Democrats were just fine with the election results in 2010 here. Republicans targeted a few Democrats, but failed to gain a single seat here. However, they made some major changes in redistricting here. There are currently 8 Democrats that live in Lake County, and eight districts to run in, but two of them are now open seats. Two sets of Democrats are now paired. The tried to isolate as many Democrats in St. Joseph County into one district, and they eliminated a seat in the Region. They also created three Lake County seats that they could win, including one seat that they should win. Several of the few GOP incumbents in this region were not helped though, and one was paired with a Democrat. This is a region where the decision of President Obama to compete in Indiana or not will have a big impact. If he competes in Indiana, his team will work this area hard for a big Democratic turnout, which would boost Democrats chances in some of the competitive seats. And one cautionary note as to Elkhart County. It has one of the largest swings from 2004 to 2008. Bush won the county by more than 40 points, while Obama only lost by 11. The question there will be whether 2012 and beyond looks more like 2004 or 2008. The answer to that question will determine whether Democrats can make a play at Districts 21 and 48 in the future. In fact, this region is the opposite of the Southern Indiana numbers for the Presidential race, in that Obama over performed in this region.
I hope that readers will again notice how the GOP packs Democrats in a county into ultra-Democratic districts, and then chops the surrounding precincts for their gain. The idea that the GOP drew fair maps for the Indiana House is as laughable as imagining Sarah Palin playing on Jeopardy. If anyone remembers the 2001 round of redistricting, the Democrats did not exactly go for the gold. They tried to protect most of their incumbents and made only two major changes. They eliminated a Benton County based seat held by a retiring Democrat and moved it to Marion County, and they put Rep. Jim Aderholt (R-Indianapolis) in a more Democratic district.
Since this region has a sizable minority population (unlike most of Southern Indiana), I am putting the race stats with the political ones. Note: I did not miss District 13. It was moved from Lake County to an area west of Lafayette.
Read More
