Jalapeño Spice: 5 Democrats in Arizona

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Thursday September 22, 2011 · 10:51 AM PDT

2011/09/22 · 10:51

It's time for another potential Democratic gerrymander. Arizona is a state that Democrats will never get to gerrymander no matter what, because it redistricts with a bipartisan commission. If Democrats could gerrymander Arizona, though, they could easily draw three safe liberal Democratic seats plus two seats for moderate Dems Gabby Giffords and Ann Kirkpatrick. To see what this would entail, read past the fold.

sapelcovits

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Sunday September 18, 2011 · 2:54 PM PDT

2011/09/18 · 14:54

During the 111th Congress, Democrats held an 8-5 advantage in North Carolina's 13-member congressional delegation. During the 2010 elections, Bob Etheridge in the 2nd district was upset by Islamophobe Renee Ellmers, and several other Democrats in the delegation survived competitive races. However, Republicans gained control of redistricting after those elections, and drew a map which tried to make 10 of the state's 13 seats unwinnable for Democrats.

If Democrats had kept control of the legislature, they could have drawn a safer district for Etheridge, as well as slightly shoring up Heath Shuler and putting Democrat Larry Kissell in a district where his vote against health care reform would have put him in huge danger in a primary. Read on for more.

sapelcovits

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Sunday September 11, 2011 · 7:39 PM PDT

2011/09/11 · 19:39

Lately I've been drawing a lot of Democratic gerrymanders for states on the Eastern seaboard. This time I'm going to head out west to see what kind of damage Democrats could do if they had the trifecta (as they very nearly do). The answer: a fairly good deal. In what's a currently 4R 3D delegation, the Democrats could turn one Republican seat solidly blue and flip an additional seat from an R+ PVI to a D+ PVI.

More over the flip.

sapelcovits

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Saturday September 10, 2011 · 9:16 PM PDT

2011/09/10 · 21:16

Here is another map of what Democrats could do with congressional redistricting, this time in New Jersey. New Jersey redistricts with a bipartisan commission that has a tiebreaker, so no matter how many legislative seats they win, Democrats can't control redistricting. If they could, however, they could theoretically draw a map for 10 Democrats and 2 Republicans, a drastic improvement over the state's current 7 D-6 R delegation. These would not all be ultra-safe seats, they would require legitimate Democrat candidates running real campaigns, but they are Democratic-leaning enough that given those circumstances the Democrats should be able to win no problem.

sapelcovits

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Friday September 09, 2011 · 3:56 PM PDT

2011/09/09 · 15:56

Much like Virginia and Pennsylvania, Georgia is a state where Democrats could do serious damage if they controlled redistricting. Unfortunately, Republicans have an iron grip on Georgia and they will pass their own map. If Democrats controlled redistricting in Georgia though, the state's congressional delegation could theoretically be made up of 50% liberal Democrats...this in an ultra-conservative Deep South state which gave George W. Bush 58% of the vote in 2004!

More over the flip.

sapelcovits

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Wednesday September 07, 2011 · 6:33 PM PDT

2011/09/07 · 18:33

I recently drew maps of Indiana and Virginia which attempted to show what a possible Democratic gerrymander of those states could look like, even though Democrats won't get to draw the map in either state. Now I'm back with another state where Democrats won't draw the lines: Pennsylvania. Republicans picked up the governorship and State House in Pennsylvania and maintained their hold on the State Senate, so now they get to draw a hideous gerrymander minimizing the number of Democratic-held seats. Currently, Republicans hold a 12-7 advantage in the Pennsylvania delegation, and their map will likely attempt to reduce that even further to 12-6. However, in a perfect world where Democrats controlled Pennsylvania redistricting, it would be possible to draw a 12-6 map...the other way.

More over the fold.

sapelcovits

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Tuesday September 06, 2011 · 8:54 PM PDT

2011/09/06 · 20:54

The state of Virginia was an absolute bloodbath for Democrats in 2010. Tom Perriello, a relatively liberal Democrat sitting in a R+5 district that voted for McCain, narrowly went down, as did moderate Democrats Glenn Nye and Rick Boucher. Whereas Democrats had a 6-5 advantage in Virginia's congressional delegation in the 111th Congress, that dropped to a 8-3 disadvantage in the 112th. This in a state that Obama won.

Democrats will not have the chance to draw a map of their liking, because they can't get such a map passed in the Republican-held House of Delegates or signed by Governor Bob McDonnell (R). However, if Democrats could draw the map, it would be theoretically possible to not only replace all three losses from 2010, but to replace the two moderates who lost with progressives.

