Yeah, I know...I made a big deal Monday night about how I'd be out until Thursday because of a little trip to the surgeon. But, heck, how was I to know that every campaign in America would get polled on Tuesday and Wednesday?!

So, bandaged and bruised, I came back a day early. And, from the looks of the data, I came back in time to see Democrats getting off of the mat a little bit.

A day of polls with more than a little silver lining amid the clouds of suck. That's worth coming back a day early from medical leave...

THE U.S. SENATE

CA-Sen: CNN/Time poll puts Boxer up four in key Golden State battle
CNN and Time Magazine, through their polling partners at Opinion Research, are back for the 2010 cycle, as it relates to individual contests. They open up their polling with three big states (California, Florida, and Kentucky). In the Golden State, incumbent Democrat Barbara Boxer leads Carly Fiorina by four points (48-44). Recent polls had shown Fiorina inching into the lead.

FL-Sen: CNN/Time says tossup; teabaggers hound 3rd party candidate
The CNN/Time pollsters also hit the Sunshine State, and they see a pretty pure toss-up between Republican nominee Marco Rubio and GOPer-turned-Indie candidate Charlie Crist. Rubio has the narrow edge, with 36% of the vote. Charlie Crist is right on his heels (34%), while CNN/Time puts Democrat Kendrick Meek at one of his best points of the year, earning 24% of the vote.

The closeness of the race might be the impetus for a new crusade by the local teabaggers. The baggers, who have long been in love with Rubio, are trying to push Libertarian candidate Alex Snitker out of the race. Snitker, for the moment, is holding his ground, saying that true constitutional conservatives would be supporting him, rather than Rubio.

KY-Sen: Pair of new polls confirm closeness of Senate battle
Rand Paul might not be running away with it, after all. A pair of new polls out today indicate that Democrat Jack Conway is within the margin of error against Paul. An Anzalone Liszt poll showed a three-point race, with Rand Paul up three points (48-45) over Conway. Some might easily dismiss it as a Democratic pollster, but then CNN/Time followed up today with a poll showing a dead-even race. The CNN/Time poll had Conway and Paul all knotted up at 46% of the vote. Rasmussen, as you'll see below, begs to differ (no doubt shocking political observers everywhere in the process).

WA-Sen: Democratic poll gives Murray a five-point edge
In another of a wave of Democratic internal polls this week (which is quite a reversal from the cycle-to-date), a new poll from FM3 (Franklin Maslin Maul and Metz, but it's easier to say FM3) shows incumbent Patty Murray up five points on Republican Dino Rossi in the closely watched Senate race in Washington. The poll had Murray up 50-45 over Rossi. The poll was conducted on behalf of the DSCC, the campaign wing of Senate Democrats.

THE U.S. HOUSE

FL-24: GOP pollster claims double digit deficit for Kosmas
If a new Public Opinion Strategies poll out of central Florida is to be believed, freshman Democrat Suzanne Kosmas goes into the heat of the general election cycle down by a dozen points to Republican nominee Sandy Adams. The poll by POS puts Adams up 49-37 over Kosmas, who defeated Tom Feeney rather easily in 2008. The poll claims that both President Obama (38/58) and Speaker Pelosi (30/64) have horrid numbers in the district, which could explain Kosmas' apparent dilemma.

IL-10: New Anzalone Liszt poll gives Dems good shot at a pickup
Illinois' 10th district has, throughout this cycle, always felt like that one GOP-held seat that seemed destined to flip to the Democrats. A new Anzalone-Liszt poll on behalf of Democratic nominee Dan Seals seems to confirm that supposition. The poll has Seals leading Republican nominee Bob Dold by thirteen points (49-36). The poll is an internal poll, but even right-wing pollsters We Ask America have given Seals the lead in this swing district thus far.

IL-17: GOP pollster says Hare trails in nominally Democratic district
Speaking of the right-wing polling crew at We Ask America, they have elected to poll the usually Democratic 17th district. Their results are similar to other GOP internals in the district, which seem to insist that this district is, indeed, competitive in this cycle. W.A.A. gives Republican Bobby Schilling a narrow lead (41-38) over Democratic incumbent Phil Hare. Green Party candidate Roger Davis takes 4% of the vote.

KS-04: Internal poll says Dem upset possible, with or without Hartman
It is probably high time for everyone to put this race on the radar screens, despite being an open seat in a district with a considerable GOP tilt. An acrimonious GOP primary, plus a stronger-than-average Democratic nominee, seems to have put this Wichita-based district in play. A slightly dusty internal poll from Democrat Raj Goyle's campaign (courtesy of Gerstein-Agne Strategic Communications) from mid-August gave Republican Mike Pompeo a mere three-point edge (50-47). What's more, the withdrawal of Libertarian candidate David Moffett, for health reasons may well throw the race into total upheaval. One of the candidates that Pompeo defeated for the GOP nomination, wealthy businessman Wink Hartman, will announce in the next couple of days whether or not he will seek the nod of the Libertarian Party to run on their line. Hartman and the Libertarians met together yesterday to discuss such a bid.

