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Fri Nov 08, 2013 at 05:56 AM PST

Blowout Jobs Report: +204k

by SilverOz

The BLS released the employment situation summary for October today and it was a blowout report all around.  The headline number showed (seasonally adjusted) job creation of 204k (with 212k private sector jobs), with the unadjusted number showing a gain of 940k jobs.  The other (and possibly more important) positive information out of this report were the significant upward revisions to the job data from August and September, with August up to +238k (from +193k) and September up to +163k (from +148k).  Gains were strong in manufacturing (+19k) as well, which is very good news.

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The BLS just released the jobs report for June 2013 and it beat expectations and included significant upward revisions to prior months.  The Establishment Survey showed a total increase of 195,000 jobs for June (+202,000 private payrolls) and an additional +70,000 added to the April and May reports (making them much better than initially reported).  The unemployment rate (which comes from a different survey) stayed at 7.6%, which was a result of an increase in the labor force and slightly smaller job creation numbers in that survey.  Overall, the report was very positive and with continued reports in a similar range, the unemployment rate will go down and the economy will see some accelerated growth (+200k/month jobs does not equate to a <2% GDP rate).

The Obama economy is really doing much better than most seem to want to give credit for.  While we all long for the days of 80s/90s job creation, that may not be realistic with our aging population and increasing productivity gains.  When measuring since 2000 though, Obama already owns the #1 and #3 years for private sector job creation and this year would put him on pace to have #1, #2, and #4.  

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Today's job report (BLS) should stick a fork in all the doomer hyperbole that seems to have a death grip over logic here recently.  The report (and especially the revisions) show an economy that is fairly strong (compared to the last 13 years) and definitely not near a decline.  The overall number was only +165k, but watch that get revised up substantially, as almost every single number has over the past 3 years.  The March revision (just the first one) went from that weak 88k up to 138k and February's final revision went up to 332k from 268k.  

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The BLS released the October Employment Situation today and it showed a gain of 151,000 jobs (with 159,000 being private sector gains).  The unemployment rate *U-3) was unchanged at 9.6% and the U-6 rate was at 17% (17.1% last month).  The participation rate dropped slightly to 64.5% (not good) and the employment population rate dropped to 58.3% (also not good).  The labor force itself fell by 250,000 (again, very bad) and those not in the labor force, but still want a job increased by 50k last month as well.  The much maligned birth/death adjustment added 61,000 jobs last month.  Overall, this was another weak report for this point in a "recovery" and although the Establishment Survey shows a gain of about 1.1 million jobs since the low and the Household Survey shows a gain of approximately 2 million jobs since the low, these simply aren't enough to offset the massive losses we experienced during the downturn or to absorb hypothetical new entrants to the labor force.

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The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) today released the Employment Situation Report for August 2010.  This report showed a loss of (54,000) in the Establishment Survey (the survey of businesses), with a gain of 60,000 ex-census.  Private sector employment increased by 67,000 for the month (and 763,000 for the year). The Household Survey (the survey of 60,000 households) showed a gain of 290,000 jobs, which lead to an unemployment rate (U-3) of 9.6%% and the more inclusive measure of unemployment (U-6) remained at 16.7%.  The labor force grew by 550,000 (a good thing even if it pressures the unemployment rate) and the participation rate was 64.7%.  Revisions to previous months took June to (175,000, and improvement of 46,000) , and July to (54,000, and improvement of 77,000).  The employment-population ration was reported at 58.5, which is still at very low levels.

Also, the birth/death adjustment came in at +115,000 this month.

The unadjusted numbers were +70,000 for the Establishment Survey and (215,000) for the Household Survey.

The report can be found here.

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The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) today released the Employment Situation Report for July 2010.  This report showed a loss of 131,000 in the Establishment Survey (the survey of businesses), with a gain of 12,000 ex-census.  Private sector employment increased by 71,000 for the month. The Household Survey (the survey of 60,000 households) showed a loss of 159,000, which lead to an unemployment rate (U-3) of 9.5% and the more inclusive measure of unemployment (U-6) remained at 16.5%.  The labor force shrank by 181,000 (not a good thing during a "recovery") and the participation rate was 64.6%.  Revisions to previous months took June to (221,000) a downward revision of almost 100,000, May was virtually unchanged at a gain of 432,000.  The employment-population ration was reported at 58.4, which is still at very low levels.

