Gary Johnson Effect in NC?

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Wednesday September 26, 2012 · 12:27 PM PDT

2012/09/26 · 12:27

I am working hard for the Obama campaign in NC and yesterday I received a copy of the sample ballot for Nov (thought I'll be voting on 10/18 the first day of early voting here) and saw that Gary Johnson is on our ballot for the Libertarians. I was sort of embarrassed not to know this. On way to work today amongst the sea of Obama signs (I live in Chapel Hill) I saw two Gary Johnson for prez signs. (No Romney signs at all I am pleased to report.)

So I have been looking for polls of NC with Governor Johnson included without success. PPP, who you think, being in Raleigh would poll including Johnson, seems to have done this in CO but not NC. I would be most grateful to anyone who could reply wiht a link to a credible poll for NC with Johnson included. Could be a key factor in the close race here.

It's Only 4.6 Cents

jbd66

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Thursday September 20, 2012 · 7:39 AM PDT

2012/09/20 · 07:39

Today's clarion call from the Republican Party is "redistribution." At the root of this charge is that President Obama is suggesting that the marginal tax rate on Adjusted Gross Income above $250,000 be increased from its current value of 35% to 39.6%, the value is was under President Clinton when the budget was last balanced.

So if I am fortunate enough to attain a AGI of $250,001, on that last dollar I pay 39.6 cents in tax rather than 35 cents. Rest assured fellow Kossacks, I'll never notice this if it happens and I be happy to pay it if I did.

I made a graph of the incremental tax burdens which would accrue to people making between $250,000 and $1,000,000 dollar to illustrate that this change in tax policy is not very significant. A data table showing the impact is below the fold

jbd66

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Tuesday September 18, 2012 · 7:05 AM PDT

2012/09/18 · 07:05

With the fallout of the Romney 47% video still in progress, I have been thinking about how best to help abet Governor Romney's demise today. I believe it is reasonable to assume that a large number of conservatives around the country today are wishing that Romney would step down in favor of Paul Ryan. Though this may be an appealling thought to Ryan devotees, it would almost certainly bring about an Obama landslide.

I suspect, however, that even a wave of speculation about this possibility would be damaging to the Romney campaign. So let's get the speculation moving. As you wonder through the world today, commit to saying "Hey did you hear that Romney is considering dropping out in favor of Paul Ryan" and let's see what happens.

GOTV Approaches, Maybe Both Are OK (with poll)

jbd66

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Monday September 17, 2012 · 7:29 AM PDT

2012/09/17 · 07:29

Over the last few weeks there has been a lively debate regarding the best way to get out the vote for President Obama. Given the clear polling data which shows the President Obama's support is higher in polls of registered voter compared to likely voters, GOTV efforts should be, and are, a key priority for the Obama campaing. The question is, "what is the best way to do this?"
Some people, like me, are in the "we are going to crush them camp". Think of these voters as everybody-likes-a-winner bandwagon fans. Other voters are motivated by the fear that we might lose. These are the voters motivated by the "fight like we are 10 points down appeals.

I am starting to believe that there isn't a right answer here and that the campaign needs to find a way to motivate both camps. What's your view?

Poll

29 votes Show Results

The best way to motivate Obama voters to get to the polls is:

29 votes Vote Now!

The best way to motivate Obama voters to get to the polls is:

"We are going to Crush Them?"

4 votes

"Fight like we are 10 points down"

9 votes

Cleverly using both messages

15 votes

GOTV efforts are not effective

1 vote

Maybe Indiana? (with poll)

jbd66

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Monday September 10, 2012 · 7:08 AM PDT

2012/09/10 · 07:08

Like many other Kos readers, I am obsessing this week about pressing our advantage and running up a big win rather than just squeaking by. I dreaming of big coattails and also building our structural advantage for the long term. I want to see the Obama campaign pursue some new states more agreesively, either to try to win this time, or to set the table for 2016. In the poll below I have left out my beloved and native state of NC, because, we are going to win it again this year. I'm thinking Indiana could be a good play for 2102.

Where do you think we should expand our campaign. Vote below in the poll.

Poll

196 votes Show Results

Which State Should the Obama Campaign Add to Its Target List?

196 votes Vote Now!

Which State Should the Obama Campaign Add to Its Target List?

Indiana

69 votes

Arizona

58 votes

Georgia

28 votes

Montana

13 votes

Texas

27 votes

Unsolicted Advice for the President

jbd66

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Sunday September 09, 2012 · 12:08 PM PDT

2012/09/09 · 12:08

It's now clear that we have momentum coming out of the DNC. The question is how best to exploit this. From the clips I heard President Obama is doing very well in FL. I think the time is ripe for a transition to a new strategy. We are in a great position in the swing states. Let's start campaning for a landslide. Everybody like a winner.

I'd like to see the president go to Wyoming, Montana, North Dakota, Georgia, Tennesse, etc. Let them see the real Obama instead of the fictional Obama. Romney is on the verge of total collapse. Let's go for the jugular.

To quote a diary from the other day. We are going to crush them!

