Whenever something does not go according to plan, you need to determine lessons learned. What did not go according to plan, and more importantly — why?
Let’s start while it is still fresh in everyone’s mind and shift to what we can do to make things better.
#1 — Admit that things did not go according to plan.
Seems simple enough, but “See, Biden won! All is well!” is a recipe for future disasters. It is called ignoring a near miss.
Most people think of “near misses” as harrowing close calls that could have been a lot worse—when a firefighter escapes a burning building moments before it collapses, or when a tornado miraculously veers away from a town in its path. Events like these are rare narrow escapes that leave us shaken and looking for lessons.
But there’s another class of near misses, ones that are much more common and pernicious. These are the often unremarked small failures that permeate day-to-day business but cause no immediate harm. People are hardwired to misinterpret or ignore the warnings embedded in these failures, and so they often go unexamined or, perversely, are seen as signs that systems are resilient and things are going well. Yet these seemingly innocuous events are often harbingers; if conditions shift slightly, or if luck does not intervene, a crisis erupts.
hbr.org/…
#2 — Admit that the polls missed
There are several here in our community who do not believe that the polls were wrong in 2016. They were. The pollsters admit they were wrong. They tweaked their methodologies.
There were multiple posts and articles on “If the polls are off as much as 2016, Biden still wins”. The point being, the premise is that the poll was off.
This year, the polls missed again — outside of their margin of error. There was a diary on the rec list yesterday pointing to a Pinellas County, Florida poll showing Biden winning 54/44 and predicting a Biden win of Florida. The poll MOE was 2.5%. It missed almost double that. As I write this Biden 49.4, Trump 49.2 with 93% in.
Michigan was +8 at 538. Emerson was +7 with a 3.4 MOE. Missed. Ipsos +10 with a 4.4 MOE. Missed.
#3 — Polls have no idea who will show up to vote
They don’t. Never have, never will. They are opinion polls, snapshots in time. IF, and only if, the actual turnout matches the poll, then the results SHOULD be within the MOE.
#4 — Polls are not really predictive
Simply because they have no idea who will show up to vote. It is like checking for elevated white counts in a blood test to screen for colon cancer.
#5 — Models suck
538 gave the Steelers a 40% chance of winning against the Ravens. Steelers won by 4. Do you think the Steelers looked at the models and point spread and said, “We are going to lose.”? Ravens said, “We got this!” Hurricane models can miss tracks by 500 miles. The weather is fickle. Human behavior — sports or elections — is very difficult to predict. Don’t play Russian Roulette.
#6 — You can’t ignore the polling margin of error
The MOE exists for a reason. Projecting — and getting your hopes up — that someone will win because the polls are +3, while ignoring the MOE of +/- 5% is prone to failure. Going forward, any projection should include the MOE. If a candidate is within the MOE, you have to work even harder to get them across the finish line.
#7 — Most polls rely on people answering the phone.
In the middle of dinner or other possibly inconvenient time, from a number that they don’t know, it could be a scammer, and tell a complete stranger exactly what you are thinking.
If a voting segment does not answer the phone, their opinions will not be factored into the results.
One week before the [2016] election, Monmouth University reported that Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton held a four-point lead in Pennsylvania — with a slim Clinton lead in the Philadelphia area and a slim Trump lead in the Pittsburgh area. In the central, rural part of the state, Murray estimated that Trump had a 13-point lead.
When the dust settled, the dominoes fell as Murray had predicted — except in that central, rural expanse. There, Trump had a 26-point lead, double Murray's projections.
"It's not that they lied to us. They didn’t even pick up the phones," Murray said. "They didn’t even tell their own family members who they were voting for. And if that’s the case, what drove them to the polls?"
www.app.com/…
The entire polling industry will need to rethink its approach, having missed twice.
#8 — Look at the polling internals, not just the top line number
Polls do provide information on how messaging efforts are working or not working. They provide both opportunities and warning signs.
The last Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll:
Overall:
- Nov 2019: 52/43 Biden +9
- Oct 2020: 51/44 Biden +7 ← wrong direction
Q4 Trump job approval:
- Nov 2019: 40/56 -16
- Oct 2020: 43/51 -8 <-— WTH — job approval improved with pandemic?????
Q10: Enthusiasm Trump: Very 79%/Somewhat 18%
Q11: Enthusiasm Biden: Very 51%/Somewhat 39% ← The not Trump vote
Q13: # 1 Issue
- Economy: 27% ← Trump hitting hard, Biden not so much
- Coronavirus: 20%
- Health Care: 18%
- Law and Order 12%
Q15: Vote in person 62%/Vote mail 35%.
