My Name is Judge! A DKE Guide to the "partisan" balance of the Courts (Part 2)

HoosierD42

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Sunday December 09, 2012 · 10:06 PM PST

2012/12/09 · 22:06

A continuation of my pocket guide, started here, this time covering the federal district courts, the next level down.

HoosierD42

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Friday November 30, 2012 · 12:09 AM PST

2012/11/30 · 00:09

Maybe this has always been the case, but it seems like the Courts have had an increasing role in how our elections work lately. Redistricting, new laws, etc. are becoming more common. And from a non-electorally focused POV, the Courts are always relevant, providing a constitutional bulwark against potential abuses of power by legislatures and executives.

So I wanted to provide a guide to how these courts look, so we can look at what decisions are coming from where through the proper lens.

A quick disclaimer: Judges are, of course, supposed to be nonpartisan and only follow laws and precedent, but that's not always the case. Even so, there can be divisions within the "partisan" divide. A G.H.W. Bush- or even Reagan-appointed judge is going to be less partisan than a G.W. Bush judge. Democratic-appointed judges are less likely to be partisan at all, but Obama-appointed judges are more likely to be more liberal than Clinton- or Carter-appointed judges. So this is not a definitive guide to how any particular court will decide a particular issue. But it can help. Thanks for reading.

HoosierD42

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Monday November 05, 2012 · 1:55 AM PST

2012/11/05 · 01:55

This is a rundown of where women will (or could) stand in the 113th Congress, both in the Senate and the House

HoosierD42

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Tuesday October 16, 2012 · 5:57 PM PDT

2012/10/16 · 17:57

For any who may be reading this series for the first time: this is a thought experiment where I try to see what would happen if the size of the House of Representatives were doubled to 870 members from 435. This series is both highly theoretical and very unlikely to ever occur.

I almost didn't publish this final diary, I wasn't sure if people would even notice. But thanks to WisJohn, I know I have fans! So even though the timing of this, with only 4 weeks to go until the general election, is not conducive to fantasy redistricting diaries, here it is, the final installment in Doubling the House.

Links to the adopted plans in this diary: Arkansas, Iowa, Kentucky, Minnesota, Oregon

Previous Doubling Diaries: CA, PA, TX, WA, MT, NY, AZ, CO, KS, AL, GA, TN, IL, MD, WV, DC, New England, NE, MO, NC, MI, FL, SC, WI, LA, MS, UT, NV, OK, AK, WY, IN, NJ, VA, OH, HI, ND, SD, NM, VT, DE and ID

Poll

24 votes Show Results

Can Democrats win AR-3 and KY-10?

24 votes Vote Now!

Can Democrats win AR-3 and KY-10?

Both

7 votes

Neither

9 votes

Only AR-3

2 votes

Only KY-10

6 votes

Doubling the House: California

HoosierD42

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Friday May 25, 2012 · 5:15 AM PDT

2012/05/25 · 05:15

Two major things happened in California politics in the last couple years:

First, in 2010 voters approved a constitutional amendment mandating that the California Citizens Redistricting Commission, which was already drawing the lines for the Legislature, would also draw districts for the state's Congressional districts, instead of the Legislature. This is significant because without this amendment, we would probably have ended up with a bipartisan incumbent protection map that we got in 2001, locking in a 33-20 map, with only one seat changing parties in 10 years. Because of the demographic revolution that California is going through, the CCRC would have no choice but to draw districts that are more favorable to Democrats, while also ignoring incumbents' homes, throwing more than a couple into districts with each other. So through redistricting alone, we will probably have netted 4-5 seats.
Second, California moved away from the traditional primary system, opting instead for a system much like Washington's, the "Top-Two" Primary. All candidates of all parties run in one primary, and the top two move on to the general election, regardless of party. So two Republicans and two Democrats could end up running against each other in the general election, and we're all but guaranteed to see a couple of those this November.

Suffice to say, traditional California politics have been completely upended. Not being a nonpartisan commission, I decided to try my hand at a Dem-friendly map, Doubled.