MS-01: Dem internal poll puts Childers ahead in tough district
This internal poll might be one of the more pleasant surprises of the week, as it shows a Democratic lead in a district that a lot of pundits probably would have left for dead a month ago. The poll, from Anzalone Liszt, gives Democrat Travis Childers a narrow edge over Republican Alan Nunnelee (46-41). Childers won a special election in June of 2008 in a district that went heavily for both George W. Bush and John McCain.

NY-25: Palin endorsement lauded...by the Democrat in the race
We've already seen this during the cycle up in New Hampshire (where Democrat Paul Hodes had great fun with Kelly Ayotte), but another Democrat is hyping a Republican candidate's endorsement by Sarah Palin. Freshman Democrat Dan Maffei has cut an ad where he points out that Republican Ann Marie Buerkle has been endorsed by Sarah Palin. In a district that was won by Gore, Kerry, and Obama, Buerkle's connectivity with Palin is not likely to be much of an advantage in the general election.

NC-08: Even Republicans concede Kissell up front in key race
Kind of a curious release here--the campaign for Republican nominee Harold Johnson has released an internal poll by Public Opinion Strategies. The curious thing about this GOP internal poll is that it shows the Republican candidate trailing his Democratic rival. The POS poll puts Kissell at 39%, with Johnson trailing at 34%. One of the quintet of DCCC polls released yesterday showed Kissell up double digits on Johnson (48-36).

PA-04: Dem internal claims massive lead for Altmire
One district that apparently the Democrats don't have to worry about defending is the swing 4th district in Western Pennsylvania. At least, that's the case if a new internal poll on behalf of second-term Rep. Jason Altmire is to be believed. The Anzalone Liszt poll shows Altmire with a two-to-one edge over Republican Keith Rothfus (51-24). Rothfus scored what was generally considered to be an upset win over NRCC fave Mary Beth Buchanan in May's GOP primary.

WA-08: SUSA claims double-digit lead for Reichert
SurveyUSA continues its brutal outlook for Dems, putting a potential pickup well into the GOP column in a new poll out of suburban Seattle. Perpetually vulnerable Republican Dave Reichert has a thirteen-point lead over Microsoft executive Suzan DelBene, according to SUSA (54-41). Reichert scored narrow wins over Darcy Burner in both 2006 and 2008, and has never won the district by more than six points.

WV-01: Even GOP internal concedes Dem lead in key open seat
Perhaps in response to an internal poll by Democrat Mike Oliverio (one which showed him up 16 points), the campaign for Republican David McKinley rushed out their own internal poll. While the poll shows Oliverio out in front, the margin is quite a bit smaller. The poll, by Public Opinion Strategies, puts Oliverio up five points (41-36) on McKinley.

THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES

CA-Gov: Whitman up by two, according to CNN/Time poll
Despite outspending her rival by literally a hundred million dollars, Meg Whitman can still manage no better than a coin flip with Democratic nominee Jerry Brown. The CNN/Time poll shows Whitman sitting on 48% of the vote, with Brown just behind her at 46% of the vote. Whitman's television presence has been constant in the state for seven months, while Brown just took to the air for the first time this week.

CO-Gov: GOP suit tries to knock Tancredo off of the ballot
A lawsuit, filed by two Republicans (not affiliated with the state party, however), is seeking to prevent Tom Tancredo from appearing on the ballot as a member of the American Constitution Party. Their case is built on the fact that Tancredo was a registered Republican until July, which they argue violates Colorado state law. Republicans have issues of their own, as their nominee, Dan Maes, was outraised 8-to-1 by Democrat John Hickenlooper in August, and is facing further fines for campaign finance reporting failures. Tancredo also outraised the GOP nominee.

FL-Gov: Sink up seven over Scott, according to CNN/Time poll
CNN/Time also took a look at the competitive gubernatorial race in Florida, and finds that Democrat Alex Sink is sitting on a seven-point advantage over Republican Rick Scott. Sink leads Scott 49-42, according to the poll, among the first polls conducted after the withdrawal of Independent candidate Bud Chiles from the race.

ME-Gov: PPP poll confirms rising red tide in normally blue Maine
This might be the suckiest poll of the day, and it comes as a bit of a surprise. For months, only Rasmussen has polled the Maine Governor's race, and they (true to form) have been bullish on the Republican in the race, Paul LePage. Today, PPP heads down East, and they find numbers that are even worse for the Democrats than anything Rasmussen has ever offered. PPP gives LePage a double-digit lead (43-29) over Democrat Libby Mitchell. Independent Elliot Cutler, who seems to be drawing more from Mitchell than from LePage, was holding down 11% of the vote.

