Q has a poll out that does a Clinton/Trump 42/44 head-to-head:
Q poll
Interesting to compare the demographic basis with the turnout from 2012:
Q Poll: Men 51.3 Women 48.7 White 84 Black 11 Latino/Asian 5
2012 Exit Poll: Men 48 Women 52 White 79 (34 College 45 No College) Black 15 Latino/Asian 6
2016 Demographic Projection (if turnout is about same as 2012): White 77.5 (College 36 No college 41.5) Black 15.5 Latino/Asian 7
Moral of the story is head-to-heads this far out are nothing to freak out about.
Trump will turn out his no-college white base but will also turn out the Obama coalition if HRC by herself won’t.