Enacted Congressional map for 2012: North, South

Previous Doubling Diaries: PA, TX, WA, MT, NY, AZ, CO, KS, AL, GA, TN, IL, MD, WV, DC, New England, NE, MO, NC, MI, FL, SC, WI, LA, MS, UT, NV, OK, AK, WY, IN, NJ, VA, OH, HI, ND, SD, NM, VT, DE and ID

HoosierD42

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Sunday April 29, 2012 · 3:33 AM PDT

2012/04/29 · 03:33

Pennsylvania is a state that has voted in Democratic 9 out of the last 13 presidential elections. However, it also has a tradition since the 50s where if gives each party two terms in the Governorship and then switches, like clockwork. And as such, the last two times there was a census, Republicans controlled the redistricting process. The last time, it was a dummymander that backfired on the Republicans. Let's hope they're wrong again. Sigh.

Anyway, here's my take.

Link to the adopted plan.

Previous Doubling Diaries: TX, WA, MT, NY, AZ, CO, KS, AL, GA, TN, IL, MD, WV, DC, New England, NE, MO, NC, MI, FL, SC, WI, LA, MS, UT, NV, OK, AK, WY, IN, NJ, VA, OH, HI, ND, SD, NM, VT, DE and ID

HoosierD42

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Wednesday April 18, 2012 · 12:44 AM PDT

2012/04/18 · 00:44

Just fucking SIGH. After the Texas legislature drew a blatantly illegal redistricting map, which handed all four of the new congressional districts to Republicans, we were given the chance to draw a new map through a San Antonio court. And that map was pretty awesome, all things considered. But then of course, the Supreme Court of the freakin' United States stepped in and said that the court had to show deference to the legislature, and just fix the parts that were illegal instead of drawing a whole new one. You know what SCOTUS? If parts of the map are illegal, then the whole thing is illegal.

So instead of a decent map, we get a shitty map that throws us a couple bones.

Well in my world, your shit just got Doubled, Texas.

Links to the adopted plan: North, South

Previous Doubling Diaries: WA, MT, NY, AZ, CO, KS, AL, GA, TN, IL, MD, WV, DC, New England, NE, MO, NC, MI, FL, SC, WI, LA, MS, UT, NV, OK, AK, WY, IN, NJ, VA, OH, HI, ND, SD, NM, VT, DE and ID

HoosierD42

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Monday April 09, 2012 · 11:15 PM PDT

2012/04/09 · 23:15

These two states were relatively neutral to us this redistricting cycle. Washington, which gained a seat in the 2010 census, redistricts using a bipartisan commission, which created a new lean Democratic district, while at the same time weakening another Dem district and pushing a swingy district more to the right. So of course, I wanted to try and see what I could do without that whole "bipartisan" business.

Montana, of course, is an at-large state, so congressional redistricting did nothing for or against us.

Link to the adopted plan in Washington.

Previous Doubling Diaries: NY, AZ, CO, KS, AL, GA, TN, IL, MD, WV, DC, New England, NE, MO, NC, MI, FL, SC, WI, LA, MS, UT, NV, OK, AK, WY, IN, NJ, VA, OH, HI, ND, SD, NM, VT, DE and ID

Poll

50 votes Show Results

How many seats can Democrats win in a Doubled Montana?

50 votes Vote Now!

How many seats can Democrats win in a Doubled Montana?

Zero

4 votes

One

24 votes

Two

20 votes

Three

2 votes

Doubling the House: New York

HoosierD42

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Sunday April 01, 2012 · 9:48 PM PDT

2012/04/01 · 21:48

First, a haiku.

Andrew Cuomo
You wanted Republicans?
You got 'em, asshole

Exhibit A in "Why Andrew Cuomo Should Never be a Democratic Nominee for President" will be the redistricting fuckover he gave us. Originally threatening to veto any congressional and legislative maps that weren't drawn by an independent redistricting panel, he instead allowed a horrendous Republican gerrymander of the State Senate, including a brand-new 63rd seat, and once the legislature had that, they didn't give a shit about congressional redistricting, they let a court-appointed "special master" draw it. Cuomo apparently doesn't mind working with a Republican branch of the legislature.