MA-Gov: Patrick leading, but only modestly, over Baker
A new KRC/Communications Research poll in Massachusetts, conducted for the Statehouse News Service, gives Deval Patrick a lead of six points over Republican Charlie Baker in his bid for re-election. Patrick is at 34% of the vote, with Baker at 28% and Democrat-turned-Independent Tim Cahill showing some renewed strength at 18% of the vote (his support had dropped steadily throughout the year). Patrick is still being saved, however, by split opposition, as his approval numbers are fairly woeful (only 33% of voters think he is doing an "excellent" or "above average" job).

MI-Gov: Snyder dominant, according to Mitchell Communications poll
With the caveat that this pollster has been abnormally bullish on Republican candidates quite often, the new numbers from Mitchell Communications in the state of Michigan are just flat out ugly. The new poll gives Republican Rick Snyder a two-to-one edge over Democrat Virg Bernero (53-26). The Republican leads women by eighteen points, and Independents by an almost unreal 41 points.

TX-Gov: Third poll confirms toss-up in the Lone Star State
In addition to the pair of polls cited by Markos earlier today, we have a third poll providing confirmation that Democrat Bill White is very much within striking distance of Republican incumbent Rick Perry. The poll, conducted by John Zogby for a private client, shows Perry up by just three points over White (44-41). The poll apparently was a traditional one, not one of the largely lampooned "Interactive" polls Zogby did in previous cycles.

WI-Gov: Doyle clears warchest, with bulk of cash aiding Barrett
Let this set the example for recalcitrant House Dems with locks on their warchests: Wisconsin's Democratic Governor, Jim Doyle, is emptying out much of his remaining warchest to try to aid state Democrats this Fall. The retiring state executive is donating $1 million to the Greater Wisconsin Committee, a Democratic outfit primarily interested in the open-seat gubernatorial race between Democrat Tom Barrett and a Republican to be named later (Sept. 14). The committee has already run ads dinging both of the Republicans who could eventually challenge Barrett: Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker and former Congressman Mark Neumann.

THE RAS-A-POLL-OOZA

While the polling picture for Democrats pepped up quite a bit elsewhere, the House of Ras held steady, and true to form. Kentucky will probably attract the most eyeballs (as they match SUSA with a fifteen-point spread), but the numbers from Arizona in the wake of Jan Brewer's debate meltdown are perhaps even harder to believe. If she is really up 22 after that debacle, I have lost faith in an entire state, I'm sorry to say...

AZ-Gov: Gov. Jan Brewer (R) 60%, Terry Goddard (D) 38%
CA-Gov: Meg Whitman (R) 48%, Jerry Brown (D) 45%
CA-Sen: Carly Fiorina (R) 48%, Barbara Boxer (D) 47%
DE-Sen: Mike Castle (R) 48%, Chris Coons (D) 37%
DE-Sen: Chris Coons (D) 47%, Christine O'Donnell (R) 36%
KY-Sen: Rand Paul (R) 54%, Jack Conway (D) 39%

Write the diary!

While Steve Singiser's outstanding roundup highlights news of many races in this election cycle, it is you - the Daily Kos community - who can be on the ground to provide the insight and information to help our candidates at every level. The Election Diary Rescue is back, and now we need you to write those diaries!

(Tonight's compilation and more after the jump............)

This Rescue Diary covers the period from 6 PM, Tuesday, 9/7 to 6:00 PM EDT, Wednesday, 9/8

Today's Menu Includes :
30 Diaries Overall

- 7 On House races

- With 7 covering individual Districts in 7 states

- 12 On Senate races

- Representing 8 different states

- 6 On Various election races and ballot issues

- Encompassing Governor, Secretary of State, Local, and more

- 5 General election-related diaries

And be sure to follow the Election Diary Rescue on Twitter

For the second consecutive night (click here for yesterday's Snapshot), Democrats have improved their position in the Senate Snapshot.

In the Snapshot that includes all polls, the most likely outcome remains Democrats at 51 seats. However, the chance of a GOP takeover in the Senate has dropped to 8.8% (from 10.4%). Also, the odds of Democrats winning 52 or more seats (38.5%) is now far more likely than the odds of Democrats winning 50 or fewer seats (30.3%). Yesterday, the likelihood of those two outcomes was roughly equal.

In the Snapshot that does not include Rasmussen polling, Democrats have gained one seat to reach 52. Winning 56 or more seats--which would be a remarkable result in the current political environment--has even reappeared as a possibility. Even if it is only a 1 in 200 chance, it is still possible.

While two days may not constitute make a genuine trend, given how poorly the last year has gone, I will take it. Hopefully, there will be many more days of improving poll numbers on the way.

Senate Snapshot, September 8th
(With Rasmussen)

(Without Rasmussen)

Notes
--This is a snapshot, not a forecast. All of the odds presented here are based on if the election were held today. It is not a prediction of future trends.

