Update2: Paint Virginia Blue!!! We've Won Virginia!

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Tuesday November 06, 2012 · 5:09 PM PST

2012/11/06 · 17:09

Romney is not getting anywhere close his numbers in the Richmond suburbs. There just aren't enough voters elsewhere to fix that shortcoming.

You read it here first, Virginia's 13 electoral votes will go to Obama and he will be re-elected.

He needs to win Chesterfield CO by +25k to break even statewide. Obama won absentees in Chesterfield in 2008 and likely will again.

Obama is down 8K with 97% of precincts reporting.

This signals that the Romney ground game is weak. With several campaign offices in this county he should be crushing it. His margins elsewhere also make it clear this is an Obama win by 3-5%.

Update 1- 9:20 PM - Stephanie Cutter just confirmed exactly what I am seeing to Rachel Maddow. She clearly thinks Virginia is going blue.

Update 2- 9:39 PM - Chesterfield is all in and Romney only won it by 13K! He needed to double that to be in tie territory. AT A MINIMUM! His goose is cooked.

I Voted - Open Thread

Twodaiquiris

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Tuesday November 06, 2012 · 6:38 AM PST

2012/11/06 · 06:38

If you voted, share your story here. What were the lines like where you voted? Were you exit polled?

I voted in Virginia and the lines were similar to 2008. I also got exit polled. They were only talking to men of paler pigmentation. I probably broke their talking points about how white evangelical males don't like Obama. Sorry, Wolf! :)

Don't forget to tell team blue that you banked your vote so they can focus GOTV resources.

http://www.barackobama.com/...

Below are some dance moves for tonight if you are still able to celebrate after a long day of GOTV.

Poll

27 votes Show Results

The lines at your precinct were . . .

27 votes Vote Now!

The lines at your precinct were . . .

Longer than 2008.

8 votes

Shorter than 2008.

3 votes

About the same as 2008.

8 votes

I'm in line reading this now.

0 votes

Voted early.

8 votes

O 50.9 R 47.6 - Final Virginia Projection

Twodaiquiris

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Monday November 05, 2012 · 1:23 PM PST

2012/11/05 · 13:23

My final predictions for all Virginia localities are below the fold. I use registration data, partisan trends over time, and demographic data to generate these projections. I am using data for the last four presidential elections to model the general partisan gravity of each locality.

I have also projected the margins in the event that the election were an exact tie. Feel free to use the tie margins as quick reference sheet for poll watching tomorrow night. Some things to note:

1) Third party vote will be 1.5%. Gary Johnson will narrowly outperform Virgil Goode, but Virgil Goode will reach the 3 - 5% range in his old Congressional district.

2) President Obama and Tim Kaine will join Mark Warner in Virginia's 2 million vote club. Mitt Romney and George Allen will not break 2 million. [ I don't worry about projecting for Kaine, because he will outperform Obama for many reasons--one being that the Mason & Dixon line, though it has sloughed down towards Lynchburg, still exists as a cultural delimiter].

3) Obama's worst negative margins should be in Hanover and Chesterfield counties, which should drive him a combined 40,000+ votes in the hole. Romney actually needs to do better than +50K in those two localities in order to win Virginia. Either that, or he'll need to find a lot of new voter in VA Beach and NOVA. Fairfax County will go to Obama by over 100,000 votes . . . again. Fairfax CO vote usually comes in last, so don't freak out if Obama is down until all the Fairfax absentees have been reported.

4) Romney should flip a few localities that McCain lost: Staunton City, King & Queen County, Buckingham County. Obama may be able to flip Fluvanna County, which has a large population of people who commute to work in Albemarle County and Charlottesville. None of these are big prizes, though. More importantly, Loudon County will not swing back to red.

5) The worst negative margin change from 2008 for Obama will be Virginia Beach. He could lose that by 15,000 more than he did in 2008 and still win comfortably statewide. His most positive margin changes will be in Arlington County and Richmond, where new voters and a stickier partisan lean will keep team blue strong.