Long Days Ahead for Romney

jbd66

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Thursday September 06, 2012 · 12:12 PM PDT

2012/09/06 · 12:12

After the end of the DNC tonight, election season truly starts. The Obama campaign undetstands this and has kept its power relatively dry up to this point. From here on out Romney can keep hiding from the media. The media won't tolerate it and it will invite comparisons to Sarah Palin.

Everyday will be a long day, with many questions to answer and many speaches to give. How will Romney fill this time? He can't talk about his time at Bain. He can't talk about his time as Governor. Calling Obama a socialist is only one sentence long. President Clinton destroyed Romney's economic critiques of the Obama administration.

This leaves him with only one option, to talk about his plan to govern. My thoughts on how that's going to work out below the squiggle.

jbd66

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Wednesday August 29, 2012 · 11:14 AM PDT

2012/08/29 · 11:14

When Romney named Ryan as his VP I was struck by the fact that even though Romney has been running for president forever, in all that time, he hadn't picked a VP and made a last minute selection based on his reading of the "tea leaves" at that moment in time.

Now the convention is upon us, and again, despite having decades to prepare, Romney's themes have been pulled together haphazardly at the very last moment. We've got the "We Built That" theme based on an deliberately incorrect splicing of the presidents speech from last month and the demonstrably false welfare charges. It's not surprising that Romney is peddling lies in Tampa, but didn't he have any lies ready for the convention until last month?

What they really don't like is insurance

jbd66

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Thursday August 16, 2012 · 6:46 AM PDT

2012/08/16 · 06:46

As the election process parses through all of unjust, dreadful and mathematically inaccurate pieces of the Ryan-Romney plan to eliminate Medicare and Medicade, I think it is important to remember that what they really don't like is insurance. Consider what insurance, at it's essence, really is. You get a group of people together (republicans call this socialism) who recognize that some percentage of them will be visited my misfortune that will require money to redress. So every month everyone in the pool chips in some money to the insurance pool, so that when someone does have a problem, there's money to pay for it. Simple as that really.

Republican plans for insurance tend to augur against this fundamental approach. Consider medical savings accounts. They involve only putting money in your own bucket, to save only for your own care, least some undeserving shirker use some of their insurance premium for some thing frivolous like stiches or chemotherapy. Further MSA only benefit people who start with a lot of money in the first place.

jbd66

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Tuesday August 14, 2012 · 7:51 AM PDT

2012/08/14 · 07:51

Mitt Romney has been running for president on a continuous basis since some time in 2006. Try to imagine that you have been spending the last 6 years doing almost nothing but trying to be elected president. If it were me, some time during that 6 year period, other than in the last couple of weeks before the convention, I think I would have settled on a VP. Someone I knew, I trusted, with whom I was compatible, and someone I would be comfortable as president if I could not complete my term.

Is it possible that Mitt Romney really didn't have anyone in mind such that it was just a crap shoot at the end based on his reading of the tea leaves just prior to the convention? Sadly, this is probably true. Consider that he has been running for president for 6 years and seems not to have figured out what he would do as president.

Poll

37 votes Show Results

Who did Mitt Romney Really Want as VP

37 votes Vote Now!

Who did Mitt Romney Really Want as VP

Paul Ryan

2 votes

Tim Pawlenty

18 votes

Chris Christie

5 votes

Sarah Palin

1 vote

Joe Liberman

3 votes

Donald Trump

8 votes

Calling George H. W. Bush

jbd66

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Monday August 13, 2012 · 10:31 AM PDT

2012/08/13 · 10:31

When Ronald Reagan first promoted trickle down economics during the 1980 GOP primary, George H. W. Bush spoke the truth when he called it "Vodoo Economics". Whatever his political leaning, H.W. is a smart guy. He must see what 32 years of trickle down have done to the country he served and loved.

Here we have Rmoney and Ryan trying to double down again on this failed, disproven, mathematically impossible economic plan. Perhaps the 41st president could serve his country one more time, re-assert the Vodoo claim and endorse President Obama.

Bob Dole's Investments in 96

jbd66

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Monday August 06, 2012 · 6:32 AM PDT

2012/08/06 · 06:32

As the discussion continues on what Mitt Romney is hiding by not releasing his tax returns and the secret behind his magical mistery IRA balance, I am having a memory regarding Bob Dole that I would like to have confirmed. I seem to recall that when he ran for president in 1996, 100% of Bob Dole's investments were in US Treasury Bonds. Can anyone confirm this?

If my memory is correct this seems to be another contrast that the Obama Campaign could use to compare Governor Romney to past republican candidates. Think "Bob Dole invested in America, John McCain fought for his country, Mitt Romney opened a tax shelter in Bermuda."

Who would have thought I ever would have missed Bob Dole?

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Gary Johnson Effect in NC?

It's Only 4.6 Cents

Let's Start the Rumor of Romney Stepping Down

GOTV Approaches, Maybe Both Are OK (with poll)

Maybe Indiana? (with poll)

Unsolicted Advice for the President

Long Days Ahead for Romney

Oh Crap, you mean there's a convention?

What they really don't like is insurance

Ryan, The Last Minute VP

Calling George H. W. Bush

Bob Dole's Investments in 96