--If a campaign isn't listed here, then it is not currently as close as any of the campaigns listed here (at least it isn't as close in the snapshot that includes Rasmussen polling, which is the "official" snapshot).

--A * indicates that the candidate has a primary challenger, but is the favorite to win the nomination.

--All polls used in the averages are taken from Pollster.com.

--A complete description of the methodology behind this snapshot, along with all the research and a FAQ, can be found here.

On the heels of President Obama's fiery Labor Day speech, here's a couple of stories worth noting.

First, HuffPost's Sam Stein published an interview with David Axelrod on White House political strategy through the elections. In the article, Axelrod goes on full blast, firing away at GOP extremism, saying that they'd be worse than Bush.

"I saw that [Alaska GOP Senate candidate] Joe Miller said that he would abolish Social Security if he had the chance and he is not alone," said chief adviser David Axelrod. "This is akin to what [Nevada GOP Senate candidate] Sharron Angle has said in Nevada and also a number of these other Republicans. So, this could go one step beyond the policies of the Bush administration to something more extreme than we have seen."

According to Axelrod, one of the central communications challenges faced by Democrats and the administration over the final weeks of the campaign is to make sure that the link between Bush and the GOP is seared into voters' minds.

"Perhaps this is where we have been failing to communicate," said Axelrod. "[A] large number of people [don't] believe that a Republican Congress would go back to the policies of George W. Bush, even though their own leaders have said as much in public. Pete Sessions said we want to go back to the same exact agenda that was there before this president took office. So our job in the next eight weeks is to make sure that people understand that, that they understand the stakes."

In his Labor Day speech, President Obama made that argument as forcefully as anybody has yet so far this campaign. As Axelrod says, it's essential to keep up the intensity in making that argument to make sure persuadable voters understand that this election is a choice between Democrats trying to fix the mess of the Bush years and Republicans who would go back to the same policies that ruined the economy the last time they were behind the wheel.

The second story worth noting is a new David Plouffe video posted by Organizing for America. In the video, Plouffe outlines OFA's grassroots organizing strategy for the campaign's stretch run. His key point comes around the three minute mark of the video, which was e-mailed to OFA's full list:

You're only out there talking to people that we think are either a prime persuasion target -- that we can convince them to vote and they are undecided -- or Democrats right now who are saying they are not likely to vote. And that's what we really need to focus on. And our data is really clear on this: What is the most likely reason someone who says they are not likely to vote decides to vote? It's because one of you talks to them.

When you combine the administration's new policy initiatives (including President Obama's continued opposition to Bush's tax cuts for the wealthy) with Axelrod's messaging and Plouffe's organizing strategy, you're starting to see the Democratic campaign fire on all cylinders for the first time this cycle. (Unlike Republicans, they've actually had to govern.)

There's no question that most recent snapshots of the race shows Democrats are in trouble. But don't forget, at this point in 2008, John McCain was leading Barack Obama. That was obviously a different situation and the underlying trends favored Obama, but the point is that snapshots change. And while it would be a remarkable comeback, we're seeing a strategy that just might work.

And, of course, the Wall Street Journal is more than happy to publish their screed:

Health insurers say they plan to raise premiums for some Americans as a direct result of the health overhaul in coming weeks, complicating Democrats' efforts to trumpet their signature achievement before the midterm elections.

Aetna Inc., some BlueCross BlueShield plans and other smaller carriers have asked for premium increases of between 1% and 9% to pay for extra benefits required under the law, according to filings with state regulators.

These and other insurers say Congress's landmark refashioning of U.S. health coverage, which passed in March after a brutal fight, is causing them to pass on more costs to consumers than Democrats predicted.

Right. Because they certainly wouldn't have been jacking up premiums if insurance reform had never happened. Because the last thing insurance companies do is exploit their captive market to maximize profits. The White House responds:

We knew this would happen, which is why the President called on insurance companies not to use the Affordable Care Act as an excuse to implement unreasonable premium increases. In fact, when one insurance company in the State of Washington was called out for telling its beneficiaries that rate increases were due to the Affordable Care Act, that company agreed to issue a new letter clarifying the reasons for the increase.

The premium increases discussed today – many of which were planned before the Affordable Care Act was even signed into law– demonstrate that reform came at a critical time.  In fact, consumers have faced unreasonable double digit premium increases for more than a decade, including employer-sponsored plans where premiums have more than doubled since 2000. 

The most recent round of premium increase announcements are at odds with a number of health care cost related projections. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that medical inflation is currently projected to be 3.2 percent this year.  Similarly, The Kaiser Family Foundationconcluded that family premiums were rising only 3 percent for this year.  Finally, we estimate that any potential premium impact from the new consumer protections and increased quality provisions under the Affordable Care Act will be minimal – no more than 1-2 percent -- which will be further offset by other out of pocket savings implemented in the law.

