The Arizona Secretary of state just updated its website with results for AZ-02
Ron Barber (D) only trails McSally by 81 votes now! But the road ahead looks uncertain.
Choice Polling Place Early Ballots Provisional Ballots Total Percent
MCSALLY, MARTHA 45,595 74,022 0 119,617 49.93%
BARBER, RON 36,689 82,847 0 119,536 49.89%
Here's how things stack up:
Barber is making up votes due to Pima county early ballots being counted late. (ok something seems so WRONG about that, huh? a -FIFO- LIFO queue?)
Per the Tucson Weekly: http://www.tucsonweekly.com/... In Pima County
As of Nov. 8,[I assume AM] there are 67,000 ballots remaining to be counted ...
..by the end of the day Thursday, Nov. 8, Elections staff anticipates they will have processed more than 21,000 of those remaining early ballots. The remainder will be counted in the coming days.
So 21,000 Ballots were processed today in Pima County, and Barber gained about 500 votes over McSally from this.
Of the 67000 remaining, per the Tucson Weekly, there are 25,000 provisional ballots. (Therefore 42000 are early ballots)
42000 - 21000 = 21000 remaining Early Ballots after counting on Thursday.
So there are 21000 Early Ballots and 25000 provisionals (46000 total) left to be counted as of Thurs Night.
If 90% of the provisionals count (92 percent were counted in the primary a few months ago) Then reduce this by 10% of 25000 =46000 - 2500 or about 43500 ballots
then if the trends continue, Barber will gain an additional 1000 to 1100 vote margin in Pima county.
Sadly.. Many votes in Cochise county remain to be counted. http://www.svherald.com/...
Again from the Tucson Weekly: (As of Thursday afternoon)
In Cochise County, where McSally beat Barber by a significant margin, there are 12,504 uncounted early ballots and 1,828 provisional ballots yet to be verified, according to the Arizona Secretary of State.
If 1500 provisionals are counted, that is about 14,000 total.
I previously estimated 20% McSally margin in Cochise.. WRONG. The cochise election site has breakdown votes. http://www.cochise.az.gov/...
As of 8 PM Thursday evening with about 32,600 votes counted:
~12,500 - Early Cochise ballots voted AZ-02 as of Thursday night
12.7% Margin McSally votes over Barber in these early ballots
~20,100 - Polling place ballots total counted
27.5 % - Margin McSally votes over Barber polling place
If the Early Vote margin continues, then she will gain 1600 votes in Cochise (12% of 14k = 1600)
So the math predicts a race which will end up with about a 500- 600 vote McSally lead -
I hope my math is wrong... And of course current margins will not necessarily hold, and there may be some slop with say, early ballots duplicates of polling place ballots, and undervotes.
Provisionals typically are considered to lean Dem. Anyway Early votes should be counted by Friday evening or so, but Provisionals could take quite a bit longer... As in another week.
In the meantime this one should be a nail biter. And a reminder not to be complacent as I was about Barber's chances.