This is number 39 in a planned series of 50 entries between now and November, looking at each of the 50 states in terms of every race on that state's ticket--Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate, House, State legislatures--the whole Borscht Belt! Special attention paid to identifying and promoting the most important contests per state.
It’s time! The all-important, solid blue state of NEW YORK is up for discussion (in two parts) at last! Join me below the fold...
http://www.nationalatlas.com/...
This is part two for the Empire State, focusing on the upstate Congressional races. Part one, which took on lower NY, Obama, and the state legislature, is here: http://www.dailykos.com/...
First of all, upstate New York is pretty much any part of New York that you can actually see when looking at a map of the whole United States. Except Long Island. Yes, except that. Anything north of the Bronx is considered "upstate", which is weird until you consider that over half the population of the state lives south of that.
Upstate is a whole different world from New York City, and used to be a prime source of Republican votes, mainly because NYC was Democratic and Upstate hated NYC. As far as they were concerned, NYC sucked up all the tax money, and in return sent all their garbage to pollute the Finger Lakes, and all their worst people to the upstate prisons. That’s gotta feel like a bad deal no matter how you slice it.
However, the big victories of senators Schumer and Clinton in the upstate precincts alone, and the flipping of many Congressional seats in 2006, with the promise of more to come in 2008, are evidence that the days of GOP dominance upstate are over for the foreseeable future. For this we can thank three people—Senators Schumer and Clinton, who were among the first Democrats statewide to pay significant attention to upstate; and George W. Bush, who poisoned the GOP brand by pretty much declaring partisan war on "the whole librul Northeast" without regard to what used to be the GOP’s own territory. Similar results occurred in New Hampshire, but that’s for another diary.
As in Part One, THE BIG ONE for New York is the pending history-making Democratic pickup of the State Senate and the certain end of the Joe Bruno Dynasty. With the State government in solid Democratic hands for the first time since I was born, Democrats will be in a position to redistrict the Republican Senate majority away and redraw the Congressional districts so that any of our challengers who for some reason doesn't make it between now and 2012 will have a much easier shot at it then.
Crookshanks made some sensible comments in yesterday's entry, pointing out the nervousness of some upstaters at the potential dominance of the state by New York City. This was the reason upstate used to vote Republican in the first place. Not only New York, but every state dominated by a large metro area needs to consider the danger of the big blue city throwing its weight around, such that every other part of the state huddles around the opposition party for protection. We can't afford that. Big city liberals need to reach out to wealthy, educated suburbanites against the know-nothing Bible belt fucktards of the extreme right wing, and to the populist rural communities against the Republican billionaires and lobbyists. Our identity as blue states is more important than city v. country squabbling. A solid blue New York can become a shining beacon of liberal leadership, the success of which can be an inspiration to other states to vote Democrat and succeed...or it can become a paralyzed laughing stock, and Texas and the New York GOP will be waiting in the wings to fill in the void. Up to us. A good gesture of good faith, it seems to me, would be for the leadership of the newly Democratic Senate to include some prominent Democrats from Rochester, Syracuse, Albany and Poughkeepsie, and to actively seek out issues of importance to people from upstate. ALL of New York is a potential Democratic safe stronghold, if we are wise enough to keep it.
Here is a look at the Congressional districts you can easily spot on the map:
District 19—John Hall (Inc D). Lower Hudson Valley. Hall is literally a rock star, and the writer of "Still the One", Ted Kennedy’s convention music. There was a time when Republicans were going to target this one specially, but it failed. Safe Dem.
District 20—Kirsten Gillibrand (Inc D). East NY border. This is actually the most +R district in NY (which still makes it socialist heaven compared to east Texas, at +6R), and a candidate other than Gillibrand would be having a tough time of it. Gillibrand, however, has raised more money just for her own race than the entire RCCC, and is a likely bet to coast to re-election. NY has no more red districts.
I’ve liked Gillibrand since before she defeated incumbent John "Bluto" Sweeney, the frat-house wife beater, in 2006. If there was ever a Republican who needed to get his ass kicked by a woman, it was Sweeney. This was one of the guys who brought physical violence to the 2000 Florida recount; a man nicknamed "Congressman Kick-ass" by President Scrappy Doo; a man who used to leave trails of oily hair up and down the halls of Congress as he dragged his knuckles across the floor. And we’ve got Gillibrand to thank for getting rid of him! I understand the janitors are particularly grateful.
I’m including Gillibrand’s link just so you can admire her Persian kitten eyes: http://kirstengillibrand.com/...
District 21—Paul Tonko (D). Albany Metro area. Tonko was a surprise primary winner and will certainly be the election winner, in this open safe blue district previously represented by Mike McNulty.
District 22—The Catskill Borcht Belt, from Poughkeepsie to Binghamton. A safe district created for Incumbent Democrat Maurice Hinchey.
