Steven Waldman, the editor of Beliefnet.com, writes on a Wall Street Journal blog:
[The alliance of Evangelicals and Catholics for the GOP] may be changing. A series of new polls show that while Barack Obama has made very little headway among evangelicals – even moderate evangelicals — practicing Catholics are now distinguishing themselves from their evangelical allies.
The economy and the Iraq war have taken its toll here, as well as traditional economic issues. But it seems that after being wooed on "values", some Catholics have seen fit to see through the GOP.
We may be seeing that some Catholics are critical of the GOP and not reflexive Republican voters--thus undermining Karl Rove's grand plan. It started with Iraq:
In 2004, for instance, vast majorities of traditional white evangelicals (85%) and traditional white Catholics (70%) thought the war in Iraq was "justified," but since then, conservative white evangelical support for the war has declined to 76.8% but conservative Catholic support has plummeted to 46.8%, according to the National Survey of Religion and Politics conducted by John Green at the University of Akron. (By "traditional," Mr. Green means those who attend church more and hold theologically traditional views).
Waldman goes on to note in the above survey that there's about a thirty point difference in upholding traditional marriage, with traditional Catholics at about 58% and Evangelicals at 86%.
And on the environment it's even better as those Evangelicals who want stricter regulation fell 15 points and went up nearly 4 points among Catholics.
And here's the wedge, not only on issues but philosophy:
During the most of the last two decades, the issues that drew them in the Republican direction – crime, welfare, abortion – were dominant. Now, the issues that have always tugged in the Democratic direction – the economy and health care – have become significantly more important.
The Iraq war also may have ruptured their connection to the conservative coalition. Traditional Catholics supported the Iraq war even though their beloved pope, John Paul II, did not. Liberal Catholics oppose the church all the time, but bucking the church was an uncomfortable position for many traditional Catholics. After the war went sour, they have lost some trust in the broader conservative coalition.
And I think trust...on the economy, on the war, on simply saying what you mean and not lying your ass off is a winning play.
And for anyone who's "helped" out by painting Catholics and the Church as a stereotype, here's food for thought:
"No matter how conservative a parish or a community may be, the pope and the bishops are saying stuff about immigration, the environment, and the war that trickle down," says Alexia Kelley of Catholics United, a progressive Catholic group.
That's right. The pope and the bishops.
Not all bishops are the same, and what is the focus in one diocese is not the focus on another. And I will wager you $700 billion dollars in Lehman stock that when Vice President Biden goes to visit the Vatican, he isn't refused communioin.
So IMHO this goes to the need to reach out and Catholic-bashing will drive the moderates away. You'll know the GOP is scared when they bring up the "they hate your faith" arguments about the leftist blogs.
Of course there is work to be done. But a lot of Catholics know that the theocons like Michael Novak et al were wrong. Plain and simple wrong on Iraq, and the "free market" has never been a Catholic position. That's where the economy is a plus to woo Catholics. I've mentioned Rerum Novarum by Pope Leo XIII before, and I'll mention it again. I have also mentioned Pope John Paul II decrying unfettered capitalism and the need to help the poor in Latin American, and these things, if the ordinary Catholic cannot quote them, are still part of the Catholic mindset.
As Waldman notes:
This doesn’t necessarily translate into Catholic votes for Sen. Obama. There’s still plenty that traditional Catholics dislike about him, including his views on abortion. The Catholic bishops continue to criticize pro-choice politicians, including Sen. Biden.
Though Sen. Obama is still doing better among white Catholics than Sen. John Kerry did in 2004, the gap has closed in recent weeks. But what is clear is that conservative Catholics are no longer marching lockstep with evangelicals.
Note above that it's the loudest bishops who are criticizing, not necessarily the most.
The GOP used to be good at wedge politics. Here's a wedge we can use in the right way, since we're correct on the war, the economy, health care, etc. Peace out.