OK, before you beat me up, listen to this. We have set in motion in Iraq the very same conditions that created Al-Qaeda.
How did Al-Qaeda develop? They grew out of an insurgency that fought against Russia in Afghanistan. That conflict attracted fighters from all over the Middle East, and we helped fund and train them, particularly Bin Ladin and his crew.
What is happening in Iraq now? An insurgency is growing in defiance of the US, bringing together people from all over the Middle East who are working together to attack us. Not only that, we are training Iraqis in the National Guard, many of whom are defecting along with their knowledge and equipment.
We will eventually leave Iraq. The biggest problem for the US coming out of this is not necessarily the lack of a democracy in Iraq, or the probable coming civil war, but the group we have inspired. There will be a large, well-trained group of people who hate us, who have the express goal of bringing America down, who will have experienced success in harming us already. This group will last long past the conflict, just as Al-Qaeda did in Afghanistan. Even if we get out, we have not heard the last of these folks.
We have created our own version of Al-Qaeda in Iraq, and they will come back to bite us in the ass down the road. We don't know this group's name yet, but we will be hearing from them.