation, ybruti, blank frank, and jlms qkw waved the editor's wand. *Thank Ceiling Cat It's Friday

Please celebrate good writing with us and show these diarists some love - commenting, recommending, and subscribing are all appropriate!

jotter brings us another excellent edition of High Impact Diaries: November 19, 2009.

emeraldmaiden has Top Comments 11/20/09 - A Letter from Diaper Dave.

Please share your own favorite diaries from the past 24 hours in this Open Thread.

Polling and Political Wrap-Up, 11/20/09

Fri Nov 20, 2009 at 07:40:05 PM PST

The weekend beckons....

CA-Sen: Boxer Maintains Solid Edge, Even in Ras Poll
Given that the Rasmussen poll in question had some data that hinted at a GOP skew (the 55% job approval for President Obama, for example), the news on the Senate race has to be considered very good news for Democratic Senator Barbara Boxer. In the new Rasmussen poll, she leads both of her likely Republican challengers (Carly Fiorina and Chuck DeVore) by nearly identical margins. She leads Fiorina by nine (46-37) and leads Devore by a ten-point margin (49-39).

The Race for 2012: Obama Still Leads All Comers, According to PPP
Despite flagging approval numbers with the same pollster (PPP had him under 50% for the first time this week), a new set of numbers on the 2012 elections from PPP (PDF File) shows that President Barack Obama has leads of between 5-8 points over four leading GOP figures. As has been customary as of late, Mike Huckabee (49-44) and Mitt Romney (48-43) keep Obama the closest in terms of margin. Against Sarah Palin (51-43) and Ron Paul (46-38), Obama stretches out his advantage.

National: An Embarrassing Moment For Gallup
It was almost undoubtedly coincidental, but a sequence of events occurring over the past few days has put quite a bit of egg on the face of the most venerable pollster in the game: Gallup. Apparently, Rush Limbaugh decided recently to mix his polling analysis with a little racist speculation:

"Gallup has it [Obama's job approval] just teetering there on the
little teeter-totter at 50%, and they're doing everything they can,
they're upping the sample of black Americans, to keep him at 50% in
the Gallup poll."

This, of course, is an incredibly serious accusation, and it led to a sharp denial from Gallup polling head Frank Newport on Thursday. But what happened on Friday? Gallup's tracking poll broke the barrier and found Obama at 49%. No word on how many seconds into his broadcast it took for Limbaugh to claim the credit and proclaim his infallibility.

IN POLITICAL NEWS....

  • NY-23: If you wondering what was going to be the excuse du jour for Doug Hoffman and the teabagger crowd in explaining his defeat to Democrat Bill Owens, wonder no more: the computer virus stole the election this time. Put the virus next to ACORN, labor unions, Democrats, and beer bottles on the shelf of reasons why Doug Hoffman was defeated. Like most allegations from Team Hoffman, this one did not stand up well to scrutiny. Hoffman is still contemplating a challenge to the election this weekend, despite the fact that nearly a dozen 2008 contests wound up closer than his race with Bill Owens.
  • MD-01: It is an internal poll, so enjoy it seasoned with a grain (or several) of salt, but Republican Andy Harris is claiming he has a thirteen-point lead over incumbent Democrat Frank Kratovil in Maryland's 1st District.
  • THE MONEY CHASE: If the NRCC is going to lead the way to a GOP resurgence in the House, they probably need to get on the stick: the DCCC outraised their GOP counterparts again in October. The NRCC only has about $4 million on hand for the 2010 cycle, far less than the DCCC had in either 2006 or 2008.
  • OR-Gov: And then there were two (major candidates, at least) on the Democratic side to be the next Governor of Oregon. Steve Shields, a former executive with Hewlett Packard, packed in his bid to be Governor via a message at his website. This leaves former Governor John Kitzhaber and former Secretary of State (and 2002 Senate nominee) Bill Bradbury as the leading Democratic candidates. Worth noting, though, is that Congressman Peter DeFazio has not yet slammed the door shut on a bid of his own (although he has made little movement, either).
  • MN-01: After cruising in 2008 against an outgunned opponent, Democratic sophomore Rep. Tim Walz might have drawn a slightly higher caliber opponent for 2010. Allen Quist, a former state legislator who made a run at popular moderate GOP Governor Arne Carlson from the right in 1994, is seeking a political second act in a bid against Walz.

