Although I've been here for a few years now, this is my first diary.
I've noticed that its became a recent trend to single out specific poll results and not look at the whole picture. For example, when Obama tied Clinton in Rasmussen's daily tracking poll right after Super Tuesday, it made the Recommended list. The next day, Clinton 'surged' to a 3-point lead. These differences, of course, were most likely caused by the margin of error.
The same behavior is seen for state primary polls as well. Most of us would probably think that polls have a tendency to underestimate black turnout and their margins for Obama - but this definitely did not seem to be the case in states such as MA, where Clinton did significantly better than predicted in the black vote. This diary will try to analyze these patterns.
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