2012 Minnesota Predictions: How Did I Do?

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Friday November 22, 2013 · 3:18 PM PST

2013/11/22 · 15:18

Six months before the election, I made some long-range predictions on Minnesota county performances for the 2012 Presidential race. At the time, polls indicated Minnesota would perform similarly to 2008 for Obama, and while I had a few scares over the course of the campaign, the final result did end up being similar, with Obama's 10-point margin of 2008 shrinking only to eight points in 2012. I put the counties into different categories based on their expected competitiveness. I did my own category by category comparison to see how well I held up a few weeks after the election but never posted it as a diary. I'm 12 months too late for it to be current, but here's how I fared in the two-party vote for the Presidential race with some additional paragraphs about downballot races......

Mark27

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Sunday October 06, 2013 · 11:22 AM PDT

2013/10/06 · 11:22

There are few things more exciting than watching the returns roll in for a close election, and particularly so when the election is in a red state. I got to thinking a few days ago how the county map for a competitive red state election would probably look a lot different today than it would have even 10 years ago, and from there my inspiration for this diary was born. In the paragraphs below the fold I will give my thoughts on what I think a winning map would look like for a Democratic Senate candidate in each of the red states with 2014 Senate races, followed by one red state that doesn't have a Senate race next year but where I have some thoughts I feel worth are sharing on the topic anyway. Obviously there are variables including the hometowns of certain candidates that produce unusually large vote hauls for them, but I'm looking at it from as neutral of perspective as possible. Here goes.....

Mark27

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Sunday June 23, 2013 · 11:46 AM PDT

2013/06/23 · 11:46

Like so many public policy debates that go on in America, the people will be robbed of the debate we should be having as it relates to the immigration reform plan front and center in Congress right now. Charles Babington and the rest of the Beltway pundits are most interested in how this legislation will impact the partisan horse race and escalating tribalism in American politics. The lawmakers themselves are most obsessed with border security and the legal treatment of current and future illegal immigrants. While both discussions are important, we're missing the forest for the trees if we limit the entire immigration debate to these issues. Finally getting some headlines this week is that the immigration reform legislation will increase the numbers of legal immigrants that America absorbs to 36 million over the course of the next 20 years. That's a pretty eye-opening number, and the specifics of that legal immigration surge and its impact on our economy should be front and center in the debate over this legislation.

Mark27

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Sunday May 12, 2013 · 10:41 AM PDT

2013/05/12 · 10:41

If President Obama had had the decency to tell American smokers that he planned to single them out for ANOTHER $1,000+ per year tax increase at the beginning of his second term, would he have been re-elected? It's impossible to know for sure, but my suspicion is it would have been at best a nailbiter rather than a decisive victory. No matter how much one may agree with Obama and the Democrats on the issues, and how much they may have feared Romney and the Republicans, it's getting to the point of being financially impossible for voters who smoke to cast a ballot for the party. Worse yet, it's increasingly clear at this point that the Democratic Party is gonna perceive every election victory as a mandate to further weaponize the tax code against smokers at all levels of government, and it's to the point now of imposing tangible financial harm on both smokers and everybody else in their households....and it's hard to imagine that they're gonna keep going back to the open arms of their abusers when in the voting booth.

Mark27

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Saturday April 13, 2013 · 10:32 AM PDT

2013/04/13 · 10:32

President Obama has long been telegraphing his intentions to screw over Social Security and Medicare beneficiaries, so it was no real surprise last week when he proposed "chaining" the Consumer Price Index to reduce Social Security outlays. The impact will be small initially, with the average retiree's check reduced by only about $40 the first year. Over time, however, the impact will be much more significant, and 20 years into the future, recipients can expect to earn nearly $1,000 less than they would have without the chained CPI gambit. Given that the vast majority of Americans are already positioned to enter their golden years vastly unprepared to finance the costs of old age, after three decades of stolen pensions, two decades of interest rates on savings at or near 0%, nearly one decade of slumping home values, and a stock market deflating from one bubble after another on a near continual loop, it's a highly questionable priority to intentionally reducing their purchasing power even further. Kossacks are right to be outraged at Obama about it. However, chained CPI remains a distant second place on the list of the most despicable items in Obama's budget, and there's been virtually no Kossack outrage about the most awful item in this budget or any budget.....yet another doubling of the federal cigarette tax.

Mark27

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Friday April 05, 2013 · 6:52 PM PDT

2013/04/05 · 18:52

When polled individually, all three of the President's primary gun control measures have majority support. The assault weapons ban has the smallest mandate, but most polls still show a clear majority of 55% or more support it. When it comes to reducing high-capacity magazines and especially universal background checks, a decisive majority favors the President's position. Yet when poll respondents are asked generally about their feelings on additional gun control measures, support is much softer and appears to be declining as more time passes since Newtown. So what's with the confused public response?

