Tonight's episode features the fake Donald J. Trump. The one that on rare occasion reads from a teleprompter without slurring, swallowing his dentures, T-Rexing a water bottle, and using one of the best memories of all time to say the best words. He will perform the job that he always said was the easiest - “acting” Presidential.
I expect most media outlets to issue A's and B's, and invite pundits to gush and admire how he hit it out of the park. However, we must refute the new low bar of presidential exceptions. Journalists need to remember this is just performance. Delivering words written by others that he does not believe and may even understand.
Remember the real Trump. The one that riffs on NFL sons of bitches, crooked Hillary's emails, conspiracies about the deep state, that a child molester is a worthy senate candidate, or taunting little rocket man. Tonight, he may sound measured in tone. Compare this to real Trump on display year round. The one that hurls insults at campaign rallies. The one that trolls women and minorities on Twitter. What we are watching tonight is the Fake Trump. Even his supporters will struggle to find the offensive alpha leader they love to cheer.
Going beyond the fake presidential persona, there is a speech to review. This is not the State of the Trump, but of the Uniom (sic). The only known truth about tonight speech is the words delivered will not be the truth.
The economy is not suddenly booming or accelerating, it’s been growing steadily for several years. There were in fact fewer jobs created in Trump's first year than in Obama's last year. GDP is up by about .5%, which is mostly tied to gains in the financial markets, not the broader economy. GDP is not at the 5% or 6% as Trump promised. It is not even at 3%, which Trump ridiculed as an Obama failure. The unemployment rate fell about nearly 1% last year. It has fallen on average nearly 1% every year for 6 years. Remember Trump’s favorite Fox News stat: that 95 million Americans are still not in the labor force. African American unemployment has not fallen faster than regular unemployment - disproving the claim that current policy is specifically solving minority unemployment, which is still double that of white workers.
For all the claims of rising stocks and GDP, there is no new significant job growth or wage increases. Wealth is not created with one time bonuses. Companies have announced payouts (in between layoff notices) that in most cases amount to 1% of their new tax windfall and are keeping the other 99% for their executives or shareholders. The rising numbers only show wealth being created at Wall Street banks and international markets. That does not mean a thing to workers on Main Street in rural communities. 2/3 of all Americans don’t contribute to 401K plans. Less than 19% own individual stocks. For the majority of Americans, markets gains mean zero. For those that do have savings, at best the recent gains will only be tangible years from now, when those workers retire. However, it's also inevitable that before then, there will be market corrections and bubbles deflated. Wealth will evaporate from many accounts, much like Trump's empty words.
The list of foreign policy setbacks are too numerous for this diary. In short,
- Afghanistan is more dangerous, with mass causalities just last week from multiple bombings
- ISIS continues to spread in several counties, including Yemen and Niger where US soldiers have been killed over the last year
- North Korea has increased missile testing
- Russian and Chinese influence is growing in places where Trump has surrendered U.S. authority.
Trump's responses have been to ridicule allies, further alienate adversaries, systematically reduce the power of the State Department and our influence at the UN. He has allowed military leaders to make decisions with less regard to collateral damage and civilian causalities, and now deploy more U.S. troops into dangerous theaters with less training.
Words missing from tonight’s SOTU will likely include needed proposals and solutions for gun violence, which continues to increase and now plague churches, schools and concert venues. Missing funding to combat the ongoing opioid crisis. Silence on increases in hate crimes, white nationalism, racism, sexual assault and abuse, and police violence.
Broken promises that will be ignored or glossed over will include:
- Naming China a currency manipulator and for trade violations
- Termination (or renegotiation) of Nafta and other "bad" trade deals
- Legislation or penalties that will prevent US jobs from being sent overseas in the future
- Getting tough on previous job exporters (while ignoring the new tax law rewards their past outsourcing with huge cuts)
- Real tax simplification and reform.
Contradictions will include:
- continued promises of a border wall with the bait & switch that American taxpayers must now pay for it
- that DACA kids will be taken care of with love while criminals are deported
- repealing (the already claimed repealed) Obamacare and touting it's unspecified cheaper and greater replacement
- building needed infrastructure without government spending
- rebuilding (or claiming already rebuilt) military with a small spending increase
While speeches of political spin and exaggeration have always been part of our history, expected and somewhat acceptable; the gross mischaracterizations, level of hyperbole and sheer hypocrisy of Trump is not.
His words are uniquely hollow. They hold no bond with the American people or even with the core tenants of his most loyal supporters. Promises made by this President last no longer than the echo created by them within the halls of Congress. They should be discarded as quickly as the applause does. To the extent they are reviewed, it should be to fact check the lies and expose them for what they are.
Trump proved It can be easy to con the public during a campaign with heated rhetoric, simple solutions, and unrealistic promises. It should be much more difficult to attempt a con about the past years economic and social realities in peoples jobs and communities. Let’s hope the media is not aiding the con by admiring a Trump performance and ignoring the words.