I don't think there's a soul who paid any attention to this process who didn't know this would happen, which is one of the reasons the seat the insurers had at the negotiation table was problematic to so many. That the insurers were operating in good faith was more than many could swallow, and now that suspicion is justified. They were going to raise premiums regardless, because that's what they do. This way they get to raise premiums and get to blame it the law they tried so hard to kill.

So I wonder how Reid is doing on securing that promised public option vote?

AP:

LAS VEGAS (AP) -- MGM Resorts International Chief Executive Officer Jim Murren says Sharron Angle's election to the U.S. Senate would hurt Nevada's already struggling economy.

Murren said Tuesday that Angle's comment that the company's CityCenter development injured other businesses in Nevada was disappointing and perplexing. He questions how a U.S. Senate candidate could have such a "poor" understanding of business and economics.

Murren is a Republican who supports Democratic Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid.

You may recall that earlier in the campaign, Angle criticized Reid for helping the CityCenter project, a move that saved thousands of jobs. She also pledged to not help create jobs in Nevada if she's elected to the U.S. Senate.

People ask me, what are you going to do to develop jobs in your state? Well that's not my job as a U.S. Senator.

Angle's strange view on job creation -- that it's not a Senator's responsibility to be an advocate for their state's economy -- is a perfect example of why she won't ever have the honor of serving Nevada in the U.S. Senate. Don't take my word for it -- just listen to Republicans like Jim Murren.

It's been quite amusing watching the Paul campaign try to handle the fallout from its staffer who got caught posing as a progressive on Daily Kos to dampen enthusiasm for Jack Conway's moneybomb yesterday.

This morning, Paul-ville released what they believed to have been exculpatory evidence: a comment submitted to their website by someone using the name of the concern troll staffer.

The Paul campaign discovered this when the same person appears to have submitted this ludicrous comment through their website's online form:

Your Name Tom Kubica
Email Tom@randpaul2010.com
Subject Replacement
Category Social Networking
Message I was discovered and banned at DailyKos. I suggest we immediately pull in all of our covert operatives. I'll need someone to replace me at Daily Kos as well.

The IP address associated with the comment, 38.97.124.170, locates the poster in Framingham, Mass. The real Kubica -- who goes, Howard said, by Thomas, not Tom -- is based in Bowling Green.

Of course, anybody could have submitted that comment (including Kubica himself, using IP spoofing or masking techniques), but Paul-ville argued it was proof that the concern troll must have been somebody from outside the campaign and that it cleared their campaign of any involvement. A Paul spokesman insisted to Huffington Post that it proved they were the victim.

"This phony," wrote Paul aide Gary Howard in an e-mail to the Huffington Post on Wednesday morning. "The person is not our intern, someone used our intern's info from his LinkedIn page to pose as him on Kos and post stuff. He even sent us an email through our website email form pretending to get 'caught' working for us."

Uh, yeah...that's real strong proof. Except, as I pointed out above, the web form submission tells us nothing. Anyone could have submitted that note. Moreover, Howard's assertion about somebody having used Kubica's LinkedIn page makes no sense -- Kubica's LinkedIn page had nothing to do with how we identified the user as Kubica. (However, it did lead us to connect him with the Rand Paul campaign.)

Here's the story in brief: we determined Kubica's identity because he registered at Daily Kos using the same e-mail address that he used to author an online petition. From there, we found his LinkedIn page, on which he stated his role with the Rand Paul campaign. We then verified his employment status with Paul's campaign.

And here's the longer version: the registration e-mail was pnkrck15@cox.net. We verified the authenticity of the address at the time of registration. In April, an online petition was posted using that e-mail address using the handle "TomKBert," and TomKbert is the handle Thomas Kubica uses on gmail. Moreover, Thomas Kubica was one of the 29 people who signed the petition on the same day it was created. (Those 29 people signed the petition within a span of 6 hours.) Just in case that doesn't make it clear, the petition called for a redesign of the Campaign for Liberty website (dubbed 'C4L' in the petition) -- and Kubica (including in his alternate handle of tkubic46) frequently touts Campaign for Liberty and 'C4L' (for example, here and here).

Despite this clear trail of evidence, the Paul campaign is standing by Kubica. I suppose that's their right -- Kubica didn't violate any laws, he just violated our community standards, and as a result was outed. And who knows? Maybe this will give his career in conservative politics a boost. After all, Karl Rove didn't exactly have a clean track record as a young political operative, and look where it got him.

As a final thought: remember that the concern troll's goal was to dampen enthusiasm for Jack Conway. The best way to get revenge: contribute to Conway's campaign.

Update: Shhh, keep this one quiet, don't let anybody know, but there's a new poll from CNN out today...and it shows the race all tied up at 46 each!