Q17: Election Threat
- Foreign Interference: Feb 2020 — 17%, Oct 2020 — 8%
- Voter Fraud: Feb 2020 — 25%, Oct 2020 — 40% <--— Trump psyops worked
Q18: Supreme Court expansion
- Agree 35%, Disagree 46%, Not sure 20% <-— work to do
Q22: Vote in 2016
- Trump: 40% <--— missing Trump voters
- Clinton: 41%
- Other: 5% <-— about right for 3rd party
- Did not vote: 14% <-— good for Dems???? Trump voters with regret?
Crosstabs:
- Trump job:
- White 50% Approve/45% disapprove
- Non-college 45/50 <-— changed Trump voter or missing Trump voter???
- Mail ballot 16/78 <-— Mostly Dem? Bad if ballots not returned/rejected
- In Person 58/35 <-— Some Dem
- Trump v Biden
- Female: 37/58 ← good
- Independent: 26/57 ← good
- No college: 49/48 ← so disapprove of job but voting anyway?
- Philly suburbs: 35/55/11
- Northeast: 55/39 ← Biden home, not good
- The ‘T’: 53/41/6 ← turnout here will be key
- 30-64: 51/45
Other polls showed more Democratic voters going for Trump than Republican voters going for Biden. Despite everything Trump has done, his approval is where it has been for the past 3 years. That was a warning sign too.
The #1 issue for voters in multiple polls was the economy, not COVID. Here in PA, 75-80% of ads and news coverage were COVID related. 75-80% of Trump ads and news coverage was lies about the economy.
Democrats have the best economic message that resonates with wallet issue voters. No ads in PA about Trump’s job losses. No ads about Trump’s deals for workers that fell through. Steel mills that did not reopen as promised. Trump is an economic disaster, but he sold his scams and it mostly worked.
#9 — Missing the real enemy
Trump is a useful idiot and loud mouth who is a great carnival barker and snake oil salesman. McConnell is a puppet.
The ones calling the shots are the conservative elites. The dark money funding the Federalist Society and Judicial Crisis Network. The ones who told Republicans in Congress, “Give us tax cuts, or else.” “Give us Barrett, or else.”
They are greedy. They want power. They want all the money for themselves. We have seen this before.
The conservative elite were the old ruling class and new business class in Weimar Germany. Throughout the 1920s they became increasingly frustrated with the Weimar Republic’s continuing economic and political instability, their lack of real power and the rise of communism. They believed that a return to authoritarian rule was the only stable future for Germany which would protect their power and money.
The conservative elite’s second move towards authoritarian rule was helping the Nazi Party to gain power. The conservative elite and the Nazi Party had a common enemy – the political left.
As Hitler controlled the masses support for the political right, the conservative elite believed that they could use Hitler and his popular support to ‘democratically’ take power. Once in power, Hitler could destroy the political left. Destroying the political left would help to remove the majority of political opponents to the ring-wing conservative elite.
Once Hitler had removed the left-wing socialist opposition and destroyed the Weimar Republic, the conservative elite thought they would be able to replace Hitler, and appoint a leader of their choice.
www.theholocaustexplained.org/…
Of course, Hitler had other ideas and their plan failed catastrophically. But the conservative elites and Hitler were aligned in their disdain for democracy. And they see Trump as a more useful idiot.
Mein Kampf:
It is not the aim of our present-day Democracy to form an assemblage of wise men, but rather to collect together a crowd of subservient nonentities who can easily be lead in certain definite directions, especially if the intelligence of each individual of them is limited. Only thus can the game of party politics be played in its unhealthy present-day sense. But it also makes it possible for the real wire-pullers to remain safely in the background, with no possibility of ever being made personally responsible.
A fascist oligarchy. That is the true enemy lurking behind the scenes. The wire-pullers. Democracy is a barrier to their control. A functioning government is a hindrance to their profiteering.
Republicans in Congress are puppets. Our focus needs to be on the wire-pullers and their goals. We need to communicate much more effectively how that harms 95% of Americans. Expose them and their puppets.
#10 — Psychological Warfare
That is the war we are fighting, and Republicans are mostly winning.
This much more than lies. It is purposeful manipulation of belief systems. Think subliminal advertising. It has literally brainwashed tens of millions of Americans. They are a destructive cult.