Mark27

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Wednesday June 06, 2012 · 5:51 PM PDT

2012/06/06 · 17:51

Two high-profile billionaires have made the headlines for different reasons in the past two weeks. Plutocrat extraordinaire David Koch and New York City Michael Bloomberg may not seem like they have that much in common other than both having 11-figure net worths, but both have made it their life's purpose to exploit their wealth and influence to control the people whom they observe while looking out from their penthouse window, only with a different subset of priorities.

Mark27

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Sunday April 29, 2012 · 12:10 PM PDT

2012/04/29 · 12:10

Ever since I got my first World Almanac in 1990 I have compulsively followed Minnesota's county-by-county election returns, and beginning in 1997 when I got my hands on the Minnesota blue book, my fascination grew as I consumed election returns at the precinct level. In the years since, I have become more intimately familiar with Minnesota as I made a point of visiting every incorporated town in the state, learning its history and ethnic composition and drawing as many parallels as possible from this knowledge towards the communities' political leanings. Partisan loyalties seem to be in a constant state of flux as is the case in jurisdictions all across America and I thought it would be fun to handicap the election at a very specific county level for Minnesota in 2012 and see how close I get, dividing the counties into eight categories: Safe Obama, Likely Obama, Lean Obama, Tossup/Tilt Obama, Tossup/Tilt Romney, Lean Romney, Likely Romney, and Safe Romney. I'll be fairly conservative with my "safe" designations as nothing would be more embarrassing as decreeing a county "safe" for either Obama or Romney and then seeing the other guy win it. Specifics below the fold.

Mark27

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Sunday April 29, 2012 · 12:08 PM PDT

2012/04/29 · 12:08

I had hoped to write one giant diary to cover my profiles of all 87 Minnesota counties and the corresponding predictions for the 2012 Presidential election, but with about 80 of 87 county writeups completed, I tried to save the diary and got a "too much content" warning. As a consequence, I split the diary into two, dividing the counties I expect to go for Obama and the counties I expect go for Romney, including the tossups that tilt one way or other. By all accounts, this year's Senate race looks pretty predictable so I decided not to analyze likely county winners there, particularly since the Republicans don't even have a nominee yet. Obviously posting this six months before the election is a risk since it's unclear how the political environment in Minnesota and across the country will shake out, but in a way I find it helpful to take the long view as I can base my predictions mainly on the general political climate of the various counties while making note of counties with independent streaks that may surprise us if the margin gets lopsided one way or the other in the clutch. Hopefully readers find the extensive analysis helpful.

Mark27

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Wednesday October 05, 2011 · 4:18 PM PDT

2011/10/05 · 16:18

I thought this would be a fun little diary. Listed below are the 10 states that, for different reasons, are my favorite states to follow close elections in. All of the favorites are "coalition" states of some measure where, geographically, a variety of moving parts have to come together for the Democratic candidate to win rather than a single metropolitan area with a huge vote count. Most on the list have a history of producing close races that has helped to solidify my opinion of them as exciting states to track. After my 10 favorites, I'll add my three least favorite states regarding exciting statewide elections.....

Mark27

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Thursday September 08, 2011 · 5:56 PM PDT

2011/09/08 · 17:56

Much as we all enjoyed seeing Obama take on a tougher tone with Republicans tonight, he once again made the fatal flaw of making an opening bid that's what we would hope to get as a final compromise AT THE END of negotiations with Republicans. Perhaps he did it this time counting on Republicans not to work with him, but if the Republicans call his bluff, this will end up being Act Three of Republicans using Obama as a rug this very year.

Mark27

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Friday July 15, 2011 · 6:47 PM PDT

2011/07/15 · 18:47

This is a pretty out-there proposal, and possibly a jump-the-shark moment for the few who believe I haven't already jumped it, but drastic times could call for drastic measures. Failure to raise the debt ceiling is for all intents and purposes an act of economic terrorism waged by a seditious group of American politicians with the direct intent of causing serious harm to America. Our political enemies could only dream of doing the kind of damage to America that our own House of Representatives to poised to in the coming weeks. Conceding that what Tea Party Republicans in the House intend to do to the economy is terrorism, would it not be a nuclear option for Obama to declare known domestic terrorists as enemy combatants and have then sent to the very place Republicans insist enemy combatants should be detained....that being Guantanamo Bay?

Newer
Older

RSS

2012 Minnesota Predictions: How Did I Do?

Red State Senate Races: Geographic Paths to Victory

36 Million New Legal Immigrants Over 20 Years: The Debate We Should Be Having

Can Democrats Really Afford To Forfeit The Votes of 46 Million Smokers?

Chained CPI: The Second Most Appalling Item in the Obama Budget

How Much Has Anti-Tobacco Policy Hurt Us On Gun Control?

Mike Bloomberg and David Koch: The Same Person

Handicapping Minnesota For 2012 County by County--Obama Counties

Handicapping Minnesota for 2012 County by County--Romney Counties

The 10 Most Exciting States To Track Close Races

You Just Watch...Obama's Gonna Get Rolled Again

Hypothetical Guantanamo Option Regarding Debt Ceiling