Public Policy Polling. 9/2-6. Likely voters. MoE 4.2% (no trendlines)

The race is confounding the major trends we're seeing in most contests across the country. White is winning independents 53-34. Republicans have the lead with them most everywhere else. White's winning 82% of Democrats while Perry's getting 77% of Republicans. Republican voters are more unified than Democrats most everywhere else. But there are a lot more GOP voters than Dems in Texas so Perry's still ahead anyway.

At 50% a majority of Texans disapprove of the job Perry's doing with only 39% giving him good marks. Democrats dislike him (85%) a whole lot more than Republicans like him (63%) and independents split against him by a 25/64 margin.

This comes in the heels of a poll (PDF) by a Republican outfit which had Perry up by just 42-41.

I don't need to explain how big taking the Texas governorship would be, particularly in this climate. It would be a narrative buster, and some much needed evidence that Texas' demographic changes are leading to the long-predicted leftward drift of the state.

Teabaggers are doing everything they can to hand the Delaware Senate seat to the Democrats this year.

The Tea Party Express says it’s only begun to fight in Delaware’s Republican Senate primary – and is promising a flurry of ads, direct mail, a pair of rallies and even a radiothon on behalf of underdog Christine O’Donnell over the coming days.

Despite aggressive push-back from the state party and a fresh poll calling into question her general election viability, the same national tea party group that helped propel candidates in Nevada and Alaska reiterated its commitment to O’Donnell on Tuesday, noting it has only spent a quarter of the resources it plans to deploy on her behalf.

The Republican front-runner, Rep. Mike Castle, would be the favorite in the general election. And after seeing Lisa Murkowski go down in Alaska, he's not taking the primary for granted.

Rep. Mike Castle (R-DE) and the Tea Party Express purchased more air time last night for what's shaping up to be a nasty run up to next Tuesday's primary.

Castle bought another 1,000 gross ratings points in the Salisbury, MD, market, which covers southern DE, according to a Dem source who monitors ad buying. That cost him $75K.

The Tea Party Express, which is doing the bidding of Christine O'Donnell (R), purchased 427 gross ratings points on cable only in the Salisbury market. That cost them $32K.

Both ad buys start today and run through primary day next Tuesday.

The ad buy brings Castle's total spent on the air in the primary to about $250K. Hotline On Call reported last week that Castle purchased about $180K of air time.

Meanwhile, the GOP establishment is freaked out about the potential primary upset, and has employed the Wall Street Journal to beat the shit out of O'Donnell.

A two-time loser statewide, Ms. O'Donnell has a history of financial troubles and recently told the Weekly Standard her home and office were vandalized, though she hadn't reported it to police. She recently accused a conservative local talk radio host that he had been "paid off" by Mr. Castle's supporters after he asked her tough questions.

So GOP primary voters must decide if they want to vote for Mr. Castle, a moderate who would help Republicans organize the Senate and who opposed ObamaCare but who will give them heartburn on some issue in the future. Or they can vote their heart even if it means giving up a Senate seat.

The odds are with Mike Castle, but they were also with Lisa Murkowski in Alaska. The GOP establishment won't get caught off guard in Delaware, but whether their increased vigilance is enough to stave off the latest teabagger revolt will be ultimately determined next Tuesday.

Root hard for O'Donnell.

Roll Call is reporting that Lisa Murkowski is considering a write-in campaign [sub. req.] and could announce a decision as soon as tomorrow.

Running as a write-in candidate appears to be Murkowski’s last remaining option. The Senate Republican Conference Vice Chairwoman met with Libertarian Party nominee David Haase on Tuesday to discuss taking his spot on the ballot, but according to a party spokesman, even if Haase dropped out, the party’s executive board — which last week voted against allowing Murkowski on the ballot — does not appear amenable to changing its decision.

Should Murkowski pull the trigger on a write-in campaign, GOP sources say she would face opposition from the National Republican Senatorial Committee. The NRSC endorsed Joe Miller immediately after Murkowski conceded the primary, and the GOP committee intends to stick with the Fairbanks attorney and provide him with the full weight of its backing.

Given how Miller handled the whole post-primary, pre-Murkowski concession period, in which he repeatedly attacked Cornyn and the NRSC as "national types" interfering in his race, it'll be interesting to see just how deep into this Cornyn is going to be willing to go for Miller.

The last Senate candidate to win a write-in campaign was Strom Thurmond in 1954. A handful of House candidates have won write-in campaigns, but it would be a tough route to victory and a lot of really motivated Murkowski voters.

Rand Paul's last celebrated Paulite moneybomb brought in about $260,000. The campaign of Democrat Jack Conway aimed to beat that number in their own effort yesterday. They did so, and comfortably so: over $300,000 was raised yesterday, and the money continues to pour in.

Here at Daily Kos, almost 1,300 of you responded and gave nearly $50,000 to Conway and the rest of our Orange to Blue roster this cycle. For a year in which excitement has been hard to generate, this was a moment of big optimism.

