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The Barber Campaign just released a memo - via the tucson weekly
Confirming my previous prediction

Campaign manager Jessica Floyd details the following reasons for believing they will win

1. The trend is clear: every day, Barber's lead grows. (Barber has gained over 1700 vote margin since the election)
2.  Ballot count
   a) Counting is Complete In Cochise County (McSally stronghold)
    b) Only Ballots remaining are Provisional ballots in Pima County (which historically favor Democrats)
3. Desperate Measures from the GOP show they think they are losing

in the AZ-08 special election of June 2012, Barber won provisional ballots with 59.75 percent, while he won the overall vote in Pima County by 53.5 percent....

Campaigns that are confident of winning do not go to court and ask judges to stop votes from being counted. This attempt to cherry-pick which votes get counted and which do not shows that McSally and her backers in Washington and Phoenix are desperate, and that they expect McSally to lose once all the votes are counted.


Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 07:03 AM PST


by biscobosco

This morning I woke to delicious news:

Cochise County, where Republican Congressional District 2 candidate Martha McSally made her strongest showing, finished counting its last votes Wednesday.

But when the totals were posted, McSally still trailed incumbent Democrat Ron Barber by 654 votes.

However the AZ Daily Star says:
With more than 25,000 provisional ballots remaining in Pima County, however, the race is still too close to call.
Too close? hahahahaha. Without a miracle, not too close..  But simply on track with previous predictions

I now am 99% sure that (unless there is some kind of catastrophe, like the Pima County elections office catching fire.) Barber will win. Why? Barber Leads by 12% in provisionals counted in Pima, and by 7.5% in Early Ballots.  He should win by about 1500 votes when all is counted.
follow me after the curly orange symbol of reality-based math...

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I have been closely watching  the razor-thin margins in the tossup AZ-02 race.. Hoping that my district will send Ron Barber to Congress.

The Tuesday 11/12 end-of-day totals at the AZ SOS website report Barber is up 512 votes, with 269,707 votes counted after Cochise and Pima counties both reported for the day..

Background: Pima County is the largest reliably Democratic county in Arizona and 60-65% of CD-2 votes are in Pima. 100% of Cochise is in CD-2 - This county is quite Republican-leaning and though it is much smaller than Pima (less than 50k votes expected this year to Pima County's expected 370k+) It is heavily Republican, (Romney holds a 24 point lead here).

Tonight, The Tucson Weekly, who has been issuing frequent web updates on the AZ-02 race reports:

there are still about 2,000 early ballots left to count in Cochise County, which was McSally's stronghold. There are also somewhere around 2,000 provisional ballots, but it's unclear how many of those will end up being counted.

Meanwhile, Pima County still has roughly 4,000 early ballots (which have trended toward Barber) and about 27,000 provisional ballots. Those provisionals are the real X-factor in this race, since there's no good model as to how provisional voters behave (especially in a case where some of those provisional ballots were the result of a computer glitch that left names off their regular spots on the voter rolls at polling places). If they behave like early voters, it will be good for Barber; if they behave like day-of-election voters, it will be good for McSally.

Good math predicts Barber will  consolidate his lead as provisionals are counted, finishing with a lead of  1200+ votes.

You heard it here first!  Venture past the orange scroll of mysterious mathematical symbolism for some arcane 5th-grade level (non-Rovian) mathematical analysis of the type that eludes Republicans...

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The Arizona Secretary of state just updated its website with results for AZ-02
Ron Barber (D) only trails McSally by 81 votes now! But the road ahead looks uncertain.

Choice                Polling Place     Early Ballots     Provisional Ballots    Total      Percent
MCSALLY, MARTHA    45,595           74,022          0             119,617    49.93%
BARBER, RON           36,689           82,847          0             119,536    49.89%
Here's how things stack up:
Barber is making up votes due to Pima county early ballots being counted late. (ok something seems so WRONG about that, huh? a -FIFO- LIFO queue?)

Per the Tucson Weekly: In Pima County

As of Nov. 8,[I assume AM] there are 67,000 ballots remaining to be counted ... the end of the day Thursday, Nov. 8, Elections staff anticipates they will have processed more than 21,000 of those remaining early ballots. The remainder will be counted in the coming days.

So 21,000 Ballots were processed today in Pima County, and Barber gained about  500 votes over McSally from this.

Of the 67000 remaining, per the Tucson Weekly, there are 25,000 provisional ballots. (Therefore 42000 are early ballots)

42000 - 21000 = 21000  remaining Early Ballots after counting on Thursday.

So there are 21000 Early Ballots and 25000 provisionals (46000 total) left to be counted as of Thurs Night.

If 90% of the provisionals count (92 percent were counted in the primary a few months ago) Then reduce this by 10% of 25000 =46000 - 2500 or about 43500 ballots
then if the trends continue, Barber will gain an additional 1000 to 1100 vote margin in Pima county.

Sadly.. Many votes in Cochise county remain  to be counted.

Again from the Tucson Weekly: (As of Thursday afternoon)

In Cochise County, where McSally beat Barber by a significant margin, there are 12,504 uncounted early ballots and 1,828 provisional ballots yet to be verified, according to the Arizona Secretary of State.
If 1500 provisionals are counted, that is about 14,000 total.

I previously estimated 20% McSally margin in Cochise.. WRONG. The cochise election site has breakdown votes.
As of 8 PM Thursday evening with about 32,600 votes counted:

Calculated Margins:
~12,500 - Early Cochise ballots voted AZ-02 as of Thursday night
12.7%  Margin McSally votes over Barber in these early ballots

~20,100 - Polling place ballots total counted
27.5 % - Margin McSally votes over Barber polling place

If the Early Vote margin continues, then she will gain 1600 votes in Cochise (12% of 14k = 1600)

So the math predicts a race which will end up with about a 500- 600 vote McSally lead -

I hope my math is wrong... And of course current margins will not necessarily hold, and there may be some slop with say, early ballots duplicates of polling place ballots, and undervotes.

Provisionals typically are considered to lean Dem. Anyway Early votes should be counted by Friday evening or so, but Provisionals could take quite a bit longer... As in another week.

In the meantime this one should be a nail biter.  And a reminder not to be complacent as I was about Barber's chances.


Almost 500,000 votes statewide remain uncounted.

Some say that AZ-02 (Barber vs McSally) is a done deal with Barber down by about .5 % (1300 votes or so). (update - as of 8:45 PM 11/7 Barber is down about 400 votes)

Likewise other close state races...

It ain't over till its over. Arizona had an unprecedented number of Provisional and Early Ballots this year. Early ballots dropped off at the polling places and Provisional ballots are being counted right now- How many? The AZ star reports:

In Pima County:
At least 10,000 according to this AZ daily star article:

A more recent article indicates 80,000 or more  votes could still be counted:

According to the Tucson Weekly

There are an estimated 80,000 votes left to count in Pima County, according to Elections Director Brad Nelson.
54,000 of Pima County’s outstanding ballots are early ballots ...26,000 are provisional ballots that were cast because people arrived at their polling places but they ran into some kind of SNAFU.
How likely are those provisionals to count?
in the August primary, 92 percent of the provisional ballots were counted toward final election results
That gives somewhere around 78,000 votes still not counted in pima county.
Continue Reading

Tue Nov 06, 2012 at 10:35 PM PST

mi estado loco

by biscobosco

Arizona.. my crazy state

I sit here in my 2008 Obama Mama t-shirt, thinking how hopeful y'all must be in North Dakota about Heitkamp's chances.

How Merry in Massachusetts with Warren

Inspired in Indiana about Donnelly.

And here, despite our best efforts with a great candidate.. We are crying about Carmona...


Continue Reading

Tue Oct 16, 2012 at 11:24 PM PDT

downballot downballot downballot

by biscobosco

Down, I say! I am down with Obama! Done with Romney.

Let's give him something other than a JUST SAY NO Senate and House.
Donate Donate Donate

My picks:

Richard Carmona AZ-Sen
John Tester Montana Senate
Tammy Baldwin WI- Sen
Chris Murphy CT-Sen

In my home state
Krysten Sinema AZ-09
Ann Kirkpatrick AZ-02

House races other states
Jim Graves, MN-06
David Gill IL-13
Brad Schnieder IL-10
Joe Garcia Fl-26
Carol Shea-Porter NH-01
Louis Frankel FL-22
Patrick Murphy FL-16

Picks from comments
House race (very close) Ami Bera (D) vs Dan Lungren (Tea Party) in CA-7
House race (D is underdog, but R is evil) Wayne Powell (D) vs Eric Cantor (R) VA-7
 ( Cantor has high unfavorables, and has recently poured money into the race, so perhaps he is more vulnerable than we know)

Paul Sadler(D) vs Ted Cruz(R) (TX-Sen) (Longshot race, but Sadler is working hard)
Heidi Heitkamp (D) ND-Sen (close race)

I'm donating to all of the above act blue pages. And If you post your favorite race in comments I'll donate $10 to them too, and add them to this diary.


Tue Oct 16, 2012 at 08:44 PM PDT

Beautiful picture from Intrade

by biscobosco

Music to my eyes... or something like that
It's  trading  at 99.9% now, but I'm too lazy to take another picture.


Do you like polls?

8%5 votes
8%5 votes
5%3 votes
15%9 votes
61%35 votes

| 57 votes | Vote | Results


This diary gives 10 reasons not to see "Won't Back Down".

Here's an 11th.

It's funded and produced by Philip Anschutz' company Walden media

What is Walden Media you ask?

The company is owned by the Christian conservative Philip Anschutz, who has said he expects their movies "to be entertaining, but also to be life affirming and to carry a moral message."
What kind of moral message, you ask?

Hmm, could it be a Christian, Conservative, Right-to-life, Anti-Gay, Climate-change denier, kind of moral message?

Let's check Wikipedia to see how Philip Anschutz defines "morality."

Often identified as "Christian billionaire Phil Anschutz", he is a Republican donor who supported George W. Bush's administration. He has been an active patron of a number of religious and conservative causes.

Some Facts about Anchutz:

1. In May 2001, the Bush administration upheld Anschutz's right to drill an exploratory oil well at Weatherman Draw, in south-central Montana where Native American tribes wanted to preserve sacred rock drawings.
2. Helped fund Colorado's 1992 Amendment 2,which would overturn laws that prohibit discrimination  on the basis of sexual orientation
3. Financed and distributed films with Christian themes, such as Amazing Grace and The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe, for mass audiences through his two film production companies and ownership of much of the Regal, Edwards and United Artists theater chains.
4. In 2009 Anschutz purchased the conservative American opinion magazine The Weekly Standard from Rupert Murdoch's News Corporation
5. Philip Anschutz and fellow board members of the American Petroleum Institute in Washington are credited by Bush's energy secretary for the Oval Office decision to kill the Kyoto Protocol in 2001
6. Funded Institute for American Values, which campaigns against same-sex marriage and against single parenting.
7. Anschutz also funded the pro-charter school movie Waiting for Superman

Ah, YES the kind of morality which protects the right to discriminate against gays, desecrate sacred sites of those who hold other views, promote conservative christian views and advocate for charter schools. That kind of morality!!
Continue Reading

yep, that's right.  I heard about this poll but did not see it specifically diaried RE Arizona.  It was taken Sept 25th/26th

 A new poll commissioned by a Republican-leaning outfit, Highground Consultants has

46%     Mitt Romney, Republican
42%     Barack Obama, Democrat
3%       Gary Johnson, Libertarian
7%       Don’t know/refused
43%     Jeff Flake, Republican
40%     Richard Carmona, Democrat
4%       Marc Victor, Libertarian
1%       None
11%     Don’t know/refused
Further details and analysis here
Continue Reading

A fourth recent poll in AZ shows the senate race is tied, or is close.  This new poll conducted by Anzalone Liszt Research shows Jeff Flake only holding a slim 44-43 lead over Dr. Carmona

Dr. Carmona still has significant growth potential, while Congressman Jeff Flake has only lukewarm support.

Among Independents, Carmona is viewed favorably by 47 percent and unfavorably by 14 percent. And over the last month, Carmona's name ID has gone from 30 percent to 48 percent.

Congressman Flake, meanwhile is underwater with Independents -- 38 percent viewed him favorably and 40 percent had an unfavorable opinion.

# On Sept 11 Public Policy Polling showed Flake with a slim 44 to 43 lead
# On Sept 25 Rasmussen (which frequently leans Republican) showed Flake with a 6 point lead  
# A Republican poll published on Sept 19 showed Carmona ahead of Flakeby 5 points

My experience with Carmona after the tangerine flower...  


How many seats in the senate will we have this year?

9%8 votes
27%24 votes
41%36 votes
20%18 votes
1%1 votes
0%0 votes

| 87 votes | Vote | Results

Continue Reading

Thu Sep 06, 2012 at 11:13 PM PDT

Obama made me proud

by biscobosco

To be an American.
American Flag
This convention also made me proud to be a Democrat.


The wild-eyed right-wingers keep hammering home the idea that WE DEMOCRATS ARE NOT REAL AMERICANS. Oh, if you're black, or from Mexican descent, or Puerto Rican, or your family is from Asia or India, or God forbid Iran!! Or you are gay, or you have an abortion, or you need to be on disability, or if you don't make enough money or if you don't go to the right church.. You aren't a REAL AMERICAN.

Frankly the talk has affected me. I have gotten discouraged, started to believe it. I don't fit in at all with the "white bread" life. I was not born into a Christian household, but it was a feminist one. I have been raped.  I have had an abortion.  My rights as a woman are paramount to me. My right to self-determination.  So.. Sometimes when I hear all the hate-talk I wonder to myself if this is the right country for me.  Do I really fit in here?

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