The congressional map we got isn't all that bad, it eliminates two seats: Bob Turner's (R) seat in NYC and an open Dem seat, in favor of a compact, CoI map. That resulted in us likely to lose Rep. Kathy Hochul, but two Republican incumbents (Hayworth and Gibson) were also weakened. But Dems should still be outraged at these shenanigans.

Anyway, I wanted to draw a Dem-friendly map, but Doubled.

Link to the adopted plan.

Previous Doubling Diaries: AZ, CO, KS, AL, GA, TN, IL, MD, WV, DC, New England, NE, MO, NC, MI, FL, SC, WI, LA, MS, UT, NV, OK, AK, WY, IN, NJ, VA, OH, HI, ND, SD, NM, VT, DE and ID

HoosierD42

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Thursday March 15, 2012 · 1:40 AM PDT

2012/03/15 · 01:40

Three states where redistricting was, on balance, kind to us! In Arizona, the Independent Redistricting Commission drafted a map that could actually make us a majority Democratic delegation. In Colorado, even though Republicans took one house of the legislature, a court picked the Democratic drawn map, which would send two Republican congressmen packing. And in Kansas, where the "moderate" and conservative wings of the state Republican party continue to hate each other, we could end up with a not-terrible map, with one Democratic-leaning district and one we could have an outside chance at! I, of course, tried to take that a little further with my Doubling.

Adopted maps in Arizona and Colorado. Kansas' redistricting process is still ongoing.

Previous Doubling Diaries: AL, GA, TN, IL, MD, WV, DC, New England, NE, MO, NC, MI, FL, SC, WI, LA, MS, UT, NV, OK, AK, WY, IN, NJ, VA, OH, HI, ND, SD, NM, VT, DE and ID

HoosierD42

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Wednesday February 29, 2012 · 3:31 PM PST

2012/02/29 · 15:31

Ahhh, the south. Where white Democrats are a dying breed (except maybe in Georgia). I've already diaried my Doubling maps for South Carolina, Mississippi and Florida, so this diary will be Alabama, Georgia and Tennessee (I'm waiting for political data on Kentucky to try drawing a map).

The adopted plans in Alabama, Georgia and Tennessee

Previous Doubling Diaries: IL, MD, WV, DC, New England, NE, MO, NC, MI, FL, SC, WI, LA, MS, UT, NV, OK, AK, WY, IN, NJ, VA, OH, HI, ND, SD, NM, VT, DE and ID

HoosierD42

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Friday February 24, 2012 · 10:10 PM PST

2012/02/24 · 22:10

This is another state where redistricting was kind to Democrats (one of about a half dozen, I think): Pat Quinn managed to hold on to the Governorship by about 1% and Democrats held onto their large legislative majorities despite losing 4 U.S. House seats. Well the new map (seen here) could easily cut Republican's current House delegation in half. And since this is a diary in which Democrats hold the trifecta, I don't have to feel bad about about gerrymandering the shit out of it!

Previous Doubling Diaries: MD, WV, DC, New England, NE, MO, NC, MI, FL, SC, WI, LA, MS, UT, NV, OK, AK, WY, IN, NJ, VA, OH, HI, ND, SD, NM, VT, DE and ID

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My Name is Judge! A DKE Guide to the "partisan" balance of the Courts (Part 2)

Here Come the Judges! A DKE Guide to the "partisan" balance of the Courts (Part 1)

Women in the 113th Congress: Senate

Doubling the House: The Rest!

Doubling the House: California

Doubling the House: Pennsylvania

Doubling the House: Texas

Doubling the House: Washington and Montana

Doubling the House: New York

Doubling the House: Arizona, Colorado and Kansas

Doubling the House: The South!

Doubling the House: Illinois