There are more reasons to feel motivated to fight --

Rather than capitulate, Obama has decided to oppose the extension of tax cuts for the richest Americans. Its a much needed populist position for progressives who wanted Democrats to be Democrats in the run-up to this election.

Gallup's outlier generic congressional ballot poll (the one with the GOP +10) has been supplanted by a new one showing a 46-46 tie. Democrats still face a challenging environment, but heading into this contest tied (or slightly behind) gives us room to improve. Being down 10 would be disastrous.

Individual state-by-state races show that we remain competitive in challenging territory. The DCCC's poll dump yesterday was designed, in large part, to show that the sky hadn't fallen. Yes, we'll suffer big losses, but if the GOP isn't running away with, say, AL-02 against a freshman Democrat in a district that McCain won 63-36, then perhaps Speaker John Boehner isn't a done deal yet.

Back to Kentucky, we still have a real race:

Ophthalmologist Rand Paul (R) and state Attorney General Jack Conway (D) are in a statistical tie in the Kentucky Senate race, according to a new survey conducted by a Democratic pollster.

Paul takes 48 percent to 45 percent for Conway in the poll, which was conducted for the Kentucky Leadership Council by John Anzalone.

The poll shows voters are concerned about Paul's public statements, including one in which he appeared to dismiss the state's problems with drugs. Neaely six in ten voters (59 percent) agreed that Paul "says things that bother and concern me."

PPP will be going into the field in Kentucky in the next couple of days, and we'll have fresh numbers for you early next week. Needless to say, we can win this.

And here's the bottom line -- despite what's happening in Alaska and Delaware, there's an uneasy truce (more like a cold war) between the old GOP establishment and the teabagging crowd. The establishment hates that the teabaggers have already cost them easy victories in Nevada, Kentucky, and Alaska, but they appreciate the activist energy, which they hope proves a net plus.

But if the GOP comes up short, and fails to take either chamber of Congress, it will be considered a crushing defeat for the bad guys. And then, that cold, simmering war will become an active one -- with the GOP elders noting (rightly) that their candidates would've done away with Harry Reid and other Democrats, and the teabaggers arguing that Republicans failed because they weren't conservative enough.

That's a show that none of us should want to miss, and should provide plenty of motivation to GOTV this fall. Things are tough, but the game ain't over yet. In fact, we've got plenty of time to fight and fight hard.

As always, giving to our Orange to Blue candidates is a great place to start. And then see what you can do for your local Democrats. This year, without exception, there's a competitive race reasonably close to you.

• The last US soldier to officially die in the Iraq War.

  ​Brandon E. Maggart's wife Teresa was planning to welcome her soldier husband home to Missouri this month with a banner that said "Husband, Father, Hero." Instead, she used the words in an obituary for the Fort Lewis Army sergeant, 24, who, it turns out, officially is the last American service member to die in Iraq combat. "We had so many plans for Brandon's leave," Teresa Maggart said in the obit she wrote, "fishing, golfing, going to [son] Blake's first soccer game, going to the ocean, Seahawks & Mariners game, and of course eating at Outback...just a few of his favorite things to do..."

  Unofficially? Our troops are still dying there.

• 9/11 widow: The media duped us on Park51.
• David Axelrod says Rahm Emanuel will "make his decision in due time" about whether to run for Mayor of Chicago -- Jed Lewison
• Two Near Earth Objects live up to their name today:

  Objects this size may strike the earth about every 30 years, but because the planet is mostly covered by water, past impacts on this scale could have easily passed by unnoticed. A 50 foot space-rock hitting at orbital velocity would deliver about ten times the energy unleashed by the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima -- DarkSyde  

• No matter how you slice it, Boehner is an idiot.
• Remember the last time that civil rights were left up to "local" control?
• I'm finding it really hard to believe that Obama would replace Rahm with a Republican. But if Obama really wants a primary challenge in 2012, that would be a great way to fuel one. I'm chalking that talk up to mindless Beltway chatter.

  Then again, never bet against a Demcorat's ability to do the idiotic in a pathetic attempt to curry conservative favor.

• And a new internet meme is born:

  Mr. Pollack,
  re:

  http://www.someguywithawebsite.com/...

  Please be aware that your comments are being monitored. Like all our readers, you are free to disagree w/ my cartoons. However, should you libel and or slander me or my newspaper publicly, we will seek legal remedy. We are also in possession of previous blog entries.

  Sincerely,
  ML

  Mike Lester
  Editorial Cartoonist
  Rome (Ga.) News Tribune
  www.mikelester.com

  The dude found a blogger's comments and archives. Brilliant detective work, wingnut cartoonist!

• Try not to act too shocked: Republicans are hypocrites.

  Yes, that's right, the NRCC is attacking a Democrat for voting the same way as the chairman of the NRCC.

• Journalist breaks big 1,000-word story ... on Twitter.