6) Obama will win absentees by over 100,000 votes. He beat McCain in this area by about 125,000.

Twodaiquiris

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Monday October 29, 2012 · 1:08 PM PDT

2012/10/29 · 13:08

With nine days left until the election George W. Bush has in insurmountable lead over the weak, prevaricating, enviro-nut and earth-tone clad automaton from Tennessee, Vice President Al Gore. Or such was the message at the time from the villagers on TV and in print and the polling fit the meme. A cadre a polling from 12 years ago today is below the orange navel-lint. All of it shows a dire forecast for the guy who got the most votes that year. (Notice the Likely/Registered voter gap in the Newsweek poll. Look familiar.)

As hurricane Sandy's spin over Washington briefly pauses the media spin in broadcast studios and news rooms, let's not forget how damaging these memes can be. The media explained away the great disenfranchisement of millions in 2000. They painted Gore as hapless candidate who tried desperately to appeal to women and appear alpha-male simultaneously, who waxed hyperbolic about his accomplishments when he had few. Anything that countered that meme was met with "La La La, I can't hear you!!!"

Imagine how things might have played out in November 2000 if the truth was told. This was a close election all along.

But since everyone agreed that George W. Bush was winning in every way, the media thought that throwing out election day and just seeing who Clarence Thomas and Antonin Scalia thought should run the country was a great idea. Now, just years later, they sit across tables from people who nearly ruined our nation--the Dan Senors and Ed Gillespies who cheered us into massive debt--and they just blink in accommodation as these same imps use the debt they ran up to bludgeon the POTUS who has reduced the budget deficit already by over 300 billion dollars . . .

Twelve years later, one thing is very clear to anyone who is paying attention. This should be shouted from the rooftops now in case any shenanigans occur on election day:

Obama is Winning!
Obama is Winning!
Obama is Winning!
Obama is Winning!
Obama is Winning!

So after we cleanup the mess from Sandy and everyone is safe, let's make sure we don't have the disaster of a Romney presidency before we have even finished cleaning up after George.

Twodaiquiris

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Friday October 26, 2012 · 11:24 AM PDT

2012/10/26 · 11:24

Everyone is familiar with the old adage, "Hindsight is 20/20." Well, apparently this isn't true if you are Gallup.

In a new article, laughably entitled, 2012 U.S. Electorate Looks Like 2008, the provide us with their hilarious breakdown of the expected 2012 electorate and their even more hilarious numbers for past elections in 2004 and 2008.

The problem is that their numbers are out of whack with exit data from the 2004 and 2008 elections and data from the non-partisan Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers University. I think this explains a lot of the Gallup polling we are seeing.

Data beneath the Orange Nuée Ardante du Kos.

Twodaiquiris

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Thursday October 25, 2012 · 3:22 PM PDT

2012/10/25 · 15:22

Today's projection sees a bit of a boost from some new polling, with TPM and Pollster showing Obama with an average lead of 1.25%. This produces a 3%, 117,388 vote win for Obama when partisan trends in localities, and changes in voter registration are considered.

Full projections for all 135 Virginia localities are below the orange mini-baguette. Please peruse the numbers.

Let me address some questions from earlier projection diaries.

1) Third party voting: this should be a bit elevated this year when compared to 2008, but not the large factor that seemed possible initially according to PPP. The election is too close and the contrast between the main candidates too stark for many people to vote third party. If someone out there has time to put together a Super Pac for Virgil Goode, that might be helpful. He should get close to 3% percent of the vote in his old congressional district, VA-5, but he won't be a statewide factor unless the margin is painfully thin--a few thousand votes.

2) Despite a lot of Republican overconfidence, Obama is still way ahead in absentee ballots. These are going to be Obama's votes by a 3:2 margin. Right now my projection has Obama with a 56,361 votes lead in absentee votes. However, his lead in 2008 was probably larger at this time by about 17,000 votes. The difference is largely due to fewer absentees being cast and a very slight uptick overall in absentees in Republican areas. I can think of a dozen explanations for this, so I don't read too much into it.

