Brit Vote 2010 – Final Welsh, Scottish and Northern Irish Opinion Polls

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Wednesday May 05, 2010 · 12:45 PM PDT

2010/05/05 · 12:45

As most Americans forget, the name of the country east of Ireland and south of Iceland is formally known as "The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland." That means it is a union of different nations, for want of a better term. In addition to Northern Ireland, there’s England, Scotland and Wales. Because England dominates by virtue of its population, the political polls tend to treat the Celtic portions as they would the Anglo-Saxon bits. I’m sure psephologists and pollsters have formulae that account for this, but I work in a Wall-Street related business, and I have learned not to trust mathematicians bearing models as much as Greeks bearing gifts (or junk-grade sovereign debt). This is a rather long-winded way of getting to three new polls that look at Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland (sometimes called "Ulster") separately ahead of tomorrow’s vote.

Vinlander

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Tuesday May 04, 2010 · 1:12 PM PDT

2010/05/04 · 13:12

We are down to the last two days of the campaign in the UK General Election of 2010, so we’re in a holding pattern. So, a quick look at how things are done over there fills the time nicely. Usually, political innovation moves from the US to Britain (e.g., teleprompters, leader debates, spin rooms). However in one regard, the innovations could move the other way. I have never seen an American campaign pull a get out the vote drive the way the British do it – they do it much better, and much of it has to do with the party apparatus and some to do with geography.

Vinlander

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Friday April 30, 2010 · 11:49 AM PDT

2010/04/30 · 11:49

The third and final debate among the leaders of Britain’s main political parties was a make-or-break event for Prime Minister Gordon Brown. Trailing badly in the polls, indeed expected to come third, Labour needed a big night from the PM. The party didn’t get it. Mr. Brown clearly lost the debate, and worse, he didn’t give the undecided voters any reason to consider backing a party that has governed for 13 years. What was particularly sad for his supporters was that the subject of the debate was "The Economy," which is Mr. Brown’s strong suit.

As many as 9.1 million Britons were watching the debate, despite ITV running the ever-popular prime time soap "Coronation Street" which 6.7 million watched (why, oh why, is this piffle still broadcast? That 6.7 million should never be allowed to vote). Over on Five, the Uefa Europa League game between Liverpool and Atletico Madrid drew 3.4 million (Well done, Fulham, who go to the final having won the match 2-1). The audience was there, but Gordo failed to connect, again. You can see it for yourself here.

Vinlander

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Tuesday April 27, 2010 · 12:58 PM PDT

2010/04/27 · 12:58

The British election has become rather interesting in the last couple of weeks thanks to a surge in popularity for the Liberal Democrats, the country’s perennial third party. Its leader, Nick Clegg, won the first debate held among the UK’s putative Prime Ministers (try saying that three times quickly) on April 15, and roughly drew for first with the Conservative David Cameron in the April 22 debate. The polls (with the odd exception) now show Cameron’s Tories in first, the LibDems second, and Gordon Brown’s Labour Party is third. However, most electoral models show that Labour would still get the most seats (but not a majority) in the next Parliament, with the Tories second and the LibDems third in seats.

Clearly, the voting system is flawed, and it has been Liberal policy (even before the Liberals merged with the Social Democrats in 1988) to replace the current first-past-the-post system (where a plurality of votes gets you the seat) with proportional representation [PR], the preferred method being the single transferable vote [STV], about which more later.

Vinlander

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Monday April 26, 2010 · 1:06 PM PDT

2010/04/26 · 13:06

There is only one way that British Prime Minister Gordon Brown will retain his office, and that is by winning an outright majority in the House of Commons in the British general election to be held May 6. According to the opinion polls, that isn’t going to happen. And over the week-end, the Liberal Democrats’ leader Nick Clegg made it clear that Labour is going to have to find itself a new leader if it wants the support of his party.

Vinlander

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Friday April 23, 2010 · 12:26 PM PDT

2010/04/23 · 12:26

Cross-posted at the Kensington Review.

The second debate among the putative Prime Ministers in the UK was last night on Sky News. It was a far cry from the first debate on ITV; after all, this debate wasn't an historic first, and it focused mainly on foreign policy, which rarely shifts votes. None of the three landed a decisive blow, but good policy punches landed here and there. Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg and Conservative leader David Cameron more or less tied for the win, and Labour Prime Minister Gordon Brown was much better than last week.

