I was listening to Portland, Oregon's progressive talk radio station this morning and got to hear Morning Show host Carl Wolfson interview David W. Moore a former vice-president of the Gallup organization. Mr Moore is also the author of a new book The Opinion Makers, which Wolfson praised highly, and has his own Website, The Skeptical Pollster. His name will may be familiar to those who have read Excelsior1's excellent diary Busted!: Gallup, CBS, USA.Today, etc. Tinkers With Party ID Again. During the interview, the former pollster gave us additional reasons not to panic about Obama's current polling numbers.
Moore below the fold.
OK, hopefully that disgusting pun didn't lose too many of you. I am pretty much going to have to paraphrase the interview's main points from memory as it appears no transcript is available. If somebody out in kossackland can find one, I will update this diary. You can find more details concerning these topics by visiting his Website.
Mr. Moore points out in this interview that the question pollsters usually ask is something along the lines of "If the election was held today, who would you vote for?" The fact is the election is being held November 4th, not today. But if they asked "Who will you vote for on November 4th?", many more people would answer that they didn't know. This is just one way that pollsters push individuals who are basically undecided to make a choice. A substantial number of those who appeared to move to McCain this week and to Obama last week after each man's respective convention are basically undecideds who are paying little attention to the election. When such folks are pushed to make a choice, they give the pollster the name that they have heard the most positive things about recently.
The author gives another reason to be skeptical of polling results. Around 80% of those contacted by pollsters to give their opinion refuse to take part in the survey. This means that their polling data represents the segment of the population that chooses to take part in surveys. How do there views differ from those who choose not to do so? That's an open question.
Carl Wolfson asked his guest about a topic that has gotten a lot of buzz on this site. Do pollsters interview the growing group of mostly younger Americans who have no land-lines. The response was that, Gallup does interview cell phone users, but many firmas do not.
So there really is no reason to despair because the polls don't look as good as we would like, just as there is no reason to proclaim Obama a shoe-in when the polls look good.