Being from Georgia originally, I've been personally insulted by the number of diaries on the 2006 races that ignore Georgia as having potential wins for the Democratic party. This seems to come from the fact that Georgia is viewed as being positively glowing red.
The Democratic party seems to feel this way as well, and while I was helping my brother campaign for a slot as a Democratic candidate for District 9, I was met with much resistance from Dems on even bothering to run in such a perceived red area. This reluctance to even try is part of what led to my brother dropping out of the race. We were only able to raise $30 from sources here at Kos. I was extremely disappointed that so-called "progressives" would be so easily scared away from a fight in a red state. Especially when the redness isn't as prevalent as you have been led to believe. Don't believe me? Follow along and you will see.
More below...
Georgia has been quietly trending towards Democrats since George W. Bush first took office. Don't let the presidential election results alone shape your opinion. Although Georgians did vote against Kerry in greater numbers than against Gore, they continue to move towards Democrats for their representation in Congress.
Bush's approval ratings provide an interesting line against which to compare. I use the results of the Faux News/Opinion Dynamics Poll to remain "fair and balanced" since it gives Bush higher numbers than other polls, and for the belief that the opinions of voters in the South will be more accurately reflected by this poll than those of more "liberal" pollsters.
If we look at Bush's approval ratings in the last Fox News poll just prior to each of the last 2 congressional elections, we see that Bush's approval dropped 13% from the 2002 elections through the 2004 elections. Democrats picked up one Georgia Congressional District (12) in 2004, despite Bush winning the election. Now compare the latest Fox News poll from May 2nd/3rd to his October 2004 rating and he has dropped 9% and it's not even October yet. If Bush's numbers stay at this level or continue to drop with the same pace and the trends in Georgia's congressional election behavior continue, it is quite likely that Democrats may be able to pick up a seat or two in Georgia.
Also interesting to note from the Faux Poll, is the fact that Republicans are increasingly disappointed with Bush's ability to do the job.
Bush Job Approval Ratings |
Republicans | 68% | 23% | 9% |
Democrats% | 6% | 88% | 6% |
Independents% | 32% | 55% | 13% |
This also bodes well for Democrats running in heavily Republican areas of the country. If Republican voters aren't motivated to head to the polls in November, being disappointed in the performance of their presidential choice, Democrats stand to have a much higher turnout and make gains in truly surprising areas, Georgia being one of them.
Everyone is familiar with the national totals for the last two Presidential elections, but lets take a look at Georgia alone.
2000 Presidential Vote Totals for State: |
AL GORE | (D) | 1,116,230 | 43.2 % |
GEORGE BUSH | (R) | 1,419,720 | 55.0 % |
HARRY BROWNE | (Lib) | 36,332 | 1.4 % |
PAT BUCHANAN | (Ind) | 10,926 | 0.4 % |
Total Votes: | | 2,583,208 | |
Gore Loss Margin: | | 303,490 | |
Election Data From: GA Secretary of State |
2004 Presidential Vote Totals for State: |
GEORGE BUSH | (R) | 1,914,256 | 58.0 % |
JOHN KERRY | (D) | 1,366,155 | 41.4 % |
MICHAEL BADNARIK | (Lib) | 18,387 | 0.6 % |
Total Votes: | | 3,298,798 | |
Kerry Loss Margin: | | 548,101 | |
Election Data From: GA Secretary of State |
Bush won Georgia both times. With 11.8% more votes than Gore and with 16.6% more votes than Kerry. But georgia was hardly the worst defeat for Kerry amongst the states. In fact, Georgia is only the 16th worst. Hardly glowing red.
2004 Bush Percentage of Vote: |
Rank: | State: | Percent: |
1 | Utah | 71.1% |
2 | Wyoming | 69.0% |
3 | Idaho | 68.5% |
4 | Nebraska | 66.1% |
5 | Oklahoma | 65.6% |
6 | North Dakota | 62.9% |
7 | Alabama | 62.5% |
8 | Kansas | 62.2% |
9 | Alaska | 61.8% |
10 | Texas | 61.2% |
11 | Indiana | 60.1% |
12 | South Dakota | 59.9% |
13 | Mississippi | 59.6% |
14 | Kentucky | 59.5% |
15 | Montana | 59.1% |
16 | Georgia | 58.1% |
Vote Data From: USA Today |
Georgia turned out an additional 715,590 voters in 2004. Bush earned 494,536 more votes in Georgia in 2004 than he did in 2000. Kerry earned 249,925 more votes in Georgia in the 2004 election than Gore did in the 2000 election, although he lost by a greater margin. Bush defeated Kerry by 548,101 votes and Gore by 303,490, a difference of 244,611 votes.
