(I wrote this up as a group email to a list of friends and fam today. Decided at the last second I might as well post it here, too, just for the hell of it.)
(Yes, I realize that most likely no one especially cares to hear my views, but I'm just gonna let it out anyway.
Mostly for me,... like the great Walter White.)
Anyone who knows me knows I'm surely not an optimist.
I've been overcome with terror, horror, and depression lately, about a lot of things, but partly, of course, about the state and direction of the country and the world.
In terms of the prospects for tomorrow's elections --which seem to me like they very well may signal the beginning of the end of the world if they go badly-- I've been awfully wary of accepting the cheery guarantees of a 'Huge Blue Wave' we've been constantly promised by vocal Dems for the last two years.
It has seemed to me very uncertain that the American populace is smart enough, attentive enough, decent enough, or concerned enough to really bring the votes to make that happen.
And it's also seemed entirely possible the 'Pubs would simply manage to steal the elections even if we did.
As time's gone by, and the country has steadily transformed into Nazi Germany day by day, and stakes have only gotten higher, the picture of what's likely to happen hasn't clarified all that much.
Yes, it's been clear there's a significant Dem advantage in the broad vote, but also that it's a horrifyingly narrow one --considering the big picture here-- and that there's no guarantee it's big enough to succeed.
It's become clear that that edge seems like it's big enough to imply a likely --but not at all certain-- Dem re-capture of the House (which, I think, is the bare minimum we need to have any decent chance to save the country), and also that it's very unlikely to imply a capture of the Senate (which, of course, would radically improve our chances of defeating the Nazis who are seizing control of the country).
It's still true that nobody knows how the actual vote will relate to the polls, or how extensive and successful Republican cheating is likely to be --and just how big a difference that may make.
Both factors could conceivably shift the outcome decisively, even if we did appear to have the votes we need.
The best assumption about polls is that they're usually fairly accurate (in aggregate), and if they're not, it's tough to know which way their error will fall, and it's therefore smart to assume they're most likely fairly accurate, and to try and factor them into your judgments and choices.
I've obsessively watched the 538 poll averages in recent weeks --like lots of other people-- and been quite discouraged about Dem chances of retaking the Senate. I'm sort of assuming we will win the House (though it's nowhere near a guarantee),... partly because it's simply too horrible to contemplate what will happen if we don't,... but also because the statistical case looks pretty good, and I think it will probably be harder to steal as many races as the 'Pubs would have to in order to avert it,... and the 'Pubs themselves seem mostly resigned to it.
(It looks like they expect to lose, and I'm hoping they're right.)
The Senate has looked like a real long-shot, and as Nate Silver's odds have dropped to the 15% range, I've mostly given up hope.
Here's the thing, though. A couple of things have changed in the last few days, and they've compelled me to re-think this a little.
First off: Nevada. If you've read the analysis by local political reporter Ralston, he makes a fairly convincing case that Jacky Rosen has probably already won there, and may even end up winning by a decent margin --in spite of the fact that poll-averages have put her steadily a bit behind for almost the whole last month.
If he's right, as I think (and hope) he probably is, and she ends up winning by two points, let's say, that'll look to me like an indication that something has happened to move the vote a fair distance from where it seemed to be just a short time ago. Whether that something is an actual last-second shift in voter sentiment, or, more likely, just a hint that polling models really have underestimated Dem turnout, I have no idea, and I'm not gonna worry about it.
The point is that it looks like reality may look better than the polls have told us --and IF that's the case, I have to think it's most likely true in the rest of the country too, rather than something endemic to NV alone.
IF that's the case, and the broad vote does turn out to be, say, 2 or 3 points more Dem-heavy than it seemed, that's gonna do a whole bunch of really good things.
It'll probably turn a decent win in the House into a huge one --one big enough to signal a major repudiation and real smack-upside-the-head to Nazis across the country (and world, really)--
and it'll probably also mean the lion's share of those brutally-close Governor's races fall the way of the angels --which would be massively important in uncountable ways.
Most of all, however, it'd significantly change the math on the analysis of the prospects in the Senate --and that's the part that really excites me.
I've been framing it for weeks in a simpler (and I'd say much smarter) way than most of the gibbering TV pundits you hear. There are five really close races we HAVE to win, just to get to 50 seats,... and then one more we HAVE to win to get a majority.
The five are FL, IN, MO, AZ, and NV. ALL have been near dead-heats for a long while now. The odds of winning 5 of 5 *coin-flips,* given random fluctuation and margins of error, are really slim.
If, however, it turns out the actual numbers in all of these races are one, or two, or three points more favorable than they seemed, there's a pretty good shot we could, in fact, win all five.
The inside early-vote stuff from NV has led me to feel that's actually pretty likely,... and the polling averages in those states have shifted a bit in the last couple days in support of that feeling,
538 now shows a Dem lead in all five. If Nate's numbers were perfectly correct, we win 'em all.
They probably won't be, of course, but if the baseline is 2 points better than it seemed a short time ago, Nate doesn't have to be perfect, just pretty close.
(And it helps a lot that NV looked like the least favorable of the five,... and it seems like we may have already won there.)
Looking at their Senate map this afternoon, and recognizing that it really seemed to me for the first time that we may have a pretty good shot to win all five of the tight ones, compelled me to dig a little deeper than I have so far, and take a slightly harder statistical look at the next logical step: Could we actually have a reasonable chance to somehow snag that extra seat, and win the big prize??