3) Yard sign advantage. I don't have hard numbers on this, but everyone from Chuck Todd to Mark Warner (and many Virginia denizens on this site) has brought up the fact that Romney seems to have a lot of signs. I have noticed that the advantage, if there is one, melts away when you get off the main roads. Also. I don't think this is a particular sign of strength. If yard signs could vote or do GOTV Terry Kilgore would have crushed Tim Kaine is the 2006 Gubenatorial race. The opposite happened. I'll take the money spent on ground operations over a few more signs on the roads any day.

Twodaiquiris

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Wednesday October 24, 2012 · 4:36 PM PDT

2012/10/24 · 16:36

Below is my second attempt at modeling the upcoming vote in Virginia.

My results are a narrow Obama victory based on the current polling aggregations, changes in registrations by locality, and the partisan trends by locality over time. The difference in the election right now is the fact that most new voters are in localities whose voting history is favorable to the President. Even if we allocate those votes conservatively it puts significant wind in the sails of the President's chances.

I have Obama winning by 68,381, or 1.68%, by garnering 50.10% of the vote cast. As before, if you have a toe on the ground in any of these localities, then I'd be interested in how the model matches your expectations of where things are.

Since 2008 was a high water mark, Obama margins over Romney will be lower than his margins over McCain in most places. Based on trends from the 4 prior presidential elections, I think the biggest shifts in the number of voters moving from Obama to Romney will be in these locations:

1) Virginia Beach
2) Chesterfield County
3) Chesapeake City
4) Fairfax County
5) Hanover County
6) Loudon County

This is in part because that is where the votes are. Obama will crush in Fairfax, but not by 2008 margins. He should hold Loudon, but it could be a nailbiter. Romney needs to flip Chesapeake City and run up margins in Va Beach, Chesterfield and Hanover. Those are probably the 6 best locations to watch for a sense of what is happening when the returns start rolling in.

Based on the final margin between him and his opponent, Obama should be even stronger in Richmond, Charlottesville, Alexandria, Petersburg, Hampton, and Williamsburg than he was in 2008. He will win smaller percentages of the vote in these localities, but they all have more voters than before and few are persuadable to the Republican side. Gary Johnson may harvest a few with libertarian leanings.

Twodaiquiris

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Tuesday October 23, 2012 · 3:31 PM PDT

2012/10/23 · 15:31

Below you will find my projections for the November 6th election for all 135 Virginia localities. This is based on current polling averages vs. historical outcomes and trends, but unlike the polling it is based on this model looks at voter registrations and where they are centered. See this diary for why the polls might be understating Obama's advantage slightly.

Currently, I am projecting:

4,065,467 votes on November 6th in Virginia
2,081,138 votes for Barack Obama, or 51.19%.
1,917,599 votes for Mitt Romney, or 47.17%
And third party candidates receiving 1.64% of the vote.

Absentee data seems to be closely mirroring 2008. As more polling and other data comes in, I will use it to update this model. All data is below the fold and I have included 2008 Obama margins so you can compare and contrast. If you are familiar with any of these localities and think my projection is off, please let me know as I'd like to refine this as we get closer to election day. I will update the projection as we go.

Twodaiquiris

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Tuesday October 23, 2012 · 8:13 AM PDT

2012/10/23 · 08:13

How is this not disqualifying? Why won't our press even mention this? This is not the first time he has made this mistake.

As the Guardian points out, this is the 5th time at least that he has made this error.

In March, Romney made the exact gaffe at AIPAC conference.
"Maybe one of the few bright spots in the Middle East developments in the last year has been the rising of the people in Syria against Assad. Obviously, as you know, Syria is Iran's only Arab ally in the region. Syria is the route that allows Iran to supply Hezbollah with weapons in Lebanon. Syria is Iran's route to the sea," he said, according to the Washington Post, which fact-checked his remarks back then.

The US presidential candidate has also previously repeated the reference including in a CNN presidential primary debate in Arizona in February. "Syria is their key ally. It's their only ally in the Arab world. It is also their route to the sea," he said at the time.