Race tracker wiki: CA-Sen NY-23 MD-01 OR-Gov MN-01

Flashback to Irony

Fri Nov 20, 2009 at 07:00:05 PM PST

Via Grist, the caption reads "EACH DAY HUMBLE SUPPLIES ENOUGH ENERGY TO MELT 7 MILLION TONS OF GLACIER!"

Reportedly from a 1962 edition of Life Magazine -- no way to tell for sure without an original copy of that edition. Humble Oil merged with Standard Oil which underwent various name and organizational changes, to eventually become Exxon-Mobil, the world's largest energy company and the most profitable single company in history. But one thing remains the same: they're still melting tons of glacier and they're probably just as proud of it now as they were way back then ...

Open Thread

Fri Nov 20, 2009 at 06:54:01 PM PST

Jibber jabber.

Glenn Beck's boss, wingnut and coward

Fri Nov 20, 2009 at 06:20:05 PM PST

Keith Olbermann rips News Corp. Chairman Rupert Murdoch for denying that he had accused President Obama of making racist comments:

Unfortunately for Murdoch, he did accuse Pres. Obama of making racist comments, and Keith plays the video.

It’s bad enough that Rupert Murdoch would have ever back Glenn Beck’s absurd allegation that Barack Obama is a racist; the fact that he doesn’t have the intestinal fortitude to stick by that attack shows that Murdoch isn’t just a wingnut, he’s a coward.

Michigan Town Tells Liz Cheney To Peddle Her Fearmongering Elsewhere

Fri Nov 20, 2009 at 05:32:05 PM PST

Standish, Michigan, tells Liz Cheney to sell it up the street:

Officials in a small Michigan town featured in a new video about Guantanamo by Liz Cheney’s national security group want her to know that they’re not falling for her “fearmongering” — and tell us they want Gitmo detainees in their town.

Cheney’s group, Keep America Safe, has released a short documentary starring several residents of little Standish, Michigan, slamming the Obama administration over a proposal to transfer some Guantanamo detainees to the town’s maximum security facility, one of several facilities being discussed.  [...]

Cheney is “certainly not representing the views of our community,” the City Manager, Michael Moran, told our reporter, Amanda Erickson.

While some local residents do appear to have expressed mixed feelings or opposition to the plan, Moran says that they’re an isolated minority that Ms. Cheney’s video elevates out of proportion in a way that’s “off base.”

The teabagger way -- pretend that the voice of extremism is speaking for everyone.

Late afternoon/early evening open thread

Fri Nov 20, 2009 at 04:42:04 PM PST

What's coming up on Sunday Kos ....

  • Behind the scenes, United States and Russian negotiators have been hard at work hammering out a new START, or Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty. The Treaty expires on December 5, 2009, and it looks like neither of the legislative bodies in either country will ratify it in time. Plutonium Page will explain what the obstacles are, and how the two countries will handle the gap between the missed deadline and actual treaty ratification.
  • DarkSyde will introduce a few glitches in the incredible human immune system and exposes some aberrations of our dysfunctional healthcare system in "Resistance is Futile."
  • When we think and talk politics and strategy, there are distinctions that too easily get blurred. Laura Clawson will highlight some of the fault lines.
  • DemFromCT will review how the breast cancer screening panel misaligned the science, the politics and the commmunication... and why it matters.
  • Last month, Germany, France, the United States, Russia, Britain, and China met with Iranian nuclear negotiators to discuss a deal in which Iran would send most of its low-enriched uranium out of the country to be further enriched and fabricated into fuel for the Tehran Research Reactor. Since then, a lot has happened, including Iran's official rejection of the deal as well as a new, troubling report from the International Atomic Energy Agency on Iran's nuclear facilities. Plutonium Page will discuss all of this in detail, and what it means for the future.

Cheers and Jeers: Rum and Coke FRIDAY!

Fri Nov 20, 2009 at 04:10:59 PM PST

From the GREAT STATE OF MAINE...

