The massive, non-violent, world-wide Women’s March was a major organizer of the Resistance. We know that the women and men who surged into this march were pro-choice because the organizers had wisely prohibited anti-choice groups from participating. That protest showed our power, especially since we went on use that energy in other political actions. If Roe had been on the chopping block then, the march would have been even larger.
The wind is at our back.
On May 25 of this year Ireland, a 75% Catholic country, gave the world a shock. Back in 1983, 35 years ago, the electorate had approved the Eighth Amendment to the Irish Constitution, which gave a fetus and a pregnant woman equal rights. The Amendment passed by a margin of 66.90% to 33.10%. Then on May 25 of this year the electorate reversed itself, and voted in favor of removing the Eighth Amendment by a margin of 66.4% to 33.6%. Pollsters had predicted a very close vote. In 1983, 54% registered voters went to the polls; in 2018 64% did.
The Yes vote, remove the Eighth Amendment, broke down as follows: 72.1% women 65.9% men. Rather than focus on the gender gap, what's impressive here is that men voted nearly 2 to 1, making it a landslide on their vote alone. The age breakdown was thus: aged 65 and over, 41.3; 52-64 year olds 63.7; 35-49 year olds, 72.8; 25-34 year olds, 84.6; 18-24 year olds, 87.6 (link).
A few years before a similar shock had rattled the anti-choicers in Mississippi. when, in November, 2011, they tried for a fetal personhood amendment which was voted down 58% to 42% (link), though the prediction had been “too close to call.” Opponents of this amendment argued not just about abortion, but also emphasized broader issues, including, but not limited to, a miscarriage being mistaken for an abortion, a pregnant women being denied treatment for cancer, the prohibition of many types of birth control.
The next year in Ireland the concerns of the people of Mississippi were proven valid. In October, 2012 Savita Halappapanava, a 27 year old woman, went into the hospital suffering severe back pain due to a stalled miscarriage. Doctors examined her, and told her the fetus would soon die. She and her husband repeatedly requested an abortion, but for days the hospital refused to honor their request because the fetus’ heart was still beating. Finally, Savita’s suffering, weakened body was somehow able to eject the fetus. By that time she was septic, and she died several days later. (link) Further galvanized by this gruesome tragedy, the burgeoning anti-Eighth Amendment movement plowed on to ultimate victory.
Clean votes are the true measure of the desire for human reproductive and sexual freedom. When the only thing that is on the ballot is choice, the pro-choicers win by a landslide. If there were such thing as a national referendum, we would immediately have the right to privacy in sexual and reproductive matters in our Constitution. So the question becomes, how can we get reproductive and sexual freedom prominent enough to make its landslide quality affect an election outcome?
Many factors will contibute.
The idea that after Roe things will go back to the way they were before Roe is a myth. Most dramatically, before Roe, abortionists were punished; women were not. After Roe, women are also fair game.
For decades the GOP has been competing to see who can enact the most psychopathic trigger law. So far, Louisiana is the champion. In Louisiana a trigger law swings into effect 10 days after Roe is gone, and at that point anyone who performs or aides in performing an abortion can be fined up to $100,000 and committed to up to 10 years hard labor. (link) This law is fact, not a what-might-happen, not something out of a dystopian novel. Under this law if a mother obtains a chemical abortion for a daughter who has been raped, they will both wind up doing hard labor in prison. Whoever supplied them will join them.
Republicans have been able to get away with enacting these laws for so long because of the intensity of their anti-choice voters, subterfuge, and Democrats’ belief that they cannot win in the South without that voting bloc. Republicans rev up the anti-choicers in between election times, build up their intensity. Then, a couple of months before the election they run on issues like filling potholes, providing, jobs lowering taxes.
“Hide and distract” won’t work this time around. Because of the Supreme Court battle, Roe will be an issue regardless of what politicians on either side of the aisle would prefer.
Anti-choicers thrive in the dark. Thankfully, there are going to be many bright, sunshiny days between now and the midterm elections.