The jobs report can be found here.

Also, the birth/death adjustemt came in at +6,000 this month.

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The Employment Situation Report was just released and it showed a loss of 125,000 in the Establishment Survey and a 301,000 loss in the Household Survey.  The Household Survey also showed that the U-3 unemployment rate came in at 9.5% and the U-6 rate came in at 16.5%.  The number of private sector jobs gained for June was 83,000 (census firing caused a large part of the headline decline to the tune of 225,000 jobs).  This report also highlighted that 652,000 left the labor force, which affected the unemployment rate (ie made it smaller) as the denominator.  The decline in the labor force is an ominous sign for the future.  The revisions for April and May showed that they gained 23,000 and 2,000 additional jobs respectively.  Overall, this report was mixed, but leaning towards bad, as to sustain a recovery we need much better numbers than what we got.

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The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released today the May 2010 Employment Situation Report and it showed (even sans census) a horrible report for the month.  The headline Establishment Survey jobs number was 431,000 (20,000 ex-census) and the Household Survey showed a LOSS of 35,000.  The unemployment rate came in at 9.7% and the labor force SHRUNK by 322,000 (which is why the rate went down).

UPDATE:  This is a very interesting jobs report, as U-6 fell by .5% and those not in the labor force, but want a job also fell.  The unadjusted numbers are also worth noting, as the Establishment Srvey showed a gain of 1,090,000, while the Household Survey showed a gain of only 195,000 (obviously May has a fairly large negative adjustment, which was completely normal).  

It does appear that the jobs gains have taken a step back, at least for a month.

Update 2: The much maligned birth/death adjustment for May was 215,000 jobs.  Do with this as you choose.

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The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the April Employment Situation Report today, which showed an Establishment Survey gain of 290,000 jobs, of which 66,000 were census hires.  The Household Survey showed a gain of 550,000 jobs and a U-3 unemployment rate of 9.9%, which increased .2% from last month.  The more inclusive U-6 unemployment rate (which includes discouraged workers and those working part-time for economic reasons) came in at 17.1% for an increase of .2%.  Overall, this was another encouraging report that showed the economy is still slowly recovering from the collapse we saw in 2008/09 and coupled with the recent Q1 2010 GDP gain of 3.2% we will likely continue to see job gains for at least a few more months.

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The Bureau of Economic Analysis released Q1 2010 GDP today and it showed another increase of 3.2%.  This follows on the heels of the Q4 2009 GDP increase of 5.6% and a Q3 2009 GDP increase of 2.2%.  This number virtually guarantees that not only has the recession ended (likely to be dated to sometime in Q3 2009 when all is said and done), but that we are going to start seeing some substantial job growth numbers in the months ahead that will build on last month's gain of 162,000 jobs.

How about some recs to highlight what may help keep the Democrats in power and mitigate losses in the 2010 elections.

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The National Bureau of Economic Research has announced that it

The committee announced Monday that it cannot yet declare an end to the recession that began in December 2007.

So, does this mean that the recession many have said has ended really hasn't?

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Sun Mar 28, 2010 at 04:13 AM PDT

A Real Economic Recovery vs Today

by SilverOz

I am going to examine (graphically) the recovery follow the early 80's recession(s).  Specifically, I am going to look at the recovery following the very deep 7/81-11/82 recession that saw unemployment peak at 10.8% and had a major decline in GDP (like our current recession).  I am also going to show a comparison of where we are now (compared to where we were then) using the St. Louis Fed's assumption that the recession ended in July 2009 (meaning 7 months from the end).  Finally, I am going to demonstrate why we had a very robust recovery following the end of the 1981 recession and why we are unlikely to have a robust recovery this time.  

This is a repost from Friday when it scrolled off very quickly.

This is also crossposted at Bonddad's Blog

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