This Late Night Snark Has 60 Votes:

"Former Vice President Dick Cheney slammed President Obama for bowing before the Emperor of Japan. Cheney said, 'C’mon, it’s not like he’s the CEO of Exxon.'"
---Conan O'Brien
-
"[Sarah] Palin says that women are held to a higher standard than men. She quotes Margaret Thatcher who said, 'If you want something said, ask a man. If you want something done, ask a woman.' It's an interesting theory. I guess that’s why she asked a woman to write the book for her."
---Jimmy Kimmel
-
"Republicans Steve King and Pete Hoekstra attempted to wrap the Capitol with the 1,900-page healthcare bill. I mean, come on---shouldn’t that time be spent actually reading the bill? But you know the only way some of them will read it is resting it on the back of the hooker they're bonin' at the C Street House."
----Wanda Sykes
-
"A tanker truck carrying 7,000 gallons of Canadian Club whiskey overturned on a Kentucky highway on its way to the Jim Beam distillery. Said a nearby child: 'It smells like uncles.'"
---Seth Meyers

Oh, and apparently the reason why Republicans have been freaking out this year is because they're just now finding time to read their back issues of Oh My God We're So Screwed magazine from 2004. Seriously...

Jon Stewart: There's a fear out there that seems irrational.
Exploiter of Irrational Fears Lou Dobbs: I think that part of that fear certainly is. I also think part of that fear is simply catching up with the events of some years ago...say, four or five years ago.
Jon Stewart: Why do [people] always catch up to the fears during Democratic administrations? It feels like all the people who want limited government really just want government limited to Republicans.
---The Daily Show

And now a brief Special Comment: Since the right-wing fringers enjoy sharing their favorite Bible verses with us, I'd like to reciprocate by sharing one of mine with them. It comes right after Psalm 109:8 and I believe it says:

And the wise man lookethed at the creepy people seething with un-Christlike rage at their duly-elected  leader and saideth, "Bite me, douchebags." And lo the Lord respondedeth: "Amen, Brother. You getteth the pie and they getteth the clap."

Yeah. That's how I remember it.

Your west coast-friendly edition of Cheers and Jeers starts in There's Moreville... [Swoosh!!] RIGHTNOW! [Gong!!]

Poll

Who won the week?

1%76 votes
33%1387 votes
3%141 votes
5%248 votes
3%137 votes
3%161 votes
1%74 votes
2%92 votes
1%62 votes
28%1199 votes
10%418 votes
2%92 votes
1%67 votes

| 4154 votes | Vote | Results

Weekly Tracking Poll: Pelosi At A Six-Month High

Fri Nov 20, 2009 at 03:20:04 PM PST

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 11/16/2009-11/19/2009. All adults. MoE 2% (Last weeks results in parentheses):

FAVORABLEUNFAVORABLENET CHANGE
PRESIDENT OBAMA55 (56)39 (38)-2
PELOSI:40 (39)51 (52)+2
REID:32 (32)58 (57)-2
McCONNELL:14 (15)68 (67)-2
BOEHNER:13 (14)65 (65)-1
CONGRESSIONAL DEMS:42 (41)53 (52)0
CONGRESSIONAL GOPS:13 (14)71 (71)-1
DEMOCRATIC PARTY:44 (43)50 (49)0
REPUBLICAN PARTY:23 (22)67 (67)+1

Full crosstabs here. This poll is updated every Friday morning, and you can see trendline graphs here.

For the first time in quite a while, this is a week where most of the results can be attributed to a fairly undecipherable bit of float. There were no consistent partisan patterns in the numbers: the GOPers in the Congress lose a point, while the GOP in general actually gains back a point off of its recent losses.

There is one headline emerging out of the recent polling, however. And if a picture is worth a thousand words, this graph speaks better to the recent trend than I ever could:

On what one could call "Black Friday" in the history of the Daily Kos tracking poll (September 4th), the Democrats were in their bleakest moments of public esteem for the year. This was the week where Barack Obama scored the weakest favorability numbers (+9; 52/43) of his presidency.

On that day, coincidentally, both Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid suffered from the same doldrums of net favorability: -27.

Now, just ten weeks later, Nancy Pelosi stands at a -11 net favorability. While that is not exactly a statistical achievement to write home about, it is a substantial improvement over her standing in early September.

Meanwhile, Senator Reid still languishes at -26, essentially unchanged in that same ten week period. Whereas Speaker Pelosi's favorables with Democrats stand at 85%, Senator Reid's favorables with his own party sit at just 64%.