District 23—Farthest Northeast NY, including Watertown and a lot of Adirondak Mountains along the Canada border. This is a swing district at +0 D, but is the only upstate NY district held by a Republican which is not on the map. This time. Incumbent Gooper John McHugh is getting old, and the district is a great candidate to be redrawn out of existence once we get to run the table. We do have a Democratic candidate, attorney Mike Oot. Watch for this one to get some attention in 2010, once neighboring Reps Gilligrand, Arcuri, Tonko and Maffei are more established.
http://www.mikeootforcongress.org/
District 24—Central NY. Mike Arcuri (Inc D) never looked back in 2006 as he took the moderate +D district in an open race when Sherry Boehlert, one of the last moderate Republicans, retired, and they ran a wingnut instead. This year, it looks like the GOP is too busy trying to defend the 25th and 29th to put up much of a fight. Safe Dem.
http://www.arcuri2008.com/
District 25—Syracuse. The first of three Western NY districts that are the hot races to watch (outside of the State Senate) in upstate New York this year. Our nominee in this open district is netroots favorite Dan Maffei, who almost took this seat from long-term incumbent Jim Walsh in 2006. As an open seat, this one is one of the top five Democratic flips in the nation, and leans Democrat on most of the pundit lists. Go Maffei!
http://www.maffeiforcongress.com/
District 26—An open seat in the Buffalo suburbs, formerly solid red and home to such nefarious Goopers as Jack Kemp and Tom Reynolds, but steadily bluing over time. This one was a shocker in last week’s primary, since everyone expected the nominee to be either Jon Powers, the progressive/DCCC-backed candidate, or self-funding "gadfly" (that’s the polite word for him) Jack Davis.
I’m not sure what happened, but in my imagination, there was a huge debate in a hall big enough to fit the whole district, and Davis and Powers were loudly accusing each other of raising taxes, eating babies, racism, Nazism, torturing helpless little animals, support for Bin Laden, George Bush, Michael Moore, and Adam Sandler, and not even liking buffalo Wings. They beat each other with the microphones, thumped their chests, threw dung at each other and missed, nailing revered old grandmothers in the eye. And in the middle of that, Kryzan timidly approached the podium, said, "Vote for me", and walked out, as the crowd erupted in thunderous applause.
All right, maybe I imagined that. And that scenario is probably also unkind to Powers, who was trapped no matter what he did, since if he hadn’t responded to Davis’s filthy wipes, he’d have been the one covered with mud and vulnerable to accusations of Kerrylike weakness, while since he did respond, he "touched the tarbaby" and "stooped to the other guy’s level", and the spectacle was two guys fighting....whatever. Alice Kryzan got the most votes. Will she have the same fighting chance that was expected from Powers? It’s too early to tell. Part of the answer will depend on how much money she can raise, and that’s where you come in. We still have a shot at the trifecta, so please go and donate at the link below. You’ll be joining the Red-to-blue lists and the DCCC. Like a lot of upstate NY, this district is no longer solid red.
http://www.kryzanforcongress.com/
District 27—Buffalo proper. Brian Higgins (Inc D) is safe.
District 28—Rochester and the Ontario shore. A gerrymandered district designed to concentrate Democrats and eliminate the Niagra Falls district formerly held by John LaFalce. It’s not quite as unfair as some other gerrymanders, since they simultaneously got rid of a GOP district in Rockland county downstate, but still, we can do better if we control redistricting. More about that below. For now, the important thing is that this is a safe district for incumbent Democrat Louise Slaughter, who has been one of the first and most frequent Congressional representatives to post on Daily Kos.
District 29—The Southern Tier of West NY, along the PA border and including some Rochester suburbs. The third of the three highly competitive West NY districts, and the only one whose GOP incumbent is not retiring. John "Randy John" Kuhl is one of the more asinine specimens of the GOP: lazy, dumb, and tainted with domestic violence. Eric Massa, a navy officer and aide to Wesley Clark, came very close in 2006, and is back for a rematch. We should nurture our rematches—as I often mention, Newt lost three times before he won, and our better democrats like Massa can do the same. Maybe get in on the second try, even.
http://www.massaforcongress.com/...
REDISTRICTING UPSTATE NEW YORK: New York is likely to lose two districts come 2011, and Democrats are expected to run the table on redistricting. It is possible to redraw New York to have NO REPUBLICAN DISTRICTS AT ALL. In Part one, I showed how one of the two lost districts will be the 3rd. Today, I’ll show how to eliminate the existing 23rd (which is by itself +0D, with an incumbent Republican nearing retirement), and make all the other ones safer.
NY will have ten upstate districts, numbered 18 through 27. Here’s what I propose, in the order in which they will be drawn, with a few maps for reference:
WEST NY:
http://www.nationalatlas.com/...
District 27—Erie County will have more than enough population for one district, barely. Draw it within the four corners of Erie County, leaving the north border open, and fill it in from the South up, including just enough of Buffalo to make the district +3 D or so and ensure Higgins’ safety.
District 26—all of upper Erie County that is not in the 27th (all the suburbs from the existing 26th should be in the 27th), plus all of Niagra and Orleans Counties, then moving into Genesee and points south as necessary. It should NOT go into Monroe County, but should cover the Western border of it. This is an attempt to re-create the old LaFalce, Niagra Falls-based district, expanded into part of what used to be the Reynolds district to the south. If Kryzan wins the existing 26th this year, she will be super-safe from redistricting on. If not, a Democrat will win it in 2012.