Until the last few days, I really thought the chance was quite slim. The three 'reach' races --TX, TN, and ND-- have all shown the Dem consistently behind --by a range of, say, 4 to 8 points-- for a long stretch now. Some statistical adjustment, and the distributions and margins of error they calculate at 538, have led Nate's team to guess that those data-points leave the Dems in those states with a 1-in-4 or 1-in-5 chance to overcome those apparent deficits and pull out a win.
Those seem like crappy odds. That's why nobody serious has seemed to think there's much of a chance for a Dem Senate victory.
Again, though, if the broad vote is a couple points better than it seems, those odds would shift quite a lot. When a 5-point lead is actually only 2 or 3, the numbers look a lot different.
Let's say the more-realistic odds on these races are actually closer to 1-in-3 than 1-in-4, or 1-in-5.
Now, it becomes a classic old SAT-II probability question. You're shooting hoops with your pal, and he bets you a cool hundred bucks you can't hit one from behind the 3-point line.
You know from experience that you can shoot about 1 in 3, uncovered, from that range. Your pal says he'll give you 3 tries, and you've only gotta sink one.
How good a bet is this to take?
You're a pretty smart guy, but you never paid much attention in Prob-Stat (and besides, it's been 40 years). You're supposed to be able to calculate it directly, but you don't remotely remember the Binomial Theorem, so you're pretty much left to your wits.
A little common sense goes a long way.
You realize there's lots of ways you can win this bet. You can hit the first shot, or the second, or the third, or the second AND the third, etc. You're way too tired to try and evaluate the chances of all those different outcomes, and besides, there's only 60 seconds left on your test. (Or your hoops-buddy has to get home for dinner, so he needs a quick answer.)
Laziness, necessity, and something you picked in Philosophy class in 1981 nudge you in the right direction: Always Invert.
How 'bout this: If it's too tough to figure out your chance of winning, then don't. Figure out your chance of losing instead. There's lots of ways you can win this bet, but lo and behold, there's only one stinking way you can lose: you've gotta miss all three shots.
That's a breeze. It's a simple coin-flip question. 2 in 3 odds you'll miss each time. Chance to do that 3 times in a row? 2 in 3 cubed. 2/3 x 2/3 x2/3. That's 8/27. We'll round that to 30%.
If your chance of losing is 30% --hello-- your chance of winning is 70%. 70% ain't too shabby.
IF my premise --that the broad vote is likely to be two points better than it has seemed till now-- is correct,... and my very rough guess that that might shift those 'reach' odds to more like 1 in 3 is in the right ballpark,... then I can make a very reasonable case we've got an even shot to win the Senate.
An excellent chance to win all 5 of the close ones,... and a pretty good chance to grab ONE of the dicier three. Add that all up, and it's something like 50/50. Maybe a little better, I'd say.
ALL of this may be wrong. The premise may evaporate tomorrow night when we start to get returns, or it could turn out it's fairly true, but not consistent enough across the land to bring all the wins we need.
And, of course --giant, screaming caveat-- even if it's ALL exactly right, there's still a very real chance that the Republi-Scum will manage to steal one or two of those races from us anyway, and that will kill it all.
I am HOPING that their theft-efforts this time have been limited and clumsy enough that they're unlikely to overcome the raw-vote margins we'll garner --but obviously that may be wishful thinking.
I'm allowing myself a little wishful thinking at this point, I guess, because otherwise human history will draw much closer to its conclusion tomorrow,… and I'd really prefer that not be the case.
Anyway, I'm significantly more hopeful that we win the big prize than I have been in a long time. It's probably unjustified, but it's something to hang your coat on for a moment.
I hope everyone votes tomorrow, if you haven't already. I hope everyone with kids or friends from 18 to 35 has beaten them repeatedly about the head and shoulders to the point that they've voted, or will vote tomorrow, and have taken 2 or 3 young friends along with them.
I hope there's a God. I hope we get lucky. I hope this country's just slightly less pathetically stupid and evil than it appears to be.
I hope tomorrow night, America still looks like incipient Nazi Germany, c. 1935 --which is horrible, to be sure-- and NOT like fully-developed Nazi Germany, c. 1939 --which is horribly worse-- and which we're rapidly gonna morph into if this thing goes bad.
‘35 might just still be reversible. There ain't no coming back from ‘39.
Sorry for venting so long.
Good luck to us all. Man, do we need it.
P.S. Beto, I am pullin' for ya, Man, like I haven't pulled for anyone in a long time. I wanna believe you just might have a shot to pull this off. If you can do it, you're Number One Savior in an instant.
Make it happen, Baby. Please, please, please,.…
(*** Late Monday update: Everything I said this afternoon looks more true now.
There’s *lots* of evidence things are moving in the right direction, and are probably much closer than they looked (in the Senate, that is).
I really think Nate’s now-19% shot might realistically be adjusted to more like 50.
I guess we’ll have some idea this time tomorrow.
Fingers crossed. To paraphrase the great Jason Robards as the great Ben Bradlee: there’s nothing much riding on this,… except the government, the Constitution, the survival of American democracy, and the fate of the world and the human race.
That’s all.
Good night, everyone.)