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Here's another case where elections matter.  In an interview with Barbara Walters this morning he said, "'It does not make sense from a prioritization point of view' to focus on drug use in states where it is now legal."

It's not the ringing endorsement of legality that people might like, but when you're asked if you would make pot legal and you answer, "I wouldn't go that far," that's a case where you can evolve more on the issue over the course of his term.  It's just a start, but it is indeed a start.  Keep pushing and let's see where this will go.

Source is an article in the Seattle Times.  http://seattletimes.com/...  Sorry I don't have more detail.

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http://washingtonunitedformarriage.org/...

After crunching numbers throughout the night, Washington United for Marriage (WUM), the broad coalition which built an historic statewide campaign, from a record-setting donor base to an unprecedented GOTV effort, all to defend the freedom to marry, today announced that Referendum 74 will be approved by voters.

“This is a clear win,” said WUM campaign manager Zach Silk. “We have run the numbers every which way, and we can now confidently say that we have won. This is an historic day for Washington, an historic day for our country and, most of all, for families across the state who have dreamed of this day and the wedding celebrations to come.”

I'll admit that I've spent way too much time today running the numbers myself and trying to find a way where they don't work.  I'm pretty confident but due to Washington's all mail vote system, I won't feel 100% until 4:30 today when many counties (including Seattle's King) drop updated results that have the ballots that arrived today.  

I remember R-71 a few years ago and the initial numbers stayed very static throughout the first few days of updates.  If the 70,000 vote lead turns into 100 or 150k, then I don't see any way that it can lose.   So while I'm not about to call it yet, where the outstanding numbers are do make it hard to see it losing.  

Apparently NOM came to the same conclusion as they are talking about losing all four elections this cycle.  http://www.nomblog.com/...

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Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 10:01 AM PST

Great OH early voting news from Nate

by thezzyzx

I've been worried about GotV since that's the one thing that could make the polls be off.  Living on the West Coast makes it hard to volunteer.  So seeing this tweet from Nate definitely was good:

New early voting stats in Ohio: Cuyahoga County = 35% of 2008 turnout so far. Rest of state = 24%. Similar to 2008. http://www.sos.state.oh.us/...
He goes into a little more detail in his recent post:
The most recent figures in Democratic-leaning Cuyahoga County, home to Cleveland, suggest that about 236,000 votes have already been cast there, representing 35 percent of 2008 turnout.

In Franklin County, where Columbus is the largest city and which is the Democrats’ next best county in the state, early votes represent 36 percent of 2008 turnout.

By comparison, the early vote represents 21 percent of 2008 turnout in the other 86 counties in Ohio, combined.

In 2008 it was 39% in Cuyahoga, 44 in Franklin, and 22% elsewhere.

What makes this (and the data he gives for NV and IA) so important is that it's different data validating the polls.  Romney's hope is that the polls are off.  This is evidence that they're not.

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On a Phish message board that's been partially taken over by conservative trolls for some reason, the following point has been made over and over today, "Democrats trail their 2008 numbers in absentee voting in VA, OH, and IA."  It's part of a larger point that we're disinterested.

I haven't looked up VA and OH it's impossible to tell by how they register party affiliation, but I don't see how they get there with Iowa.  According to http://elections.gmu.edu/... , in 2008 there were 481,179 votes, 46.9% of which were registered as Democrats. That's under 226,000 voters. So far in 2012 according to the SoS ( http://sos.iowa.gov/... ), 261,166 Democratic ballots have been received with 3 days to go. I don't see how 261k is less than 226k.

Am I missing something obvious or are they just lying again.  I'm assuming they're lying.  If someone tells you that, there's your counter.

By the way the SoS site also shows that we have a 20k gap in ballots received but not yet returned.  Assuming the vast majority of them do get submitted (which I figure is a safe-ish assumption), that'll make the gap very similar to 2008's but with a lot more ballots shifted to early voting meaning there will be far fewer votes to make it up.

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The Rand model is weird so I don't know what to make of it, but there was movement in the first day of post debate information there.  Yesterday, the race was 49.07 - 45.16 Obama, today it's moved to 50.03 - 44.34.  Here's hoping this is the start of a trend that other trackers find.   Obama doesn't need much to retake control of the race.  A 1-2 point drift in his direction will give him the two point lead that Nate keeps feeling seems right (and also kind of feels right to me).  Between this and the leads in NV and OH (and the fact that Romney hasn't yet shown a lead in WI), it's obvious who has the stronger position even before the debate.  It should only get better from here.

https://mmicdata.rand.org/...

