Interesting chart today over at electoralvote.com regarding presidential results and outcomes.
Sorry, but the result is pretty clear. In Presidential elections, Progressives have lost every time since WW2. Moderates have a 71% winning percentage (nearly 90% in Popular Vote terms.
So…...we had better think long and hard about this decision. History tells us going too far Left is a losing proposition. As Aaron Sorkin said so eloquently in The Newsroom, “America is, generally, a nation of Centrists.”
Democratic primary voters over the course of the next 14 months will be wrestling over the question of whether they should nominate a progressive or moderate Democrat to run for president in 2020. Every election is different and the 2020 one will be very different than any previous one because the incumbent is so unpopular. Nevertheless, Democrats have nominated both moderates and progressives over the years, so we can look at their respective track records. Here are the Democratic nominees since after WW II and the results, with an asterisk indicating a victory.
| Year |
Moderate |
Progressive |
| 1948 |
Harry Truman* |
|
| 1952 |
|
Adlai Stevenson |
| 1956 |
|
Adlai Stevenson |
| 1960 |
John Kennedy* |
|
| 1964 |
Lyndon Johnson* |
|
| 1968 |
|
Hubert Humphrey |
| 1972 |
|
George McGovern |
| 1976 |
Jimmy Carter* |
|
| 1980 |
Jimmy Carter |
|
| 1984 |
|
Walter Mondale |
| 1988 |
|
Michael Dukakis |
| 1992 |
Bill Clinton* |
|
| 1996 |
Bill Clinton* |
|
| 2000 |
Al Gore |
|
| 2004 |
John Kerry |
|
| 2008 |
Barack Obama* |
|
| 2012 |
Barack Obama* |
|
| 2016 |
Hillary Clinton |
|
As you can see, none of the progressive candidates won. Not all the moderates won either, but in 8 out of 11 attempts by a moderate, the candidate was victorious, for a success rate of 73%.
One might argue about whether Kennedy was a moderate or a progressive, but if we look at what he did, it becomes clear. One of his biggest legislative achievements was cutting the top tax rate from 91% to 70% and the corporate rate from 52% to 48%. As a general rule, progressives don't reduce taxes for rich people and corporations. Of course, Kennedy also introduced the Civil Rights Act, which Lyndon Johnson eventually got passed, but 82% of Senate Republicans and 80% of House Republicans voted for it. A bill supported by the vast majority of Republicans in Congress can hardly be called progressive. The country simply realized this was needed.
What do these data say about 2020? Well, historically, moderate Democrats have usually won and progressive Democrats have always lost. Given such a weak incumbent, the Democrats could conceivably win with any candidate, but if they want to play safe, they are probably better off with one of the moderates. On the other hand, if they want to go big, next year could be the right time to try. (V)