District 25—All of Monroe County, plus, as necessary, Wayne, Cayuga, Livingston and Ontario, in that order. Designed for Louise Slaughter’s home base of Rochester.
District 24—should be entirely within Onondaga (Syracuse) and Oswego, to make a safe district for Dan Maffei. This will be the first of four districts that split the population of the existing 23rd into fourths. Oswego is the biggest population center of the 23rd.
NORTH NY:
http://www.nationalatlas.com/...
District 20—The Gillibrand district will START by taking in all of Clinton, Franklin and Essex counties, then go south along the Vermont border, following existing boundaries until it runs out. Plattsburgh is a blue stronghold similar to Burlington, and redrawing the district this way should make Gillibrand safer.
District 21—The Tonko/Albany district will now include ¼ of the population of the 23rd, including Eastern St. Lawrence, Hamilton, Fulton, and Herkiner (the stovepipe county sticking up out of the existing 24th) before turning sharply Southeast to get to Albany. It might lose Schoharie County. A lot of the new territory is empty Adirondak Mountain range, so it’s not as drastic a change as it might seem. Plus, this district and the Hinchey one to the South used to be drawn to concentrate Democrats. The 21st can absorb a lot of moderate to conservative rural voters and still be safe.
District 22—the Arcuri district will still be centered in Utica, but will lose Herkiner and take in all of the St. Lawrence river border and East Lake Ontario—all of the 23rd not given to the 20th, 21st and 24th.—West St. Lawrence, Jefferson, Lewis, the rest of Oneida, and Madison.
SOUTH NY:
http://www.nationalatlas.com/...
District 23—The new 23rd will be roughly the old 29th—all of the Southern tier that is left over after the other Western districts are redrawn. It will include blue Chautauqua County, on Lake Erie, and could be made safer by taking in Ithaca and/or Binghamton to the east, or it could jog to the north and include the bottom of the old 24th. What to do will depend on whether Eric Massa gets elected and re-elected. The district could become safe Dem on its own over the next two to three years, or it could need some help.
District 19—the Maurice Hinchey district will take in more Catskill territory from the 24th and 20th. If it also loses Ithaca/Binghamton, we’ll have to be careful to give it corresponding territory in the East, the bluest that the bottom of the old 20th and the top of the old 19th have to offer.
District 18—the John Hall district gets what’s left over between downstate and upstate. I’m not worried about this one, since the district will likely take territory from the existing 18th and 17th, making it bluer than before. Better to first draw the Hinchey district safe Dem.
What do YOU think?
Previous diaries in this series, including THE BIG ONE for each state:
Delaware(lower house of the State Legislature): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Arkansas(Obama, for want of any other contest): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Illinois(Dan Seals, IL-10): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Texas, Part One(Michael Skelly, TX-07): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Texas, Part Two(Rick Noriega, TX-Sen): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Utah(building infrastructure): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Massachusetts(Using our majority to govern well): http://www.dailykos.com/...
North Carolina(Kay Hagan, NC-Sen): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Hawaii(Using our majority to govern well; also, preparation for Governor, possible open Senate race in 2010): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Mississippi(Ronnie Musgrove, MS-Sen): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Oregon(Jeff Merkley, OR-Sen): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Ohio(Tie: Obama, and State Legislature, both houses): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Maryland(Frank Kratovil, MD-01): http://www.dailykos.com/...
North Dakota(State Legislature, upper house): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Alabama(Bobby Bright, AL-02): http://www.dailykos.com/...
California, Part one(Charles Brown, CA-04): http://www.dailykos.com/...
California, Part two(Russ Warner, CA-26): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Vermont(Gaye Symington, VT-Gov): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Iowa(Rob Hubler, IA-05): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Virginia(Obama): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Wyoming(Gary Trauner, WY-AL): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Pennsylvania (State Legislature, both houses): http://www.dailykos.com/...
New Mexico(Harry Teague, NM-02): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Kentucky(Bruce Lunsford, KY-SEN): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Nebraska(Scott Kleeb, NB-SEN): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Friggin’ IDAHO (Larry LaRocco, ID-Sen): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Maine (CHEERS to Tom Allen, ME-Sen): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Wisconsin (State Legislature, both houses): http://www.dailykos.com/...
New Jersey(Linda Stender, NJ-07): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Oklahoma (Andrew Rice, OK-Sen): http://www.dailykos.com/...
South Dakota(State Legislature, upper house): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Colorado(Obama): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Georgia(Jim Martin, GA-Sen): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Rhode Island(governing well): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Michigan(State legislature, upper house): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Alaska(Mark Begich, AK-Sen): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Missouri (Jay Nixon, MO-Gov): http://www.dailykos.com/...
West Virginia (GORGEOUS Anne Barth, WV-02): http://www.dailykos.com/...
South Carolina (Linda Ketner, SC-01, Rob Miller, SC-02): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Nevada (Jill Derby, NV-02): http://www.dailykos.com/...
New York, Part One (State Senate): http://www.dailykos.com/...