I know most will be consumed with the Mueller hearings later this morning, but, for those interested I finally found the time to write up an update on my ongoing series, Battleground Texas 2020.
First, in latest CBS/YouGov poll of the Texas primary, conducted from July 9-18th, Biden led the Texas Primary race with 27%. Harris and Warren topped the debate performers at 53% and 48% yet Biden and Beto still ranked in 1st and 2nd in voting preference; and Castro's strong debate didn't budge his low Texas polling.
Julián Castro's "I am the Texan in this race"
His bold claim earned wild cheers from his supporters after the debate, but polling hasn't backed that up. Yet.
"Castro’s numbers are virtually unchanged from previous polls, with the candidate polling at 4 percent. That’s better than his national numbers but it’s nonetheless bad news for him overall because it shows that his much-lauded performance in the first Democratic debate didn’t really improve his standing, even among the voters who likely know him best.
There are still six months until the first votes are cast, and if Castro continues to impress in debates, it might be enough to further establish him as a serious contender—but if he was counting on his first breakout to change his numbers, it hasn’t happened. The bottom line: The status quo is OK for O’Rourke, but pretty bad for Castro."
www.texasmonthly.com/...
While Castro legitimately argues his lack of name recognition hurts him in national polling, it's also true over the years Julián, and brother Joaquin, have received a large chunk of local media attention.
Some long-time Texas activists believe Julián may be suffering for his repeated refusal to run for state-wide office. That's possible.
Personally, I think it's more possible Castro demanding Democrats stand for decriminalizing border crossings played far better with the national press corps and Democratic activists than many of his home-state Democrats. Texas newspapers reported Castro's immigration policy was unpopular amongst Texas Democrats and Independents. One editorial defended Beto and threw shade at Castro by stating O'Rourke had a better pulse of his home state electorate after visiting all 254 counties. Ouch.
With all that said, I don't think we'll know the true state of the battle of the Texans until after the critical, Houston fall debate. The Texas media markets are already "proudly" plugging Houston as the first "real" debate of the campaign season and promising much "bigger" ratings. Texas always does things bigger, or so my friends tell me over and over :)
Beto's "I'm the only Texan in this race who visited all 254 counties"
This well-worn line from his 2018 race continues to earn wild cheers from his supporters, and his local polling has held up. So far.
While Beto's national poll numbers crashed and his 2nd quarter fundraising was pretty dismal, he still inspires a good deal of support from those who know him best. Beto polled at 17%, good for 2nd place in that CBS/YouGov poll.
"That’s 13 percentage points better than his average among early voting states, and it represents a few significant things for O’Rourke. One, it tells us that, despite a bad past month, his support in Texas didn’t take the same drubbing that it took nationally. Two, he has one important advantage over rivals like Buttigieg: an ability to actually win delegates.
But given that O’Rourke is largely irrelevant at the national level at this point, it’s hard to imagine that things could get worse for him over the next six months. His numbers in Texas have proved to be durable, even during a rough stretch. One can imagine that he’d be in a position to benefit, at least in Texas, if Biden faded from the top spot, or if Harris’s trajectory ends up being more like Buttigieg’s than Warren’s.
O’Rourke’s candidacy is a long shot at this point, and if his fundraising continues to dwindle, it gets even longer. But if he has a path to actually earning the nomination, it doesn’t run through Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, or Nevada. Rather, it’s through Texas on Super Tuesday, where a significant slice of our 228 delegates—more than the four earliest-voting states combined—could catapult him back to relevance. For now, O’Rourke’s narrow path to the White House goes through Texas."
www.texasmonthly.com/...
Full disclosure: I'm not part of Beto's campaign. Though I do support him, I heard about his internal numbers from 2 reporters friends who proved to be excellent sources during the 2018 race.
Beto's campaign's internals have him only 2 points behind Biden and earning a larger share of Texas delegates due to their micro-targeting. I don't have access to Biden's internals to compare but I will say the July CBS/YouGov 18-34 numbers appear low to me, too. They did miss the 2018 race so their Texas models aren't the most reliable.
I should note here, that Beto's early Senate campaign was often pilloried for suggesting pollsters were modeling for the wrong electorate. In fact, it's his "expand the electorate" argument that first brought Beto to my attention as that echoed Obama's original strategy which also challenged conventional wisdom and polling back in 2007.
Of note, in October 2018, I and some others here challenged Quinnipiac's Cruz +9 poll, even though it matched the Cruz campaign's claims. Even after early voting began to shatter all previous records, and Cruz and Quinnipiac adjusted for larger turnout, they both underestimated the final vote tally and margin. In large part due to the massive increase in 18-34 voters.
Don’t discount Bernie Sanders’ strong youth support
For Sanders supporters, I hear he's performing better than these most pollsters are catching due to 18-34 under-sampling. This is an age-group we need to monitory closely in every upcoming Texas poll.
While the national media tends to refer to the "sleeping giant" as the Latino vote in Texas, it was the record turnout of 18-34 year olds of all races and the landslide margins they provided for Democratic candidates up and down the ticket, that put the real fear in the TX GOP's eyes.
Most national Democrats tend to discount the impact of 18-34 votes in general elections, let alone primaries. Even some Texas Democratic Party leaders aren't convinced this demographic will show up in next year's primary.