The Cult of Trump: A Leading Cult Expert Explains How the President Uses Mind Control
Since the 2016 election, Donald Trump’s behavior has become both more disturbing and yet increasingly familiar. He relies on phrases like, “fake news,” “build the wall,” and continues to spread the divisive mentality of us-vs.-them. He lies constantly, has no conscience, never admits when he is wrong, and projects all of his shortcomings on to others. He has become more authoritarian, more outrageous, and yet many of his followers remain blindly devoted. Scott Adams, the creator of Dilbert and a major Trump supporter, calls him one of the most persuasive people living. His need to squash alternate information and his insistence of constant ego stroking are all characteristics of other famous leaders—cult leaders.
In The Cult of Trump, mind control and licensed mental health expert Steven Hassan draws parallels between our current president and people like Jim Jones, David Koresh, Ron Hubbard, and Sun Myung Moon, arguing that this presidency is in many ways like a destructive cult. He specifically details the ways in which people are influenced through an array of social psychology methods and how they become fiercely loyal and obedient. Hassan was a former “Moonie” himself, and he presents a “thoughtful and well-researched analysis of some of the most puzzling aspects of the current presidency, including the remarkable passivity of fellow Republicans [and] the gross pandering of many members of the press” (Thomas G. Gutheil, MD and professor of psychiatry, Harvard Medical School).
The Cult of Trump is an accessible and in-depth analysis of the president, showing that under the right circumstances, even sane, rational, well-adjusted people can be persuaded to believe the most outrageous ideas. “This book is a must for anyone who wants to understand the current political climate” (Judith Stevens-Long, PhD and author of Living Well, Dying Well).
www.amazon.com/…
A good summary here:
www.psychologytoday.com/...
They manufacture fear and outrage with lies, but use ‘trusted’ sources to spread it. This is called undue influence. The goal is to keep individuals in the lower two levels in Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs. There individual critical thinking is suppressed, making them more susceptible to even more manipulation. Tribalism sets in.
And then Republicans set themselves up as the savior who will rescue them and protect them from these manufactured fears.
They are drug dealers selling snake oil to their addicted cult followers.
Democrats need to understand this. They need a plan to counter message against it. We cannot save everyone, but we absolutely need to rescue those on the fringe AND prevent others from falling for their BS.
#11 — The media and social media
The media simply does not understand linguistics and propaganda. Or they do and are complicit in its spread.
They repeat Trump’s lies, especially in headlines. They repeat the details of the lies in the first few paragraphs, saving the fact check for later on.
Donald Trump has been a salesman for nearly half a century. He is now selling himself, his worldview and his self-serving views of the law and the truth. His principal tools are language and the media. By faithfully transmitting Trump’s words and ideas, the press helps him to attack, and thereby control, the press itself.
Language works by activating brain structures called “frame-circuits” used to understand experience. They get stronger when we hear the activating language. Enough repetition can make them permanent, changing how we view the world.
Scientists, marketers, advertisers and salespeople understand these principles. So do Russian and Islamic State hackers. But most reporters and editors clearly don’t. So the press is at a disadvantage when dealing with a super salesman with an instinctive ability to manipulate thought by 1) framing first, 2) repeating often and 3) leading others to repeat his words by getting people to attack him within his own frame.
blogs.berkeley.edu/…
Hitler and the conservative elite needed to control most media outlets. Today, they only need a free social media platform — Facebook — and Fox News. To a lesser extent, RW media such as Rush.
Facebook is a sickly host that enables super-spreading of disinformation. Delivery is enhanced through their algorithms. Zuckerberg appears to be in on it. He profits directly by selling disinformation. Cracking down on disinformation would alienate ~40% of the US users. So he only offers token challenges to the most egregious posts.
We witnessed what Facebook does to our neighbors with the COVID crisis. Conspiracy treated as fact. Fauci does not know what he is doing but Trump and Atlas do.
But consider: this is the tip of the iceberg of the disinformation flowing on other policy issues — policies being pushed by the oligarchs. Remember — this is psyops.
Summary
Democrats need much more effective messaging to combat this disinformation quickly. They need to understand psychological warfare, linguistics and propaganda. They need to do better at reframing issues. They need to push the media to stop repeating the disinformation.
Otherwise, the future is bleak. Messaging controls belief systems. It is what pushes people to vote against their own interest, to accept and defend the word of a con artist and be repeatedly duped by scam after scam.
The tobacco industry used psyops to convince people that smoking was cool, while denying they were manipulating nicotine and ignoring the health risks. The fossil fuel industry used it to plant doubts about climate change.
Expose the con artists and their scams — and the wire-pullers. Connect with people where they are and help them on the issues that are important to them.
That is how we win bigger.