Poll

40 votes Show Results

Did Romney pass the CIC test last night?

40 votes Vote Now!

Did Romney pass the CIC test last night?

36 votes

Yes

4 votes

Obama is Winning Virginia and the Pundits are Clueless

Twodaiquiris

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Tuesday October 16, 2012 · 5:27 PM PDT

2012/10/16 · 17:27

Mitt Romney is in serious trouble in Virginia and he doesn't even realize it. He is like a hound dog barking up a tree where the game, "small varmints if you will", has already been gone for a hour. I am not going to tell you that the polls are skewed. Polls have margins of error. If I see a poll that has Obama at 49 and Romney at 49 with a 4% margin of error, then I can rightfully make the claim that the poll says Obama may be up 53-45. But that's pure silliness. Let's look at some math that isn't a "bunch of stuff" but the product of a 4 year build up by the Obama campaign: voter registrations.

Yesterday was the deadline for registration in Virginia. As the final registration numbers are getting tallied, we can see that women make up a disproportionate percentage of this year's Virginia electorate.

* 2,924,019 registered voters in Virginia are female - or 54% of voters
* 1,140,146 registered voters are women 40 and under - or 21% of voters
* 2,122,152 registered voters are 40 and under - or 39% of voters

Women turn out at higher rates than men AND there are more female voters to begin with this year. If you see a poll sampling men and women equally in Virginia, just shout Malarkey and move on with your day. Join me under Wonder Woman's golden-orange lasso of truth for more numbers.

Twodaiquiris

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Saturday October 13, 2012 · 4:22 PM PDT

2012/10/13 · 16:22

Virginia voter registration numbers do not get a lot of attention because we don't have by-party registration. Therefore, you can never tell who is winning the registration battle. I have looked inside the numbers reported by the VA SBE to date--through September 30th--and think I see some obvious reasons to think we are winning handily on this front. With new registrations favorable to President Obama, and the addition of former Republican Congressman Virgil Goode to the ballot, it is going to be very hard for Romney to win Virginia's 13 electoral votes on Nov. 6th.

Step below the orange arabesque to get a peek at the numbers.

Twodaiquiris

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Saturday September 29, 2012 · 6:00 AM PDT

2012/09/29 · 06:00

Like Virginia Beach, Chesterfield County is a large Virginia locality that President Obama is very likely to lose. Any Republican campaign with hopes of beating Obama needs to run up the score here. The key for the Obama campaign is managing that margin as well as he did in 2008:

Win/Loss Vote Margins in Chesterfield County Presidential Races

Clinton '96 -26,430
Gore '00 -31,286
Kerry '04 -34,399
Obama '08 -12,103

Win/Loss Margins in Chesterfield in Other Close Senate Races
Webb Senate '06 -18,962
Robb Senate '00 -28,188

On election night in 2008, I felt comfortable in telling friends that Virginia had gone blue at around 7:45 PM by looking at the precinct by precinct margins in Chesterfield County. One reason was that Jim Webb won Virginia in 2006 by 10,000 votes in a much lower turnout year. Webb lost this locality by 18,962 votes, so the fact that Obama was able to hold McCain to a mere 12,103 advantage here is a glaring development which may have implications for the future of Virginia politics.

I suspect people are not as familiar with Chesterfield County as Virginia Beach, so let me give you some context as why this is such a critical battleground within the battleground . . .

Newer
Older

RSS

Update2: Paint Virginia Blue!!! We've Won Virginia!

I Voted - Open Thread

O 50.9 R 47.6 - Final Virginia Projection

Bush is Winning!!!

Gallup's Vision of the Electorate: Blurry even in Hindsight

Virginia Election Projection 10/25 - Obama 50.7 Romney 47.8

Virginia Election Projection 10/24 - Obama by 1.68%

Virginia Election Projection by Locality - Obama Wins by 4.02%

Iran's Actual Routes to the Sea

Obama is Winning Virginia and the Pundits are Clueless

Great News! New Registrations in Virginia Favor Dems!

Battleground VA - Chesterfield County Edition