I had a look last night at the internals for Public Policy Polling's poll of SC-02, which shows Joe Wilson and Rob Miller in a statistical dead heat (Miller up, 44-43). One number jumped out at me more than Miller's lead. It was the ideological breakdown. Only 40 percent of respondents identify as conservative. By comparison, 48 percent consider themselves moderate, and 12 percent liberal.
Now, PPP may be a Democratic polling firm, but it has a pretty solid reputation--as most of you know, it was bang-on with polling North Carolina in the presidential race. So if these numbers are at all accurate, it's a very, very ominous sign for Wilson even if Miller doesn't send him into retirement next year. It's a clear sign that what was once a blood-red district is a ticking time bomb--one that might blow up on Wilson someday, even if it isn't in 2010.
Wilson's declining margins in the district seem to bear this out. He succeeded 30-year incumbent Floyd Spence in a 2001 special election, taking 73 percent of the vote. He won the seat in his own right in 2002, and the Democrats didn't even put up a candidate. He was easily reelected in 2004. In 2006, against the very same Democratic opponent, Wilson appeared to win a fairly solid victory, with 62 percent of the vote. However, he won by 30,000 fewer votes than he did in 2004. Then in 2008, Gotterdamnerung--he only beat Miller by a little under 26,000 votes. It was actually even closer than that--if a few thousand votes in Wilson's home base of Lexington County had gone the other way, we'd have been saying hello to Congressman Miller.
I'd been nervous at first that the South Carolina Repubs could gerrymander the hell out of the state if we don't get the governorship back in 2010. SC-02 is an obvious target for a gerrymander. But if PPP's numbers are accurate, there's really not a whole lot they can do. This district is clearly swinging away from the Repubs--and it'll be a long time coming. For those who don't know, the 2nd has been in Repub hands since 1965. That year, the district's two-term Dem, Albert Watson, had his seniority taken away for supporting Goldwater in 1964. He resigned, ran for his own vacancy as a Repub and won. Watson gave way to Floyd Spence in 1971, and Wilson took over in 2001.
All told, the demographics could not look worse for Wilson long-term. About the only way it can be held off is a South Carolina-style DeLaymander--and there's no way we in the Carolinas are gonna let that happen.