Take a look at the presidential field. Most people say that Super Tuesday will come down to a liberal and a moderate. Ignoring Sharpton, Kucinich, and Braun, most people see Kerry and Dean as the only two liberals that can make it to Super Tuesday. Gephardt, mostly because of his support of the war, has been lumped together with Clark, Lieberman, and Edwards as the moderates. And so 2004 will have the winner of New Hampshire, either Kerry or Dean, make it all the way into March, while the moderates in the party are forced to fight things out on February 3rd and perhaps into the later dates. But what if?
There is nothing liberal about New Hampshire, and if you were just looking at the states in the primary you would not select it as the battleground for who will be the liberal champion. But this campaign is special. The combination of several very weak liberal candidates (Sharpton, Kucinich, and Braun) and two New England liberals who were going to focus on New Hampshire due to geography (Dean and Kerry) has produced this outcome. Dean and Kerry both are focusing on New Hampshire. Dean and Kerry are both the major liberals. Once the other is knocked out, the liberal champion will go through February winning Maine, Washington, Wisconsin, and the rest of Greater New England, and show up on Super Tuesday to face the moderate champion. It all flows together logically.
But what if Wellstone had lived? Many were hopeful that the champion of the people from the Midwest would run in the 2004 presidential primary. His entry into the race would very quickly change the dynamics of Iowa. The liberal populist against the more moderate populist, Wellstone against Gephardt. Dean was already starting to take off when Wellstone died, but it seems very probable that Wellstone in the race could work to decrease Dean's strength and perhaps suck up enough of the left vote to prevent Kucinich from ever considering a run.
Think of the changes. You'd have liberals Wellstone, Dean, and Kerry. The winner of New Hampshire would no longer have a free ride to Super Tuesday, but would have the possibility of facing Wellstone in industrial areas like Michigan and Wisconsin. A Wellstone win would be a huge boon to the moderates Clark, Lieberman, and Edwards focusing on February 3rd. It removes Gephardt, but instead of allowing Dean to steamroll it just means that the liberals will end up fighting each other in February. And so, with Wellstone in the primary, the winner of February 3rd will have the rest of February to recover while the liberals, not the moderate, bloody each other.
Thoughts?