It's possible that Gore's popularity in Georgia amongst swing voters was influenced by familiarity with him for his years as Congressman and Senator in Tennessee. North Georgians in particular were aware of Gore, as most major broadcast television and larger newspapers in this area come out of Tennessee, mainly from Chattanooga.
In 2000, Democrats held 3 out of 11 Congressional seats or about 27% of seats. Georgia was redistricted in 2001.
2002 Congressional Candidate Vote by District: |
District: | Name: | Votes: |
01 | Jack Kingston (R) | 103,661 |
| Don Smart (D) | 40,026 |
| Total: | 143,687 |
|
02 | Sanford D. Bishop, Jr. (D) | 102,925 |
| Total: | 102,925 |
|
03 | Calder Clay (R) | 73,866 |
| Jim Marshall (D) | 75,394 |
| Total: | 149,260 |
|
04 | Cynthia Van Auken (R) | 35,202 |
| Denise L. Majette (D) | 118,045 |
| Total: | 153,247 |
|
05 | John Lewis (D) | 116,259 |
| Total: | 116,259 |
|
06 | Johnny Isakson (R) | 163,525 |
| Jeff Weisberger (D) | 41,204 |
| Total: | 204,729 |
|
07 | John Linder (R) | 138,997 |
| Mike Berlon (D) | 37,124 |
| Total: | 176,121 |
|
08 | Mac Collins (R) | 142,505 |
| A. Petrakopoulos (D) | 39,422 |
| Total: | 181,927 |
|
09 | Charlie Norwood (R) | 123,313 |
| Barry Irwin (D) | 45,974 |
| Total: | 169,287 |
|
10 | Nathan Deal (R) | 129,242 |
| Total: | 129,242 |
|
11 | Phil Gingrey (R) | 69,427 |
| Roger Kahn (D) | 65,007 |
| Total: | 134,434 |
|
12 | Max Burns (R) | 77,479 |
| Champ Walker (D) | 62,904 |
| Total: | 140,383 |
|
13 | Clay Cox (R) | 47,405 |
| David Scott (D) | 70,011 |
| Total: | 117,416 |
|
Rep: 1,104,622 | Dem: 814,295 | Total: 1,918,917 |
Election Data From: House.gov |
From 2001's redistricting, Georgia gained 2 House seats and the 2002 Congressional elections ended with Democrats picking up 2 seats to hold 5 out of 13 seats or 38.5%. Districts 2, 3, 4, 5, and 13. Republican candidates earned a statewide total of 290,327 more votes than Democratic candidates.
2004 Congressional Candidate Vote by District: |
District: | Name: | Votes: |
01 | Jack Kingston (R) | 188,347 |
| Total: | 188,347 |
|
02 | Dave Eversman (R) | 64,645 |
| Sanford D. Bishop, Jr. (D) | 129,984 |
| Total: | 194,629 |
|
03 | Calder Clay (R) | 80,435 |
| Jim Marshall (D) | 136,273 |
| Total: | 216,708 |
|
04 | Catherine Davis (R) | 89,509 |
| Cynthia McKinney (D) | 157,461 |
| Total: | 246,970 |
|
05 | John Lewis (D) | 201,773 |
| Total: | 201,773 |
|
06 | Tom Price (R) | 267,542 |
| Write-in | 77 |
| Total: | 267,619 |
|
07 | John Linder (R) | 258,982 |
| Total: | 258,982 |
|
08 | Lynn Westmoreland (R) | 227,524 |
| Silvia Delamar (D) | 73,632 |
| Total: | 301,156 |
|
09 | Charlie Norwood (R) | 197,869 |
| Bob Ellis (D) | 68,462 |
| Total: | 266,331 |
|
10 | Nathan Deal (R) | 219,136 |
| Total: | 219,136 |
|
11 | Phil Gingrey (R) | 120,696 |
| Rick Crawford (D) | 89,591 |
| Total: | 210,287 |
|
12 | Max Burns (R) | 105,132 |
| John Barrow (D) | 113,036 |
| Total: | 218,168 |
|
13 | David Scott (D) | 170,657 |
| Total: | 170,657 |
|
Rep: 1,819,817 | Dem: 1,140,869 | Total: 2,960,763 |
Election Data From: House.gov |
Due to the Presidential election, there were 1,041,846 more votes cast for Congressional candidates in 2004 than in 2000. Democrats saw an overall increase of 326,574 votes, while Republicans saw an increase of 715,195 votes. Republican candidates earned 678,948 more votes than Democratic candidates. Republicans increased their voter turnout by 388,621 more than Democrats.
