Wed 8:05 AM: What I said last night basically holds true this morning: The win is by 10%, the margin is just over 200,000, and the delegate margin is +10 for Clinton based on preliminary estimates.
Based on my own metrics below, Clinton perhaps got what she needed to hold off a wave of superdelegates, but got nowhere near the number of delegates she needs. Not only did she not catch up much in pledged delegates (still down by about 150), but that's how many more superdelegates she needs than Obama, and she currently only sets at like +24 in that regard. She not only needs to stem the superdelegate tide, but reverse it. She might have been able to do the former, but I highly doubt she did enough to do the latter.
10:35 PM: Well, I'm not sure if we're going to get much more news tonight. 75% are reporting, and we're looking at about 10% win, about a 200,000 vote margin, and between +15 and +20 delegate count, so I'll probably turn in.
9:46 PM: Total Democratic Primary popular vote total (including MI and FL) passes 30 million
Only one state tonight, but it's a big one - Pennsylvania with it's 158 pledged delegates. It's the largest state remaining, and constitutes 28% of the remaining pledged delegates on the table and about 4.9% of all pledged delegates.
Since Super Tuesday II, things have actually largely gone Clinton's way (or at least as good as she could hope for), as far as the numbers:
a) Obama only picked up 9 net delegates from Wyoming and Mississippi, and holding him to a net single digit delegate gain is probably a win overall for Clinton.
b) Also, she's stopped Obama's superdelegate wave. Yes, he's still gaining on her, but I'm shocked that Clinton still has a superdelegate lead at all at this point, much less a double-digit lead (in my as-official-as-it-gets spreadsheet, her superdel lead sits at 24).
Basically the situation is this:
- If Obama wins, it's game over and Clinton is finished. Unfortunately for Obama, it will be an upset if this happens (and one could argue that he's had ample time to make this Clinton's final stand and has failed to do so)
- If Clinton wins, but in single digits (think less than 15 delegate margin, probably less than 200,000 popular vote margin), then she probably has a very, very slight cling to a reason to keep going, but I'm sure pressure will be immense, and the flood of superdelegates going to Obama will probably re-start.
- If Clinton wins by low double-digits (think the teens, between a 20-30 delegate margin, greater than 300,000 popular vote win), then I think it is a Clinton "win" in the slightest sense of the word. It would, however, reinforce the idea that she has kept what momentum she gained from Ohio and Texas, as well as still showing Obama's inability to win big swing states (at least in the primaries) and may continue to stem the superdelegate tide.
- If Clinton wins big (think greater than 20%, greater than 30 net delegates, greater than 400,000 votes), then it is definitely her win. My "what Clinton HAS to do" spreadsheet shows her needing a net delegate win in the 30s in Pennsylvania to keep on track, and this state is more important than normal since it is the largest state remaining.
Oh yeah, and here are the graphs: