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Fri Oct 18, 2013 at 02:38 PM PDT

Next Steps: Taking the Gun Away

by leshrac55

Like many other people here, I was, more than anything, just relieved that we were able to re-open the government and avoid economic catastrophe without Obama and the Democrats giving in to the ransom demands. While I hope that this spurs the mostly sane part of the country to elect a Democratic house next year, I want the debt ceiling and shutting down the government to be basically taken off the table entirely for ANY administration, Republican or Democrat. In other words, while the hostages were freed this time, we left the hostage-takers their guns. It's time to take those away.

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Ok, I suppose this has been the case leading up to the shutdown as well, but at least it involved actual bills being passed and sent to the Senate. On the first day of the government shutdown House Republicans decided they would not only vote on these DOA piecemeal bills (to open just tiny pieces of the government one at a time), but apparently to purposely lose that vote.

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Mon Sep 30, 2013 at 02:18 PM PDT

A New Speaker?

by leshrac55

I am increasingly pessimistic about the chances that the government won't be shut down tonight. I simply don't think that Boehner has the ability or will to control his caucus and let a "clean" CR bill pass after they've now made such a big deal out of it.

With that said, perhaps there is a slight chance that Boehner just decides to screw it and bring the Senate CR to a vote (which, like the Immigration bill, would have the votes to pass), likely giving up his Speakership in the process. Certainly at SOME point, it seems, the House will relent (as they did during the Clinton years) and Boehner will be forced to pass the CR that's on the table, perhaps again, risking his Speakership.

So given that at some point, whether before or after a shutdown, it seems that Boehner's Speakership is on the line, I began to wonder exactly what the process was for this, and if perhaps there were some very small possibility of a power play by Democrats if indeed Boehner were to be removed. So let's dive into this thought experiment, if you will.

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So, of course with all the great polls confirming over and over that OH was fairly solidly in Obama's camp, it was pretty obvious we were going to see these Republican pollsters (and there are a LOT of them) show it leaning R. This bumps OH back into tossup territory on TPM, though it should be noted that Obama still maintains more than 270 EVs in TPM's composite even without OH in Obama's column.

http://thehill.com/...

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Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 03:40 PM PDT

538 Forecast: Obama up to 74.4%

by leshrac55

I know I'm not the only one obsessed with Nate Silver's numbers each day, so I noticed he updated them today and Obama is up another tick up to 74.4%. The Nowcast is at 78.6%. Can Obama get back up to the heady days of 85%+ in the forecast? I have my doubts, but he has been inching back up ever so slowly. We'll see where he is come election day.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

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Thu Oct 25, 2012 at 01:19 PM PDT

PPP CO - O 51 - R 47

by leshrac55

Sweet poll from PPP... Up a point from last time and Obama over 50%, I like what I'm seeing.

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Mon Oct 22, 2012 at 10:42 PM PDT

PPP National tracker: R 49 - O 47

by leshrac55

Sigh.. just in time to rain on my debate parade, PPP comes out with their tracker numbers with Romney 49 - Obama 47. This covers Saturday-Monday. PPP had mentioned that Friday was a good night for Obama, Saturday good for Romney, and Sunday a dead heat, so I guess that means Romney had another good day today (as a good day for Obama dropped off).

I guess Markos's weekly poll will probably have better numbers based on his tweet yesterday... Hope this debate pushes these polls towards Obama!

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...

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Fri Oct 19, 2012 at 10:25 AM PDT

PPP NH and IA: R 49 - O 48

by leshrac55

Yes, those numbers apply to both New Hampshire and Iowa. These numbers come from their tweets.

Obviously not great numbers certainly compared to yesterday. Hopefully these are the outliers this time. PPP also said they weren't seeing the second debate as a "game changer", but if you'll recall they said the exact same thing about the first debate, which very clearly was.

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Fri Oct 19, 2012 at 10:18 AM PDT

Gallup: R 51 - O 45

by leshrac55

This is only a very slight improvement for Obama in the Gallup poll, as he is down 6 instead of 7. But, I do think this is the beginning of bigger drops for Romney and (hopefully) increases for Obama. I'm fairly certain Romney just had a few monster days around last weekend (what was with last Sunday? PPP had the same thing happen) and those should be dropping off soon. I don't know if it will eventually show an Obama lead in their poll, but the huge leads for Romney are obvious outliers as no other polls show anything close to this. I would suspect the margin to start dropping by 2 or more for a couple days before moving into roughly a tie, if I had to guess.

http://www.gallup.com/...

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Big day for Obama in the polls, increasing Obama back up to a 70.4% favorite to win... Can we get back up to the days of near 85-90%?

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

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Thu Oct 18, 2012 at 01:10 PM PDT

PPP CO: O 50 - R 47

by leshrac55

I would qualify this as relatively good news... It's down from his high of a 6 point lead from before the first debate, but still fairly solid and Obama at 50%. PPP also points out that this matches the smallest lead that they've shown for Obama, so hopefully that means this is actually a worst case scenario.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...

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Not much to say here, but it is improvement from their last regular poll of the race... They also mention on twitter that Wednesday was Obama's best day, but that there wasn't a ton of movement overall day to day:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...

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