The 2004 Congressional elections gave District 12 to the Democrats. Democrats are now holding 6 out of 13 seats or 46%. Districts 2, 3, 4, 5, 12, and 13.
In 2 election cycles, (and with the help of the 2001 redistricting) Democrats increased their percentage of Georgia's Congressional seats from 27% to 46%. This despite Republicans turning out more voters for the Presidential election in 2004 and Bush defeating Kerry by a wider margin than he defeated Gore.
2006 Qualified Candidates and Funds Raised: |
District: | Name: | Fund: | Website: |
01 | Jack Kingston (R) * | $614,804 | |
| Jim Nelson (D) | $33,221 | www.electjimnelson.com |
|
02 | Sanford D. Bishop Jr. (D) * | $449,114 | www.sanfordbishop.com |
| Bradley Curtis Hughes (R) | $5,220 | |
|
03 | Lynn A. Westmoreland (R) * | $762,817 | |
| Mike McGraw (D) | No Data | www.mikemcgrawforcongress.com |
|
04 | Cynthia A. McKinney (D) * | $162,321 | www.cynthiaforcongress.com |
| Henry C. "Hank" Johnson, Jr. (D) | $59,840 | www.hankforcongress.com |
| John F. Coyne, III (D) | $4,500 | www.johncoyneforuscongress.com |
| Catherine Davis (R) | $1,429 | |
|
05 | John Lewis (D) * | $364,127 | www.johnlewisforcongress.com |
|
06 | Tom Price (R) * | $1,245,012 | |
| John H. Konop (R) | $51,805 | |
| Steve Sinton (D) | $27,693 | www.stevesinton.com |
|
07 | John Linder (R) * | $497,988 | |
| Allan Burns (D) | $8,724 | www.allanburns.com |
|
08 | Jim Marshall (D) * | $977,815 | www.friendsofjimmarshall.com |
| Mac Collins (R) | $960,739 | |
| James Neal Harris (R) | No Data | |
|
09 | Nathan Deal (R) * | $646,336 | |
| John Bradbury (D) | No Data | www.bradburyforcongress.com |
| Bob Longwith (D) | No Data | |
|
10 | Charles W. Norwood (R) * | $918,991 | |
| Terry Holley (D) | No Data | |
|
11 | Phil Gingrey (R) * | $941,137 | |
| Patrick Samuel Pillion (D) | No Data | www.patrickpillion.com |
|
12 | John Barrow (D) * | $1,255,720 | www.barrowforcongress.com |
| Max Burns (R) | $985,106 | |
|
13 | David Scott (D) * | $634,799 | www.davidscottforcongress.com |
| Deborah Travis Honeycutt (R) | $182,751 | |
| Donzella James (D) | No Data | |
Qualification Data from: GA Secretary of State
Finance Data from: OpenSecrets.org
|
If Democrats retain all prior seats from 2004, under the new redistricting that would mean districts 2, 4, 5, 8, 12, and 13. That leaves Democrats still holding 6 out of 13 seats or 46%. Not exactly blazing red, is it?
Georgia is by far NOT a lost cause. There are plenty of good people out there trying to make a difference. I've included links to their campaign sites. Go out there and chip in a little. We can win back a majority of seats for Georgia, which makes a huge statement. Taking back even a single seat in Georgia is a huge smack in the face to Republicans and proof that insults such as the Southern Strategy will only get them temporary popularity.
Edited for spelling errors.