More below the fold.

sapelcovits

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Monday September 05, 2011 · 5:05 PM PDT

2011/09/05 · 17:05

Indiana redistricting has long been a done deal. Republicans controlled redistricting and used it to screw over Joe Donnelly, the last congressional Democrat holding down an R+ seat in Indiana. Of course, because this is Daily Kos Elections and we're nerds, it would be fun to speculate what kind of maps the Democrats would have drawn if they had been in power. The 2001-2011 map was drawn by Democrats, but it was arguably inefficient, as it wasted such valuable sources of votes as Fort Wayne and West Lafayette. Hence, I have decided to give a stab at drawing my own map. I tried to create three districts that would elect liberal Democrats and another where a moderate Democrat would have a strong advantage.

More over the flip.

sapelcovits

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Saturday August 20, 2011 · 4:08 PM PDT

2011/08/20 · 16:08

Redistricting tea leaves suggest Lynch and Keating will get placed together. However, this doesn't really make sense from a geographical perspective. Why? Well, currently there are four districts (MA-03, MA-04, MA-09, MA-10) dividing Southeast Massachusetts. In order to keep all incumbents in their districts, any map of Massachusetts will have to have districts that run down from Boston Metro to SE Massachusetts. If MA-09 is eliminated, MA-10 will have to pick up the slack by adding part of MA-09's portion of SE Mass, rather than adding area to the north. Hence, I drew a Democratic gerrymander that eliminates Lynch while keeping every other incumbent in their district, and Capuano's district replaces Lynch's in the cracking of Southeast Massachusetts.

More beneath the flip.

sapelcovits

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Thursday August 11, 2011 · 6:49 PM PDT

2011/08/11 · 18:49

UPDATE: I have updated the district descriptions to include a breakdown of how many people they include from each of the former districts, as well as percentages. This should give a good idea of which incumbents might run in each of these districts.

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Some time ago I posted a Massachusetts map on Swing State Project which was an attempt to eliminate John Tierney while protecting all other incumbents. This time I'm back with another map, but this one isn't a realistic guess of what might happen, rather a theoretical look at what districts would look like if drawn to keep similar areas together. The bad news about this map is that it screws over several incumbents and gives Republicans serious chances at several seats, but the good news is that it's more attractive than the current map and gives some communities such as SE Massachusetts (the areas around Routes 6 and 44) a better voice.

More below the flip.

sapelcovits

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Saturday May 28, 2011 · 10:29 PM PDT

2011/05/28 · 22:29

Unfortunately, the loss of a heavily Democratic state senate seat in Buffalo means that Democrats will not have full control over redistricting. They control the governorship and the Assembly by a wide margin, but the State Senate is controlled by Republicans. However, Democrats should still have leverage over the congressional map. The reason for that is that Republicans will want to gerrymander the State Senate districts in order to have a shot at keeping their majority, and because of that they'll have to play nice with the Democrats. If they don't, a court-drawn map would almost certainly cause Democrats to retake the State Senate. Unfortunately, a court map could have unfortunate consequences for Democrats at the congressional level...but the same could be said for Republicans.

For a possible map of Upstate New York congressional districts that a court might draw, read on.

sapelcovits

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Saturday May 21, 2011 · 11:39 PM PDT

2011/05/21 · 23:39

The sad reality of Georgia redistricting is that Republicans will be in control. Republicans control the state legislature, and in 2010, Georgia voters ignored Nathan Deal's sketchy ethics issues and voted for him over Roy Barnes by nearly double digits. That's why Democrats in Georgia probably can't expect many good things from redistricting. Judging from the brazen Republican gerrymander in the middle of the decade targeting John Barrow and Jim Marshall, it's clear that Republicans won't play nice this time around. Democrats need to prepare themselves for the worst.

For my best guess at what the congressional map might look like, read on.

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Jalapeño Spice: 5 Democrats in Arizona

North Carolina: Shoring up 8-5

Blue Colorado: 4 Dems, 2 Rep, 1 swing

Ten Democrats in New Jersey? Another Fantasymander

Georgia Fantasymander: 7-6-1

Another Dem Fantasy: Pennsylvania 12-6

VA Redistricting: Six Liberal Reps

4 D, 5 R map of Indiana

Massachusetts Anti-Lynch Gerrymander

A "Fair" Massachusetts Map (UPDATE: Bonus feature)

Buffalo buffalo Buffalo buffalo buffalo buffalo Buffalo buffalo: Upstate NY Court Redistricting

10-4 Georgia: A Republican Gerrymander