However, it would be wrong to presume that this is strictly a base-driven separation in their numbers. Take a look at how the standing of these two political leaders have changed with Independent voters from the Labor Day weekend until now.

Favorables Among Independents, 11/19/09 (9/3 results in parens)

Nancy Pelosi (D): 28 (20)
Harry Reid (D): 24 (27)

This poll finding challenges an awful lot of conventional wisdom. As everyone here well knows, Speaker Pelosi has been far more aggressive than her Senate colleague on health care reform.

The purveyors of conventional wisdom would no doubt argue that while that might keep "the liberal base" happy, it will be political suicide with Independents. Yet Nancy Pelosi's favorability has risen markedly with Independents, while the more incremental and cautious Harry Reid has actually seen his standing with Independents dissipate by a few points.

The punditocracy has also suggested that opposition to aggressive reform is the ticket to the hearts of the Independent voter.

So, how have the two leading architects of "just say no" fared with Independent voters?

Favorables Among Independents, 11/19/09 (9/3 results in parens)

Mitch McConnell (R): 5 (13)
John Boehner: 5 (6)

Even at the height of the "teabagger summer", both of the GOP leaders had minimal support with Independent voters. All the past ten weeks have managed to do is take meager favorability numbers, and make them even smaller.

On our variation of the generic ballot test, the Democrats maintain a six-point advantage (37-31). The Independent voters are still the biggest pool of undecided voters, with 60% of Indies refusing to get off the fence. This is something that Democrats have to be mindful of, because as Tom Jensen of Public Policy Polling pointed out last week, voters that disapprove of both parties (as Independents tend to do) are more likely to vote GOP. The key is work on turning Independent voters into soft Democratic supporters. Based on the recent favorability figures, one Democratic congressional leader seems to have a better solution for doing so than the other.

Senate Pushes "don't ask, don't tell" Down The Road ... Again

Fri Nov 20, 2009 at 02:30:04 PM PST

And so it goes:

A planned November hearing by the US Senate Armed Services Committee to consider ending a ban on gays serving openly in the US military will be postponed, a spokeswoman indicated Friday.

"We do not have a date" for the hearing, said the aide, Tara Andringa.

Too busy, full plate, push it down the road a little bit, or whatever the pat on the head of the day is ...

Over 8 Million Uninsured Children In America

Fri Nov 20, 2009 at 01:42:03 PM PST

Organizing for America (OFA) has announced the winner of their Health Reform Video Challenge:

OFA will:

... air the ad on national cable and in D.C. beginning Monday, in an effort to up the moral and emotional urgency of the health care debate with the message that the lives of an untold number of individual children hang in the balance.

Former half-term governor ditches fans waiting in cold

Fri Nov 20, 2009 at 12:50:04 PM PST

As both Kevin K. and Dave Weigel noted earlier today, Sarah Palin angered and disappointed fans in Noblesville, Indiana yesterday when she abruptly left a book signing promotion even though there were many fans still waiting in line to receive her signature on their newly purchased copies of Going Rogue.

Here’s a video compilation of reaction from fans stiffed by Palin broadcast by local Indiana news outlets:

Among the highlights:

It's too bad because this morning it wasn't really pleasant to be in line for three hours, you know, and I'm really disappointed.

We gave up our entire workday, stayed in the cold, my kids were crying. They went home with my wife. She was out here in the freezing cold all day. I feel like I don't want support Sarah.

I think it was very rude. She could at least apologize, she didn't even do that.

It's hard not to feel bad for these folks after they took time off work to meet their hero, but when your hero is a failed vice presidential candidate and former governor of Alaska who resigned halfway through her first term in office, you shouldn't really be surprised when she ditches you in the cold for something better.

Midday Open Thread

Fri Nov 20, 2009 at 12:00:04 PM PST

  • Tenants are still "Lost in the Shuffle" when the foreclosure notices arrive.
  • Facts are stupid things department: Testifying as an expert on the stimulus Thursday, Dick Armey admitted before the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee that he not only had not read the piece of the stimulus bill being discussed, but that he had actually not read any of the bill:

    Ironically, as part of an effort to obstruct and derail the bill, Armey launched an online petition called “ReadTheStimulus.org.” In another bit of irony, although he postures as a fierce ideological opponent of the stimulus, Armey actually worked as a lobbyist to help businesses gain from the stimulus. According to disclosures, he was paid to lobby on behalf of Cape Wind Associates and the Medicines Company on the stimulus. His son, Scott Armey, who runs his own lobbying shop, has also worked with businesses to gain stimulus funds.