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Romney's comments about health care yesterday might have been more damaging than his 47% ones.  If played right, this could be a huge hit for him.   It's not just what he said was factually wrong - people do die from lack of health insurance, the ER just stabilizes patients, and the service is most definitely not always paid for - but he did so in a way that can give Obama's campaign a new focus and - at the same time - reveals the worst about Romney in a way that furthers existing narratives about him.

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Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 10:03 AM PDT

Massive pro-Obama movement in Gallup

by thezzyzx

Favorability went from 48/46 to 51/44.  

http://www.gallup.com/...

Head to head went from 49/47 to 50/45 which is huge in a 7 day poll, especially considering a pre-debate day dropped off and a post debate was added.

http://www.gallup.com/...

This is a third data point after Rasmussen and PPP to show that the polls are moving back the other way.  We can't take another bad debate but one might not have been the end of the world.

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Don't panic just yet people - and by people I most definitely am including me.  Romney's 2 point lead in Rasmussen has now vanished.  It's a 48/48 tie.  Moreover this sample still includes Friday which was likely an amazing day for Romney.  It's quite possible Obama will be back in the lead in Rasmussen by tomorrow.  

It's been a stressful couple of days and I don't think anyone is complacent anymore, but this is looking a lot more like a brief movement than a game changer.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/...

So after the worst debate disaster ever in the history of mankind, at the height of the OMG We're DOOOOOOOMED! panic, exactly one pollster showed Romney actually taking a lead and it's the one that has the most well known Republican skew.  I won't breathe a sigh of relief yet, but it's looking a lot better today.  Obama better step up next week, but in the meantime GOTV, donate, do what you can!

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That's my advice to everyone who isn't happy with the movement in the polls right now.  I live in a safe state and can't travel to help GotV more directly, but at least I can throw Obama a few dollars to help.  Right now the thought of Romney lying his way to the White House terrifies me, so I did what I can.

As panicked as we are, debates are rarely game changing and a lead that flips one way quickly can go back the other just as fast.  We have time to stop this.  Donate, volunteer, do what you can.  No time for complacency!

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The Obama vs Romney numbers didn't change at all but the first day post debate saw a 6 point swing in Obama's favor.  Yesterday he was at 50% approval, 44% disapproval, today the swing is 54/42.  That's the highest approval I could find for Obama since August 2009.  

So yeah, the debate didn't go according to plan but at least Obama is in a position of strength to the point where a brief blip can be survived.

http://www.gallup.com/...

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At least last night, Romney did win the debate.  Let's be honest there.  Obama looked flat and Romney wasn't his weird robotic self.  It was not fun to watch at all.

However, there's one thing missing from the debate that would make things horrible.  While there were plenty of awful moments, none of them were of the type that make great video.  While the optics in the moment were bad, was there anything that you could imagine getting shown over and over again?  

Moreover, the "X Said but Y Said" media actually comes to our aid now.  The headlines are along the lines of, "Obama, Romney clash on economy" (Seattle Times), "Obama and Romney Tangle on Economy" (NY Times), "Romney attacks Obama on his economic record" (Washington Post).  OK CNN went for the horse race but that's what they do.  When they show one of Romney's clips, they will feel compelled to add the rebuttal of, "Mind you, Obama's camps say this is a lie because it contradicts all of his campaigning for the last 6 years."  It might have looked good in the moment, but I'm not sure how well it will age.

Sure I would have preferred a win or even a closer fight, but this is Romney's first good day in about 3 months.  He was due for one.  It's been a while so we've all forgotten how it feels.  Still though, without a moment that stuck in anyone's mind, I don't know how long the rush can last until the next story happens - and with a job report coming out and Turkey, that might be soon.  It wasn't a good night by any means, but it's not the end of the world either.

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Obama +1 approval -1 disapproval in Gallup today along with a similar +1 Obama -1 Romney swing.

48/45 approval 50/44 Obama v Romney.

http://www.gallup.com/...

Now what are they going to talk about?

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