Vinlander

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Thursday April 22, 2010 · 10:03 AM PDT

2010/04/22 · 10:03

I’ve been posting diaries on the UK elections for the past 3 weeks or so, and as time has gone on, it has become more and more likely that no single party will win a majority of seats in the House of Commons. That is what is meant by a "hung parliament." These are quite common in other nations that use more equitable voting systems, but they arise rarely in the UK. Consequently, there isn’t a lot of precedent to follow, and since Britain doesn’t have a written constitution, a hung parliament creates a messy situation. And at the core of that mess is Her Majesty Elizabeth II. What follows is my semi-informed explanation (no one has an informed one) of what happens if nobody has a majority after all the votes are counted.

Vinlander

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Tuesday April 20, 2010 · 5:24 PM PDT

2010/04/20 · 17:24

Cross posted at the Kensington Review.

For a great many students of politics, opinion polls are the life's blood of a campaign. At the same time, it is common to refer to the campaign as a horse race. So the question is what about the people who do horse races for a living, that is, Britain's bookies, or as the Brits so genteelly put it, "turf accountants"? It appears that they are barely able to keep up with demand.

Vinlander

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Monday April 19, 2010 · 4:47 PM PDT

2010/04/19 · 16:47

Cross-posted at the Kensington Review.

The latest British opinion polls are the first to follow Thursday's historic debate among the putative prime ministers. The general consensus was that the Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg won the day. Even Labour's spin doctors said that Mr. Clegg "won on style," while Prime Minister Gordon Brown won on substance. The question in the minds of millions was whether this would have any impact on the opinion polls less than 3 weeks ahead of the election. Now the UK knows that the answer is "hell, yes." Several polls have the Liberal Democrats in second, actually ahead of Labour, and one has them in the lead. The question now is will it last? The answer almost certainly "no."

Vinlander

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Friday April 16, 2010 · 6:43 AM PDT

2010/04/16 · 06:43

This Diary is cross posted at the Kensington Review.

Last night, the British electorate was treated to a moment (90-minutes actually) of history. For the first time ever on UK TV, the would-be prime ministers debated one another. For Americans, this has become old hat, but in Britain, such debates are restricted to Prime Minister’s Question Time in Parliament, which few watch. From an electoral stand point, the Liberal Democrats’ leader Nick Clegg won, with Prime Minister Brown finishing second. Nevertheless, the Conservative Party of David Cameron still leads in the opinion polls.

Vinlander

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Thursday April 15, 2010 · 11:07 AM PDT

2010/04/15 · 11:07

This is the sixth in a series of diaries I am doing for the UK election to be held on May 6. I’ve covered the rules of the election in the first two, and the manifestoes (platforms) of the three main parties in three others. In this diary, I want to look at the UK election in terms of geography. You see, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (to use its full legal name) is not a homogeneous electorate. There are, in fact, at least four distinct nations within the UK: the English, the Scots, the Welsh and the Irish in Ulster. In fact, if you want to slice it even finer, England itself is composed of several different nations, there are at least two sets of Scots and Northern Irish, and probably two or three different varieties of Welshman. Just as Texans don’t vote like Californians, Highland Scots don’t vote like Englishmen in Kent. This isn’t meant to predict how the election will come out so much as I hope to illustrate what the local politics are (since all politics are local).

Vinlander

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Wednesday April 14, 2010 · 2:25 PM PDT

2010/04/14 · 14:25

This is the fifth diary in which I have looked at the UK general election set for May 6. The first two covered the rules under which the election is being held. The third and fourth looked at the Labour and Conservative manifestoes (platforms), which came out Monday and yesterday respectively. Today, Britain’s third party, the Liberal Democrats, have issued their manifesto.

Tomorrow, the leaders of the three big parties will hold the first ever TV debate in a British election on ITV1. I am still trying to confirm that you can watch it outside the UK on ITV's website. If so, it will start at 3:30 pm Eastern, 2:30 Central, 1:30 Mountain and 12:30 Pacific. If not, C-Span says it will run the debate Sunday night at 9 pm Eastern.

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Brit Vote 2010 – Final Welsh, Scottish and Northern Irish Opinion Polls

Brit Vote 2010 – How the UK Gets out the Vote

Brit Vote 2010 -- Brown Fails in Last Debate

Brit Vote 2010 – The Alternative Vote System Wouldn’t Give a Different Result

Brit Vote 2010 – Why Brown Won’t be PM Next Month

Brit Vote 2010 -- No Knock-Out in UK Political Debate

Brit Vote 2010 – A Hung Parliament and the Queen

Brit Vote -- UK Bookies Doing Huge Election Business

Brit Vote 2010 -- LibDems Soar in UK Opinion Polls

Brit Vote 2010 -- Clegg Wins Debate, Brown Second, Yet Tories Lead

Brit Vote 2010 – The Four Nations

Brit Vote 2010: Liberal Democrats’ Manifesto