  Adam Penenberg, whose story about Glass was made famous in a book and movie, last week broke the story of a $131 million verdict against Ford Motor Co., stemming from the death of minor league baseball player Brian Cole who died in 2001 when the Ford Explorer he was in flipped over, according to the news site Gather.

  Noticing that traditional news outlets were completely ignoring the story, Penenberg turned to Twitter to get the news out. He posted more than 50 tweets in two hours, creating a complete story of more than 1,000 words, explained High Position, an Internet marketing site. One of his posts even chastised journalists for their negligence: "C’mon reporters. Am I only one who thinks $131 MILLION verdict against FORD in a product liability suit is news??"

Another shining example of the mindset of today's Republican Party -- today's entry from Jim Renacci, the challenger in Ohio's 16th District, with his deep thoughts on civil rights:

ROBERT THOMPSON: What is your position in regards to addressing those concerns. And again, I’m concerned about the civil rights and the diversity of your campaign in terms of why anybody of color should be in support of you as a congressman.

RENACCI: [...] A lot of the problems you’re talking about are local issues. And I’m also a firm believer that the federal government and our Constitution was based on freedom, and was based on the freedoms that our number one goal of our military is freedom. We need to get our federal government out of the way and we need to allow our local governments to become more involved in many of the issues you’re talking about. I don’t believe these are federal issues to come down. I believe the federal government’s number one goal is to protect our freedoms. So the answer to your question is I believe a lot of things need to come back to the local level, and I believe things like you’re talking about do need to go back to the local level. And they need to be looked at in the cities. I was a mayor of my community. I think those are important ways of looking at all that. It’s not the federal government’s job.

Ah, the good old days of state's rights, fire hoses, and separate drinking fountains. How we pine for them.

Poor Dan Maes. One little lie about having been an undercover agent for the Kansas Bureau of Investigation exposed, and you lose all support. Now it's not just Colorado Republicans, but the Republican Governors Association, too.

Gov. Haley Barbour, chairman of the Republican Governors Association, had no kind words for his party's nominee for governor in Colorado Dan Maes. TPM has been chronicling Maes' problems  over the last few weeks following his false claims he was a spy. Among his setbacks are the continued third-party candidacy of former Rep. Tom Tancredo (R) and Senate nominee Ken Buck (R) rescinding his endorsement.

Will the RGA stand by Maes with financial support?

"We have put some money in Colorado," Barbour told reporters during a breakfast hosted by the Christian Science Monitor.

He added firmly, "We have put some money in Colorado. Past tense."

At least his Dem opponent, John Hickenlooper, is being charitable and giving him a chance to prove himself. The campaigns have agreed to a bizarre debate schedule of 9 debates in the next eight weeks. It'll be up to the individual debate sponsors to determine if Tom Tancredo is included.

Did Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour dip his toes into birther waters?

A reporter followed up to ask Barbour for his opinion as to why so many Americans (wrongly) think Obama is a Muslim.

"I don't know why people think what they think," Barbour said. He paused and then added, "This is a president that you know less about than any other president in history."

According to Barbour, we know "plenty" about Ronald Reagan, and we know that George Washington chopped down a cherry tree (really?), although there was no word on what Barbour knows about George Bush's missing Texas Air National Guard years ... about Obama, not so much. Apparently Barbour skipped reading Obama's two autobiographies and the massive record of his public life.

But Barbour wasn't really questioning the President's birthplace because when:

Reporters asked if Barbour believes Obama was born in the United States. "As far as I know," he said. He added that, "I don't have any such question."

Of course not.

On the bright side, Barbour accepts "totally at face value" that Obama is a Christian. Whew.

BP is out today with it's own tell-all account of the Deepwater Horizon disaster:

WASHINGTON — The oil giant BP said Wednesday in its internal report that a series of failures involving a number of companies ultimately led to the huge oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico.

“No single factor caused the Macondo well tragedy,” BP said in a statement about the report. “Rather, a sequence of failures involving a number of different parties led to the explosion and fire which killed 11 people and caused widespread pollution in the Gulf of Mexico earlier this year.”

BP's report was prepared by a team of about 50 people, most of them BP employees. More than anything else, its goal appears to have been pointing the finger towards contractors, like Transocean, for culpability. BP's intention is not so much to get them off the hook in the court of public opinion, but rather to strengthen their case before a court of law.

As if to prove that fact, Transocean is already pushing back:

This is a self-serving report that attempts to conceal the critical factor that set the stage for the Macondo incident: BP’s fatally flawed well design. In both its design and construction, BP made a series of cost-saving decisions that increased risk — in some cases, severely.

So now we've got two of the biggest oil companies in the world pointing fingers at each other for causing the biggest oil spill in American history. And their doing it for their lawyers.

I guess the good news is that it is yet another reminder that what we really need to do is eliminate our dependence on oil, right?