  • With only 46 days to go in 2009, there's talk of what to name the '00s decade, just as there was in 2000, when one the best suggestions turned out to to be the most prescient, the Decade of the Ut-Ohs.
  • The official (U3) unemployment rates for the 50 states:


    Click for larger version

  • The rich aren't like you and me department:

    Having inoculated its employees with H1N1 vaccine dosages usurped from pregnant women and children, Goldman Sachs has increased its vigilance against the contagious virus by banning employee contact with spare change.

    An internal memo outlines steps staff should take to avoid becoming ill, starting with the eradication of the potentially infected currency that may have lodged itself under the seats of their automobiles. The hazardous materials are being collected and sent to Small Business for disposal.

    The memo also advised employees to “resist the urge to open your own car door; let your driver do it.”

  • Some elected officials, including Barack Obama, think the half-century-old ban on travel to Cuba ought to be lifted. A House bill to that effect has 178 co-sponsors and one in the Senate has 33. But don't pack your bags yet.
  • The White House Project's just-published study, Benchmarking Women's Leadership, found that women hold only 18% of leadership positions across the 10 sectors examined: politics, business, law, sports, academia, journalism, religion, film/TV, nonprofit, and military.
  • No support from Sen. Arlen Specter for any troop increase to Afghanistan.

    "We ought not to add troops to Afghanistan, I even question staying there, unless it is indispensible to our fight against al-Qaeda," said Specter on a conference call. "Staying in Afghanistan really requires a reliable ally in the government, which we do not have in [Afghan president Hamid] Karzai."

  • Evgeny Morozov looks at a very interesting experiment in Social media and social memory.
  • William Greider asks the obvious question: Why Not Tax Wall Street?.

Wyden 'free choice' proposal added to Senate bill

Fri Nov 20, 2009 at 11:42:27 AM PST

Update (1:11PM): It turns out that Wyden's legislation has not been folded into the actual legislation yet -- it still must attract 60 votes to be included. However, both Reid and Baucus have endorsed it.

Original post:

Mike Lillis of TWI:

Reid, Baucus Approve Wyden’s ‘Free Choice’ Proposal

Senate Democratic leaders have amended their newly released health reform bill to include a contentious provision allowing some workers to receive cash vouchers toward exchange coverage in lieu of enrolling in employer-based plans.

Wyden's office describes the proposal thusly (emphasis added):

Under the Senate legislation as it is currently written, Americans with employer-provided coverage, whose income is below 400 percent of the federal poverty level and whose premiums are between 8 and 9.8 percent of their total income will be exempt from having to purchase health coverage but will not be able to access the exchange to qualify for government assistance to purchase insurance.  The agreed to amendment will make it possible for these individuals to convert their tax-free employer health subsidies into vouchers that they can use to choose a health insurance plan in the new health insurance exchanges.  The Congressional Budget Office estimates a previous version of this provision will expand coverage to more than a million Americans.

Given that only about one million people will be impacted, this isn't a radical policy shift, but it does represent an important first step in opening health insurance exchanges to more Americans and creating more health insurance options for the public.

Perhaps more importantly, it's an example of the kinds of things that legislators will need to continue doing once health care reform is passed. Although the health reform bills do establish a framework for reform -- with both insurance exchanges and a public option in addition to subsidies and new insurance regulations -- the bills don't go as far as they should. But because they do put a framework for progress in place, they can be continually improved, allowing us to whittle away at the problems in our system with pieces of legislation like Wyden's.

The Fox, the bow-gate poll, and the crickets

Fri Nov 20, 2009 at 11:10:03 AM PST

So Fox conducts a poll on whether or not Americans approve of President Obama's bow while meeting the Emperor of Japan. Given that they attacked President Obama mercilessly over the bow on Monday, it's likely they wanted to excoriate him once again, this time using poll results showing how much America hated the bow.

But there's a problem for Fox: it turns out their very own poll shows Americans don't have a problem with bow-gate. Indeed, 67% said they think it is appropriate for the American president "to bow to a foreign leader if that is the country's custom" and only 26% felt it was "never appropriate for the president to bow to another leader."