Beto and Sanders' campaigns are betting 18-34 turnout will break previous primary records and my sources agree. Reminiscent of Obama 2008, it's a mistake to discount that record youth turnout could be a tipping point for this primary.
As the 18-34 share of electorate will be the determinative demographic for Democratic chances to make Texas competitive in the general, national pollsters better learn quick how to track them more accurately this cycle.
State of the 2020 Texas Primary
Texas moved up their primary to March 3rd, to be part of Super Tuesday. However, Texans will begin early voting the day after the February 3rd IOWA caucus and will end the day before the South Carolina primary. Typically early state losses impact candidates with "softer support" while winning candidate(s) can ride a momentum wave. However, I am not sure momentum will play as big a factor in Texas next year and here's why.
Since 2018's record-breaking turnout led to some awfully long lines and problem ballots, some urban and suburban county clerks are preparing to urge voters cast their ballots as early as possible in order to avoid late lines and clear up any ballot/registration issues. I expect this urging will suit many energized Texans chomping at the bit to get their say in the 2020 campaigns. The campaigns who focus on getting their supporters to the polls very early may be able to survive early state losses better than those who focus on traditional GOTV efforts. It's going to require some real strategy to game out the Texas primary, and yet I've only heard of 3 campaigns actively canvassing in that huge state. Beto, Sanders, and Warren.
Please do share if I missed your candidate is already fielding Texas organizers and I missed them. Also, if you would, share how they're approaching the early voting challenges.
My current prediction, subject to change, of course: Beto scores the most actual delegates. Sanders outperforms and slides past Warren.
If Beto's still high in Texas primary polls later this year, don’t be surprised if Harris strategically decides to let Beto, Warren and Sanders take care of keeping Biden's Texas haul low for her. She then would pour those resources into maximizing her California and southern state delegate hauls.
I don't see any other candidate in the delegate race here. Not yet anyway.
It’s too early to predict the Texas Senate primary race.
State of the 2020 Texas General Election
NBC/Marist's August 2018 +4 Cruz caught Beto closing the race to low single digits. Emerson's late October Cruz +3 polls, came closest to predicting the final 2.56pt margin so these are the two pollsters I'm watching closely for the primary and general.
Emerson, in particular, caught the big surge in 18-34 voters. The #1 key for any Democrat's chance to unseat Cornyn and flip Texas runs through this demographic which woke up with a roar in 2018.
Professor McDonald of the Election Project, and Dr. Rachel Bitecofer (who accurately predicted the big blue waves of 2017 and 2018), are predicting nation-wide record-breaking turnout for the 2020 general election. In Texas, GOPers have joined Democrats in telling local reporters and supporters alike, they're prepared for a "blue urban tsunami."
Cornyn's team is counting on Trump delivering a "red rural tsunami" which will counter the "blue urban tsunami." For this reason, do not expect Cornyn to distance at all himself from Trump. He's pouring money into registering every last GOP only suburban voter he can find, believing that's the real dog-fight. Yet, Texas Democrats feel very confident they can and will flip even more suburban counties.
Cornyn's campaign is preparing for 10 to 10.5 million turnout, a sharp increase over 2016 indeed. But, I’m hearing more than 11 million may vote in the Texas 2020 Presidential Election. For some comparison,
7.99 out of 13.6 million registered voters cast a ballot in 2012
8.96 out of 15 million registered voters cast a ballot in 2016
8.3 out of 16 million registered voters cast a ballot in 2018
Another unknown is what role the elimination of straight-ticket voting will play in 2020 races. In 2018, many down ballot local Dems greatly benefited from Beto's GOTV as new and casual users were urged to select straight-ticket Dem. Educating new and casual voters to fill out the full ballot has always been a challenge for Democrats.
Democrats have reason to hope for a Trump under-vote from certain GOP suburbs and a possible small rural Cornyn under-vote from the small group of Tea Parties who still rail at Cornyn.
A big question-mark will be what signal the Bushes send to their shrinking faithful within the TX GOP. In 2018, GWB held fundraisers for all GOPers except Ted Cruz. The Bushes not only snubbed Cruz, they sent out a late email hinting split ticket-voting. Most expect the nearly 500,000 Abbot/Beto voters to largely go for Cornyn. However, some will stay home as Cornyn grows more Trumpian by the day.
How many suburban voters will Cornyn alienate while kissing up to Trump? TBD.
How many Bush Republicans will come out and refuse to vote for Trump? TBD.
How many could actually cross-over? Depends on the Democratic Presidential nominee.
I have great respect for Dr. Bitecofer's partisan forecast model, but I don't believe we'll see her equal GOP and Dem surge in Texas. The greatest pool of untapped Texans are the 18-34 demographic and they lean 65+% Democratic. From all signs, they're going to obliterate their 2016 turnout numbers.
To those who think cutting 2016's 9point GOP margin is too big a hurdle in just 4 years, I'll remind you Obama closed the 2012 12+point margin in 2008 to flip North Carolina. He won one age group in NC, the 18-29 by 70+% landslide. And, hate to say it, but Trump closed a 9.5point margin to flip Michigan in 2016.
Chuck Todd, of all people, nailed the forecasting problem. Once early voting showed their old, reliable belle-weather Tarrant County looked to flip, the networks recognized a realignment was really possible in Texas. That's why networks waited for so much rural vote to come in before calling it for Cruz.
My bold prediction today: I don't think we'll have a call on Texas until after midnight EST on election night November 2020.