Perhaps the most notable thing is not just that Fox failed to manufacture outrage over bow-gate, it's that as I can tell, Fox never put their poll on the air. I've searched through their transcripts and watched much of their coverage since the poll was released in a PDF on their website, seen by approximately 5 people from their target audience of conservatives.

Perhaps Fox should change their slogan: we report and you decide, but only if it's something that we think will make you hate President Obama.

AZ-Sen: Will There Be A New Maverick In Town?

Fri Nov 20, 2009 at 10:20:03 AM PST

Don't Arizonans know that he's a war hero?

Senator John McCain’s future in the U.S. Senate may be a little less assured than previously thought.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely 2010 Republican Primary voters in Arizona finds the longtime incumbent in a virtual tie with potential challenger J.D. Hayworth. McCain earns 45% of the vote, while Hayworth picks up 43%.

Former Minuteman leader Chris Simcox gets four percent (4%) support, while two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate and seven percent (7%) are undecided.

It should be fun to watch McCain embrace his inner-teabagger in the coming months. Of course the burning question is, will Palin come down and campaign for him?

Race tracker wiki: AZ-Sen

The Public Option Opt-Out

Fri Nov 20, 2009 at 09:30:03 AM PST

The good news on the Senate version of the public option is (beyond the fact that there is one included in the bill, making conference that much easier) that it uses the essential components of the HELP version of the public option, with a few minor changes. The core of the public option remains pretty decent, with a single national plan set up and run by the Secretary of HHS, who has the authority to negotiate reimbursement rates with providers. Not as good as Medicare +5, but could be worse.

The bad news, of course, comes with the opt-out provision of the bill, which makes the public option less than national. When first proposed, the idea was that states would automatically be included, and would have to take action to opt-out sometime after implementation of the program. Unfortunately, that's not how it worked out in the actual language [Sec. 1323, part (a)(3)]

(3)STATE OPT OUT.—
(A) IN GENERAL.—A State may elect to prohibit Exchanges in such State from offering a community health insurance option if such State enacts a law to provide for such prohibition.
(B) TERMINATION OF OPT OUT.—A State may repeal a law described in subparagraph (A) and provide for the offering of such an option through the Exchange.

There's no requirement of a waiting period before states can opt out, which in this political environment means the battle is taken directly to the states, because insurers will have until 2014 to get state legislatures to pass those laws. That could lead to as much as a third of country being left out, according to CBO estimates [pdf] (h/t Jon Walker).

CBO’s analysis took into account the probability that some states would opt not to allow the public plan to be offered to their residents. Rather than trying to judge which states might opt out, CBO applied a probability recognizing that public opinion is divided regarding the desirability of a public plan and that some states might have difficulty enacting legislation to opt out. Overall, CBO’s assessment was that about two-thirds of the population would be expected to have a public plan available in their state.

You know who the third is going to be--those who need it the most. Check out this map from the most recent Census data, via TWI's Mike Lillis.

uninsured map
(Click on image to enlarge.)

In Texas, for example, the uninsured rate in 2008 was the highest in the nation at 24.1 percent, while just 4.1 percent of Massachusetts residents lacked health coverage, representing the country’s lowest rate, the Census data revealed.

There’s nothing new or unusual about these distinctions. States have their own laws, and some have simply put greater emphasis on getting health coverage for residents. What’s interesting in the context of the insurance reforms working their way through Congress is how the highest uninsured rates are largely concentrated in the South and the Mountain West, where the lawmakers tend to be more conservative — and more likely to oppose the Democrats’ health reform plans.

Changing the opt-out date is an amendment waiting to happen when this bill hits the Senate floor (probably) early next week, and a barring a fix there, a priority for conferees when we finally get to that point.


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On Mothertalkers:

If I Were An Inventor...

Public Universities Looking for Out-Of-State Students

Midday Open Thread

Child Predator or Police Entrapment?

Friday Morning Open Thread

On Street Prophets:

Coffee Hour:  Taking a break in the busyness

Indians 101: Pocahontas

I'll Die Another Day

Happy Hour!

Coffee Hour – Thanking Yourself

On Congress Matters:

Today in Congress

House & Senate wrap-up

Open Thread: Nothing on the Schedule Edition [This Weekend]

H.R. 3961 - The "doc fix" bill

Today in Congress